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Science holds its last great mysteries up to the light [top 25 unanswered questions]
Times Online ^ | Mark Henderson

Posted on 07/02/2005 3:23:31 PM PDT by Asphalt

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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
Where did you get the absurd notion that cancer mainly strikes people over child-bearing years?

On average, each person who dies from cancer loses an estimated 15 years of life.

National Cancer Institute

The source of HIV is almost purely behavioral, and thus far more preventable and far less in need of a vaccine.

The source of HIV is a virus. In North America, the risk is pretty slim if you don't engage in a few high-risk behaviors, but the rest of the world isn't North America. And there are behavioral factors in cancer as well -- giving up tobacco use, for starters.

>The cause of cancer is still undetermined. Some pathologists and oncologists believe it is rooted in a virus, others in genetic failure, others in environmental toxins.

Or various combinations of the above. The evidence for some environmental hazards (tobacco smoke, radiation, sun exposure) is clear. The evidence of genetic and viral factors is emerging, but looks strong.

But this much is known about cancer: that it is an uncontrolled increase in the number of malignant cells attacking the vital cells. Once they find a cure/vaccine for ONE type of cancer, it will set up a rapid domino effect for all other types.

That's a supposition on your part. What seems clear to me is that different cancers form by different mechanisms, and it's looking increasingly unlikely that one "silver bullet" will emerge that will keep them all from forming or contain them all once they do.

I don't know how you can honestly claim that finding a vaccine for HIV is more important than finding a vaccine for cancer.

Show me an area with 25 million cancer patients, any of whom could spread cancer to others. That's the UN estimate for sub-Saharan Africa.

81 posted on 07/03/2005 1:10:24 PM PDT by ReignOfError
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To: ReignOfError
First, this:
"On average, each person who dies from cancer loses an estimated 15 years of life,"

is a misleading statement. It does not necessarily mean that each person who died from cancer was elderly and would have only lived 15 more years. That statistic also takes into account the statistic that IF each person who died from a cancer had not died at the time they did, they would probably have died within 15 years. This is due to weakened immune systems and other factors. Age is irrelevant. This is why the statistic of likelihood of death for survivors for nearly all cancers reduces in five-year cycles. Simply put, if you're still alive after 5 years, you have X% of living another five. If after 10 years, X+X% of living another five years, etc.

As I and others and you have stated, HIV is spread through behavioral choices resulting in the transmission of bodily fluids. Those who have it and those likely to get it, regardless of the ostensibly alarming numbers you quote, is a finite number in that it is limited to those who engage in the "risky" behaviors (unprotected sex, intravenous drug use). The unfortunate numbers of those infected who do not engage in those behaviors (the victims of deceit in sexual relationships, rape, recipients of infected transfusions) is very small.

Your original post made the point of wanting to find a vaccine for HIV for "Darwinian" reasons. Well, for purely cold, "Darwinian" reasons, the race would be better off without the numbers who are willfully spreading HIV. How has this risky behavior and its consequences benefited society or the human race? It hasn't. It is purely destructive.

But the above is not an argument that I would like to make. My goal is to eliminate the greatest suffering from the greatest number of people. To me, cancer strikes those who may have lived the "perfectly healthy" life, whatever that may be. HIV tends to strike those who are largely aware of the risks, who make a choice to engage in a behavior.

To me, our time and finances, our scientific and medicinal effort has a greater worldwide and generational benefit by being spent on finding a cure/vaccine for cancer than for HIV.

I believe it is this qualitative issue where you and I disagree. So be it.
82 posted on 07/03/2005 1:51:32 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Just what does the FreeRepublic spell-checker have against hyphenated adjectives?)
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To: JimSEA

No politics, just bidness. Gotta keep the grant money rolling in.


83 posted on 07/03/2005 1:56:01 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (Grant no power to government you would not want your worst enemies to wield against you.)
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To: Dog Gone
Why do men have nipples?

So Rodney Dangerfield could tell audiences, "I don't get no respect. I was breast-fed by my father."

84 posted on 07/03/2005 2:02:35 PM PDT by Gumlegs
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To: Asphalt; zeugma
You posted first but some of us had some fun over here at least for a little while ...
Top 25 Big Questions of Science
;-)
85 posted on 07/03/2005 2:28:41 PM PDT by Tunehead54 (In honor of our bravest in armed service to our nation.)
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
First, this: "On average, each person who dies from cancer loses an estimated 15 years of life,"

is a misleading statement. It does not necessarily mean that each person who died from cancer was elderly and would have only lived 15 more years.

Of course not. It's an average. But HIV not only claims more years of life per patient, it's often passed on to children.

And just to clarify, I'm not arguing against cancer funding or that funds should be reallocated from cancer to HIV. This argument is an idle exercise over the top 25 questions in science, and I'd certainly hope that science as a whole is looking into a lot more than 25. We're a big enough country to walk and chew gum at the same time.

As I and others and you have stated, HIV is spread through behavioral choices resulting in the transmission of bodily fluids. Those who have it and those likely to get it, regardless of the ostensibly alarming numbers you quote, is a finite number in that it is limited to those who engage in the "risky" behaviors (unprotected sex, intravenous drug use). The unfortunate numbers of those infected who do not engage in those behaviors (the victims of deceit in sexual relationships, rape, recipients of infected transfusions) is very small.

Your original post made the point of wanting to find a vaccine for HIV for "Darwinian" reasons. Well, for purely cold, "Darwinian" reasons, the race would be better off without the numbers who are willfully spreading HIV. How has this risky behavior and its consequences benefited society or the human race? It hasn't. It is purely destructive.

In North America. The journal's stated issue was human questions, not American questions. In Africa, the only way to avoid "risky behavior" is to avoid unprotected sex with anyone, ever. I don't think I need to explain why that is selected against. If the alternative to death is celibacy, it amounts to the same thing after a generation.

But the above is not an argument that I would like to make. My goal is to eliminate the greatest suffering from the greatest number of people. To me, cancer strikes those who may have lived the "perfectly healthy" life, whatever that may be. HIV tends to strike those who are largely aware of the risks, who make a choice to engage in a behavior.

If you subtract smokers and sunbathers, who knowingly engage in risky behavior, from the rolls of "innocent" cancer patients, I'd wager that there are more "innocents" with HIV than cancer worldwide.

To me, our time and finances, our scientific and medicinal effort has a greater worldwide and generational benefit by being spent on finding a cure/vaccine for cancer than for HIV.

I disagree, primarily because HIV is infectious and cancer isn't. AIDS in this country hasn't lived up to the most dire predictions from the '80s, in part because educational efforts have been fairly successful, and in part because it entered the US in insular pockets of the population, and has remained mostly contained.

But when 25 million people on one continent are carriers of a virus that mutates rapidly, there's a potential pandemic waiting to happen. That's 25 million walking petri dishes that could form a variant that spreads through casual or semi-casual (think mono) contact. Even without that mutation, it's whistling past the graveyard to believe that an infectious agent that is endemic on one continent will stay more or less contained there.

I believe it is this qualitative issue where you and I disagree. So be it.

Fair enough, and I thank you for presenting well-thought-out and civil arguments.

86 posted on 07/03/2005 2:44:51 PM PDT by ReignOfError
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To: Gumlegs

That's the first definitive answer I've seen that makes sense.


87 posted on 07/03/2005 3:26:46 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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