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Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows
The Sunday Times ^

Posted on 05/08/2005 8:21:59 AM PDT by velyrorenry

CLIMATE change researchers have detected the first signs of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream — the mighty ocean current that keeps Britain and Europe from freezing.

They have found that one of the “engines” driving the Gulf Stream — the sinking of supercooled water in the Greenland Sea — has weakened to less than a quarter of its former strength.

The weakening, apparently caused by global warming, could herald big changes in the current over the next few years or decades. Paradoxically, it could lead to Britain and northwestern and Europe undergoing a sharp drop in temperatures.

Such a change has long been predicted by scientists but the new research is among the first to show clear experimental evidence of the phenomenon.

Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, hitched rides under the Arctic ice cap in Royal Navy submarines and used ships to take measurements across the Greenland Sea.

“Until recently we would find giant ‘chimneys’ in the sea where columns of cold, dense water were sinking from the surface to the seabed 3,000 metres below, but now they have almost disappeared,” he said.

“As the water sank it was replaced by warm water flowing in from the south, which kept the circulation going. If that mechanism is slowing, it will mean less heat reaching Europe.”

Such a change could have a severe impact on Britain, which lies on the same latitude as Siberia and ought to be much colder. The Gulf Stream transports 27,000 times more heat to British shores than all the nation’s power supplies could provide, warming Britain by 5-8C.

Wadhams and his colleagues believe, however, that just such changes could be well under way. They predict that the slowing of the Gulf Stream is likely to be accompanied by other effects, such as the complete summer melting of the Arctic ice cap by as early as 2020 and almost certainly by 2080. This would spell disaster for Arctic wildlife such as the polar bear, which could face extinction.

Wadhams’s submarine journeys took him under the North Polar ice cap, using sonar to survey the ice from underneath. He has measured how the ice has become 46% thinner over the past 20 years. The results from these surveys prompted him to focus on a feature called the Odden ice shelf, which should grow out into the Greenland Sea every winter and recede in summer.

The growth of this shelf should trigger the annual formation of the sinking water columns. As sea water freezes to form the shelf, the ice crystals expel their salt into the surrounding water, making it heavier than the water below.

However, the Odden ice shelf has stopped forming. It last appeared in full in 1997. “In the past we could see nine to 12 giant columns forming under the shelf each year. In our latest cruise, we found only two and they were so weak that the sinking water could not reach the seabed,” said Wadhams, who disclosed the findings at a meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.

The exact effect of such changes is hard to predict because currents and weather systems take years to respond and because there are two other areas around the north Atlantic where water sinks, helping to maintain circulation. Less is known about how climate change is affecting these.

However, Wadhams suggests the effect could be dramatic. “One of the frightening things in the film The Day After Tomorrow showed how the circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is upset because the sinking of cold water in the north Atlantic suddenly stops,” he said.

“The sinking is stopping, albeit much more slowly than in the film — over years rather than a few days. If it continues, the effect will be to cool the climate of northern Europe.”

One possibility is that Europe will freeze; another is that the slowing of the Gulf Stream may keep Europe cool as global warming heats the rest of the world — but with more extremes of weather.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: archaeology; climatechange; dramaqueen; ggg; globalwarminghoax; godsgravesglyphs; history; suvs
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To: lepton
True. Yet in five years or so, the trends in the North Atlantic and their significance will be much clearer due to the strength of the current data and of the historical record; but the global warming controversy will still be a confusing, inconclusive gabfest based all too much on models and on the hype and fear that underpin ecopolitics.
161 posted on 05/10/2005 5:21:06 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: ancient_geezer
I've heard that water vapor can effect temperatures way more than CO2 content. (And I don't doubt that CO2 is negligible.)

Personally, I think that the enviralists latched onto carbon dioxide as a "cause" of global warming because the planet Venus, which has an extremely hot surface, has an atmosphere of CO2 and sulphur dioxides and they just couldn't help drawing parallels, no matter how full of crap they are.

162 posted on 05/10/2005 5:30:09 PM PDT by Excuse_My_Bellicosity (Proud infidel since 1970.)
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To: lepton

all that be adjusted for though. If we can figure out how much a star tens of millions lights-years away weighs, I think we can figure that much out.


163 posted on 05/10/2005 6:02:44 PM PDT by velyrorenry
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To: lepton

On balance, I think that the better choice is probably to keep cutting back on particulates and other pollutants. There are valid public health and environmental reasons for doing so, and at this point the biggest economic hit will fall on the horrific smokestacks and air pollution of Russia and Asia.

Im addition to the prospect of cutting CO2 production through cheap, high efficency solar cells becoming possible through nanotechnology, I suspect that the US has some unrevealed global warming options based on secret climate modification research.

The recent drop in atmospheric particulates may be less important to climate change than an apparent natural lessening in cosmic rays and their consequent generation of ions and subatomic particles. Remarkably, these seem to have a crucial role in producing clouds and lightning.


164 posted on 05/10/2005 6:16:26 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: velyrorenry

Global warming brings global cooling which will probably bring global warming which in turn will be the forbearer of more global cooling -----and all caused by my car?


165 posted on 05/10/2005 6:49:50 PM PDT by Exit148 (Founder of the Loose Change Club. Every nickle and dime counts!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Good info on prehistoric CO2, thanks.


166 posted on 05/10/2005 7:20:53 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Excuse_My_Bellicosity

I've heard that water vapor can effect temperatures way more than CO2 content. (And I don't doubt that CO2 is negligible.)

Molecule for molecule, water vapor is 80 times more powerful as a thermal agent.

The net effect of major contributers to the greenhouse effect adjusted for atmospheric concentration and thermal characteristics are in the following table

Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System
Mankind's impact is only 0.28% of Total Greenhouse effect
http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

  Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "Greenhouse
Effect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED)

Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted for heat retention characteristics  % of All Greenhouse Gases

% Natural

% Man-made

 Water vapor 95.000% 

 94.999%

0.001% 
 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 3.618% 

 3.502%

0.117% 
 Methane (CH4) 0.360% 

 0.294%

0.066% 
 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 0.950% 

 0.903%

0.047% 
 Misc. gases ( CFC's, etc.) 0.072% 

 0.025%

0.047% 
 Total 100.00% 

 99.72

0.28% 

 

And that does not take into account water's capacity to reflect solar radiation away from Earth in the form of Couds and ice.

167 posted on 05/10/2005 8:02:03 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it!!)
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To: Eepsy
iI swear just a few months ago I read an article saying how much hotter Britain was getting and at the end of the century all the native plants would have died out and they'd be growing banananas. I wish these scientists would make up their minds./i

Last year, Britain experienced an unusually hot summer! Got to the 100s, tarmac melted and people died all over from heat stroke.
168 posted on 05/10/2005 8:05:04 PM PDT by Rose of Sharn
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To: velyrorenry

How can this happen with global warming?


169 posted on 05/10/2005 8:05:13 PM PDT by sport
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To: Jaded

;') I kinda like it -- St Elmo's Fire for the hippie generation.


170 posted on 05/10/2005 10:15:47 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FR profiled updated Tuesday, May 10, 2005. Fewer graphics, faster loading.)
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To: fanfan
My pleasure.
The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850 Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Nino and the Fate of Civilizations The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization
The Little Ice Age:
How Climate Made History 1300-1850

by Brian M. Fagan
Paperback
Floods, Famines, and Emperors:
El Nino and the Fate of Civilizations

by Brian M. Fagan
The Long Summer:
How Climate Changed Civilization

by Brian M. Fagan

171 posted on 05/10/2005 10:27:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FR profiled updated Tuesday, May 10, 2005. Fewer graphics, faster loading.)
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To: Grampa Dave; Dog Gone
Actually most pickups without a camper shell get lower mileage than the SUV version with the same engine and transmission.

The tailgate is the culprit. Nothing like a 4-5' wide and 2' high wind blocker going down the road to whack your mileage.

I seem to remember a study posted here a while back that shows that the tailgate does not serve as a wind blocker. In fact the people who are removing their tailgates (or going to the open net type thingies end up getting slightly lower MPG

The closed tailgate forms a pocket of mostly stagnant air in the bed of the truck. There is little exchange between this pocket and the general airstream flowing over the truck. This causes a decreae in air resistance as the truck does not have to pull the amount of air that it normally would.

A semi pulls behind it a large volume of air as the transition from the large square trailer creates a huge drag zone immediately behind it. On a pickup this drag zone is greater with the tailgate open than with it closed.

Referring to the nascar truck picture earlier on the thread, the closed deck over the bed is intended to decreas drag. And it does. However at normal highway speeds the air exchange between the bed and the airstream is not high enough to need a closed bed.

As an experiment you can do at home place a crumpled up ball of paper (or if you live in the country an empty beer can) in the bed and go for a drive. for most of the ride the ball/can will move around some but it won't leave the bed.

I wish I could remember when the study was posted. I'll try to find it.

172 posted on 05/11/2005 6:38:02 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: John O

Please post it and ping me.

My sons had pickups without camper shells and when they added shells, their mileage increased significantly.


173 posted on 05/11/2005 6:55:49 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (The MSM has been a WMD, Weapon of Mass Disinformation for the Rats for at least 5 decades.)
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To: Grampa Dave; Dog Gone
Here's a couple links.

From Car Talk

A study from University of Michigan

Both showing decreased MPG due to increased drag from leaving the tailgate down or removing it.

174 posted on 05/11/2005 7:23:41 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: Grampa Dave
My sons had pickups without camper shells and when they added shells, their mileage increased significantly.

The michagan study touches on this a little. Apparently a lot of the mileage decrease with an open tailgate is due to airstream impact with the bed of the truck. With a shell there is no airstream/bed interaction.

175 posted on 05/11/2005 7:25:34 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: ancient_geezer

"Remember the story of Moses and the burning Bush"

Too funny. I am going to steal that one!


176 posted on 05/11/2005 8:18:10 AM PDT by FatherofFive (Choose life!)
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Greenland Ice Cap Is Melting, Raising Sea Level
Source: The Associated Press
Published: Jul 20, 2000 - 04:05 PM Author: By Paul Recer
Posted on 07/20/2000 14:37:50 PDT by Ms. AntiFeminazi
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3977712e1941.htm


177 posted on 04/02/2006 1:38:43 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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