FORECASTS OF TORY ‘CATASTROPE’ AND EXAMINING THE PARLIAMENTARY SEATS AT RISK
A bad sign for the Tories: The Daily Telegraph, a respected and pugnacious right-of-center newspaper, is forecasting a “catastrophe” for the Conservative party. Analyst Anthony King:
YouGov's final campaign survey for the Telegraph - based on interviews yesterday and the day before with nearly 4,000 electors across Britain - suggests that the Tories are heading for yet another catastrophic defeat. Far from improving their position during the final days of the campaign, they have apparently slipped back.
According to YouGov, 37 per cent of voters have already cast postal ballots for Labour or seem likely to vote Labour today. For their part the Conservatives began the campaign on 35 per cent, but only 32 per cent want to back them now.
But I’m looking at two lists of the 100 most competitive seats in Parliament – one in the London Times and one in the London Independent. (They overlap a great deal, but not completely.)
Currently the Labour Party has a 160 seat margin in the 659 seat Parliament – a majority that appears to be pretty much maxed out. The Times sees the Labour Party targeting only five Tory seats, the Independent lists 10.
There are 50 Labour seats that the Tories could win according to the Independent; 43 according to the Times. The Tories also are aiming at 15 Liberal Democrat seats according to the Times, 10 by the Independent’s count.
The Liberal Democrats – the third party somewhat analogous to the Green Party here in the U.S. – are targeting 10 Labour seats according to the Independent, 15 to the Times. Their top man Charles Kennedy has been campaigning heavily in these Labour districts. But both papers say the Liberal Democrats are also eyeing 20 Tory seats (including Michael Howard’s Folkestone & Hythe seat).
Looking at the range, it seems safe to say that the absolute best case scenario for Labour would only give them a few more seats. Much more likely, their majority sinks to the low three figures, although some are predicting it to shrink to half its current size.
Conservatives have the most “low-hanging fruit” – seats where just a slightly better performance by their candidate, or a worse performance by Labour, would swing the seat. In fact, by my estimate, if the Conservatives picked up just 15 percent of the third-party total in the closest races (using figures from the 2001 election), they would gain 16 seats. A twenty percent increase would yield about 20 seats.
The Liberal Democrats have almost as much low-hanging fruit as the Conservatives – and one figures they’ll be picking up a good share of anti-war Labour voters who want to punish Blair. It’s almost impossible to imagine they won’t pick up seats, with a safe prediction placing their pickup in the range of 15 to 20 seats.
Walter Rodgers on CNN International, a moment ago: "Due to some draconian election laws, we're not allowed to talk to voters after they cast their ballot. We're not allowed to say which issues matter most to voters, as that could be seen as attempting to influence the election. We're not even allowed to mention the candidates' names. So, later tonight we will see if Prime Minister X has been reelected for a historic third term. And if you really want to know what the voters think, go to a pub, and buy them a pint of ale."
