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Danke für diesen ausgezeichneten Überblick Doktor Stochastic.

Of the four examples you gave I think the "Brownian motion" one is the best applicable to what we're dealing with here, since most of the explanation for abiogenesis will be rooted in chemistry, biochemistry, electromagnetism, and geophysics. The example of the die, which I know gets into frequencies, appears much too simplistic for application to a situation such as a "theoretical pre-biotic earth." Quantum mechanics does not appear suitable to chemistry and "relative independence" would seem applicable if we were dealing with "panspermia" as an explanation for the origins of life on earth, but not abiogenesis in its usual form.

I think the central problem we will have is that there are both a large number of known variables of unknown quantities and a large number of unknown variables of unknown quantities which seems to mirror your example of "some surprises" when you described the type of randomness inherent in Brownian motion. But I do want to think about this a bit more.

Your post was extremely helpful. Thanks again.

Betty, sorry, I forgot to address you on the last post.

I do think the Brownian motion model is good for most "random" systems in biology. In a large system, say the size of a few cells in an organism, Brownian motion provides most of the "randomness" with a small kick from QM (radioactive decay leading to mutation). Selection is more of a "relative independence" type of thing. Selection criteria for a group of individuals need not have any relation to the chemistry of the cell (lions and tigers and bears eating antelope, for example.)

Of the four examples you [Doctor Stochastic] gave I think the "Brownian motion" one is the best applicable to what we're dealing with here, since most of the explanation for abiogenesis will be rooted in chemistry, biochemistry, electromagnetism, and geophysics.

I'm not a mathematician, but the above seems right to me too. I've said before that until we get to creatures like us, with some degree of free will, I suspect that -- after the moment of creation -- the whole ball-o-wax is determined.