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To: Alamo-Girl; Doctor Stochastic; PatrickHenry
I just did a quick read of that post Alamo-Girl and I'm coming back here to let you know that I'm aware it is there, but I also recognize that we are heading into a discussion about "randomness" and I am hoping Doctor Stochastic, who I am pinging here, may help out as a "moderator" on this subject, since we want to be careful to keep the friendly tone of the discussion intact. And I think we may need to get our discussion of "randomness" in and of itself well in hand before we apply probability theory to molecular biology, as Yockey's work will bring us to do. I want to repeat what I posted above, that I do take Yockey seriously and I want our discussion of him to reflect that fact.

So Doctor Stochastic, if you get a free moment, could you comment on what I posted above in #281 on randomness? And if you, or anyone else for that matter, can think of others whose opinions may be useful please ping them as well.

And Alamo-Girl, I'm still pretty busy, but I want to get back on the "Atheist" thread and catch up to you. I'm just stopping by now for a minute while I'm between work tasks.
286 posted on 12/15/2004 11:35:30 AM PST by StJacques
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To: StJacques

I'll look at this tonight. The term, "randomness" is often misused. I've got some comments, naturally.


287 posted on 12/15/2004 12:19:42 PM PST by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: Doctor Stochastic; tortoise; StJacques
I very much look forward to your discussion of randomness! I'm pinging tortoise also because of the need to "square" randomness and complexity in its various forms.
289 posted on 12/15/2004 7:34:28 PM PST by Alamo-Girl
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To: StJacques; Alamo-Girl; tortoise; PatrickHenry; longshadow; RadioAstronomer
I think you posting #281 does get at most of notion of "randomness" in evolutionary theory. I would like to give some illustrations of "randomness" in computation and physics. These are not exhaustive nor deeply explained (if they were, I would just publish them somewhere, like in Erkenntnis, just because it has a nice consonant cluster.)

For this discussion, I'll just "random" to mean processes that satisfy the usual axioms of probability. (Kolmorogov is sufficient, but other interpretations are OK, Fineti for example.) The idea is that probability applies to any system that satisfies these axioms. In one sense, "random" phenomena must (or may) be described by averages.

One example is in the computation of averages or distributions in a game. One has a complete description (example: a die has probablity of 1/6 to show the numbers 1 to 6), and thus one can compute everything. It's sort of randomness through saturation. One assumes a large number of trial games and also assumes that these games will obey the same rules each time.

A second and much more interesting "random" system is given by Brownian motion. Consider a particle (dust, pollen, dust mites, etc.) being bombarded by even smaller particles (molecules) many times per second. Einstein (and others) developed the theory of the motion of such particles. There are some surprises; the velocity of the test particle cannot be defined, but it's position can. A test probe small enough to measure velocities would be subject to Brownian motion of the same size as the test particle and thus would yield no useful information. (Experiments bear this out; by 1900 or so, people knew that velocity could not be defined for Browinian particles.) Even though this system is deterministic in the sense of Laplace, there is no method (even in theory) to measure the exact conditions of the experiment. One must resort to averages. The system can be easily simulated deterministically though.

A third type of randomness would be that implied by quantum mechanics. Single particles act "randomly" and there is no method of resolving such even with simulation. (Exact simulation of quantum systems takes an exponentially large amount of time.) In this case, one must resort to probabilistic descriptions (albeit, not classical probability) to describe such systems even in principle.

The fourth "random" system would just to consider "relative independence" of events. For example, a cosmic ray may be produced on Sirius and strike a germ cell on Earth, causing a mutation. An observer won't see any connection between the local environment of the germ cell and goings on at Sirius. Similarly, a volcano (or a pack of wolves or a piano falling from the 13th floor of a hotel) may wipe out a person (dog, cat, plant) before that person can reproduce and thus kill off the person's genetic contribution. However, nothing in the physics or chemistry of DNA caused the volcano to errupt.

"Random" events (as I'm using the term) are those which may affect the outcome of an observation, but are not themselves (necessarily) implied by the physics of that observation. The lightning example is more like Brownian motion that the other forms. One cannot measure the boundary conditions well enough to exactly predict a lightning bolt, but one can do very well with averages. For example, high points (steeples, trees, golf clubs during a backswing) get struck relatively often.

290 posted on 12/15/2004 8:23:00 PM PST by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: StJacques
"Randomness" means a number of things, and is mostly a convention for "my predictive model is too simple to have utility". In any finite context, it does NOT mean non-deterministic, only means that the relative entropy between the predictor and the actual process has the same complexity as the predictor output itself. Strong pseudo-random number generators work this way, processes with very little complexity but no low-order patterns that can be tractably perceived via induction as a practical matter in our universe (true geometric complexity in time and space puts a damper on that -- O(2^n) is a killer). They will appear "random" by every mathematical measure of their output, even though we know they are not by definition.

This leads to a somewhat interesting situation for physicists in that no apparently "random" process can ever be definitively asserted to be non-deterministic, as even simple deterministic processes are capable of having this apparent property. When you get right down to it, "random" tells you almost nothing about the nature of whatever process you are describing with it. But being able to assert determinism is useful for a few theoretical purposes even if you never figure out how to look inside the box.

It really starts to get interesting when you start considering the fundamental theoretical nature of bias (both intrinsic and apparent) in probability distributions.

293 posted on 12/15/2004 9:11:29 PM PST by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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