China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.

During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.

Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.

In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”

Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.

China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.

Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.

Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.

Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.

Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”

Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.

As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.

Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.

He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”

Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.

Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.

During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.

According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)

If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.

Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.

The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.

This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.

The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.

According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.

Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.

He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.

China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).

China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.

The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).

Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.

There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.

Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).

Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”

Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.

In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.

Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.

Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.

By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.

By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:

Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.

Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.

Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.

New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)

Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.

Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.

Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.

Maybe you're a first class loon who smokes too much crack before posting non sequiturs, just prior to signing up for elective surgery of a cephalorectomy. I have reviewed some of your posts and many of them are borderline asinine.

There are significant cultural differences that would be strikingly obvious.
***On the BATTLEFIELD? Exactly how would it be strikingly obvious.

Kevin: None of these rabbit trails address the issue that once Americans see their aircraft carriers on the downside of sinking/burning/radiating or whatever, they will lose stomach for the fight.
Poohbah: Maybe you're a "don't-ask-don't-tell" liberal pansy. But you are a minority.
***How do you get from someone pointing out something about Americans to your personal attack comment? You yourself have done something in a similar thread when you posted, "I've asked these folks, point-blank, if Mr. and Mrs. America will still support their policies after CNN shows the results during the breakfast hour." At least have the courtesy of understanding the thread before posting.

"On a side note. If North Korea (a nation possessing nuclear weapons by its own admission) should launch some "test" missle into the Western Hemisphere... I would detonate on Pyong Yang before it got wherever it was going..."

I'd wait for it to hit first. That way if it was a nuke, a formal declaration of war could be made followed by carpet bombing with neutron weapons until there is not a single living thing within NK borders. I call it the YAD policy. Your Assured Destruction. Then you walk in after the radiation disperses, lower all the NK flags (putting up US flags into their place), and bury all the corpses in mass graves. Then contact Century 21.

India wouldn't have to rattle the saber, just recognized Taiwan as an independent nation...and then trade with her as an independent nation as should the rest of the world.

I don't think India would do this (recognize Taiwan), as this could jeopardize it's negotiations with China over its disputed territories with China. Something really drastic has to happen in its relations with China, for India to take such a step.

I think America selling Aegis equipped ships will still have to deal with the same problem-time.It would take atleast 4 years to build & close to an year for Taiwan to train crews to operate the ship,given that they haven't operated anything as sophisticated or large as Arleigh Burke class ships(if that's what they will get).A good midterm option would have been for the US to sell/lease the 6 Ticonderega class Aegis equipped cruisers which it recently took out of service.The problem would be that these ships carry an older variant of the Aegis battle management system & use conventional twin arm missile launchers(they don't have VLS as later ships do).That reduces both the number of SM-2s as well as firing rate,both of which are crucial against Taiwan.Moreover,it can't launch the SM-2 Blk4 or SM-3 missiles which are primarily aimed at intercepting ballistic missiles.I would prefer Taiwan having atleast 8 Aegis equipped destroyers as 4-5 are of limited use against 600 ballistic missiles & another 500 cruise missiles(in the words of US defense analyst).Moreover it would vastly improve Taiwan's anti-surface & ASW capabilities.

Heck,no one would openly do it,including probably the US,let alone India.India though ,does have increasing trade links with Taiwan & about an year back,an Indian military delegation had a "brief stopover" in Taiwan on their way to Japan.

Maybe a new 'NATO' type alliance...Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand or si there something in place that could be reasserted or expanded? SEATO?

India would not enter into a military alliance with Pakistan under the present circumstances. I also don't see Pakistan betraying their patron saint- China.

"They would view a formally independent Taiwan as a humiliating political defeat. "

Yes, there is often this issue of having to save face in Chinese culture. In many ways it probably prevents them and the Taiwanese (similar cultural viewpoint) from coming to the right course of action.

"I don't think India would do this (recognize Taiwan), as this could jeopardize it's negotiations with China over its disputed territories with China. Something really drastic has to happen in its relations with China, for India to take such a step."

True they might not do that, but they would use the extra bargaining power created by the US and other nations recognizing Taiwan. They could say: "We'll hold off joining them in recognizing Taiwan, but you'll have to give us this & this etc...

"Yes, there is often this issue of having to save face in Chinese culture. In many ways it probably prevents them and the Taiwanese (similar cultural viewpoint) from coming to the right course of action."

I see that mainly in China. I think it would be considerably easier to convince the Taiwanese govt to abandon the Republic of China name when declaring independence and become the Republic of Taiwan.

"Their ballistic missile technology is improving every day. It won't be surprising if in 5 to 10 years their tactical ballistic missiles will be accurate enough to pick particular buildings within a targeted base to hit. Send a 100 or more missiles at each base, and there's not enough left standing to mount a defense with. "

With that kind of missile accuracy, hitting as large a target as an aircraft carrier would be just as easy, except that the big boxes move. However, the algorithms for finding a big, boxy radar/infrared signature on the open sea are very straightforward. I'm sure the free traders have already transferred that technology.

"Well I hope we have a strong administration should that happen, somone who will not give into the press's lies and disonformation."
***I would hope so, too. That's why I have so much trouble understanding this announcement:

Would U.S. sacrifice Taiwan? Official says America not required to defend island
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1306400/posts

My suspicion is that George Bush might be willing to throw Taiwan under the bus to satisfy his free trade contingent. I sure hope that isn't the case. And he's picking up a bias by listening to his dad who was the Ambassador to China.

You're not putting yourself in their shoes. From their perspective I'm sure they think they are the nicest people and the saviors of mankind and true & wonderful communists, so there would be no reason for Taiwan to secede from their wholly benevolent union.

Well Taiwan is not a part of China. It was ceded... ohh I already typed that a million times but just go look up "Taiwan History"

***On the BATTLEFIELD? Exactly how would it be strikingly obvious.

That's easy. Taiwan bases their military after our own, going for tactics, quality and technology instead of sheer numbers. In addition to that the Taiwanese officers are competent in english (for the whole US-Taiwan military integration thing).

I'd wait for it to hit first. That way if it was a nuke, a formal declaration of war could be made followed by carpet bombing with neutron weapons until there is not a single living thing within NK borders. I call it the YAD policy. Your Assured Destruction. Then you walk in after the radiation disperses, lower all the NK flags (putting up US flags into their place), and bury all the corpses in mass graves. Then contact Century 21.

I agree wholeheartedly! We would not need to wait for it to hit, just calculate its trajectory and point of impact (NORAD has computers that do this).

Well somthing drastic has to happen anyway. The US can no longer remain neutral for long, not with China supporting Iran (giving military aid, ballistic missile technology and assisting its nuclear program).

The Kidd-class destroyers (they have two with the other two to be delivered next year) can launch SM2 (dunno which kind) although it uses the twin rail launchers. For ASW operations they is so squiet that it actually operates offensivly against submarines. Taiwan has been upgrading a lot of its ships with the VLS system as well.

I see that mainly in China. I think it would be considerably easier to convince the Taiwanese govt to abandon the Republic of China name when declaring independence and become the Republic of Taiwan.

They are already in the process of doing that. Companies with names as "China Shipbuilding" "China Steel" etc will be "Taiwan Shipbuilding" and "Taiwan Steel" next year. Official government documents now alrweady have "Taiwan" in place of "Repblic of China." This has been going on for months.

Has Taiwan already recieved 2 Kidds??well that's news to me.I think they launch an early variant of the SM-2 which has a range of around 70kms(SM-2 Block2??) with limited anti-missile capability.From what Ive read,the Kidds are good multi-purpose platforms,but I don't think they are stealthy by any means.They have considerable RCS.Ive read that Taiwan is planning upgrades on a lot of it's frigates like the French built Kang Ding class & American origin OHP class frigates-but these type can't carry anything more than a 16 or 32 cell launch system & they also don't have advanced radar & command systems like the AEGIS or APAR.So their ability to fully use the SM-2 will be stunted.Those ships will probably mount the ESSM medium range SAM & maybe even anti-submarine rockets.

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