Posted on 11/04/2004 7:27:03 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Oh, no question the obstacle is high at 100K. But the Secy of State site gives the raw numbers for 2000 PBs. It was about 100K and 86% were valid votes.
My calculation is 155K (this year's PB total) X 0.86 = 133000.
That 133K number is smaller than Bush's lead, but that's not the threshold of concern. That lead is about 2.5% of the vote. I am under the impression there is an automatic recount at 0.25% of the vote, which is 10 times less, or 13K. So if the gap closed 133K - 13.3K = 120ishK, we're in dangerous territory.
There may be recounts allowed if requested maybe inside 0.5%, but with the concession I discount that concern.
So, there are 133K (if the 86% holds true) valid PBs and 120ishK must go Kerry. That's 90% and no, that split is very unlikely. But . . . it's mathematically possible.
I want it impossible.
Absentee ballots generally favor the Republicans (who are smart enough to ask for them.)
I also wonder if some of the absentee ballors are military. If so, they'll break heavily for Bush (75-25?)
why hasn't Blather been fired yet?!He's sickening and gross.
90% is pretty darn close to a mathematical improbability. The provisionals are usually from a good cross section of the state's votes.
I hope your concerns do not become a reality, because a pointless recount would really be a pain in the butt to endure.
Good!
Well maybe a thousand are military, who voted late. The absentees that are not counted, are the ones which came in a couple of days before the election or later. Absentees are generally GOP, but the Dems made their own big effort this year. Provisional votes have about a 10% Dem bias vis a vis where they come from in general, but if the GOP challenged a lot of voters, the percentage might be higher. Of course, a fair chunck will be thrown out.
Nod.
All of Iowa's military absentees certainly haven't been coutned. That's probably another few hundred at least for Bush.
Face it Libs. He took Iowa. He took New Mexico too. That's 286, and he took TWO states that went DUKAKIS. HEHEHEHEHE.
Kerry would have to have a huge margin in those absentee and provisional ballots to win. Chances are about 1% or less.
Worst case, W will still win by 65,000, methinks.
Even the Cleveland ballots won't go 90% for Kerry. Maybe 70% tops.
From the Secy of State's site, about 22K of the 155K are from Cleveland. The rest elsewhere with proportional amounts in big GOP counties. There seemed to be no particular skew to Dem counties. Felt much better when I saw that, but best would be to get some actual interim numbers.
"If we only could whittle away Wisconsin too, I'd stop hearing this Bush won by one state nonsense that some liberals are claiming."
I agree, Wisconsin has a small margin for Kerry. Do you know if all other states will be counting provisional, as well as absentee ballots?? They all should.
Now, just hold your alpacas, you young whipper snapper. A presidential race is like a sweet young lass from County Kildare. We aren't a' callin' it until she's as ripe as a Kansas nectarine. And far as I can tell, this thing is as tight as a too tight pair of Levi's jeans clinging to the buttocks of a construction worker who's put too much sugar on his provolone. So hold up for a minute. You need chill out like a glatt kosher pickle about to be ingested by an obese Satmar in the middle of Williamsburg, who...
(More seemingly incoherent rambling from a senile anchorman tossing off elaborately constructed similes that make absolutely no sense whatsoever.)
That issue was addressed quite clearly on election night, well the next day anyway, that the rate for the 2000 provisionals was under Ohio's own rules.
Since that time congress passed a law, forget what it's called, outlining new rules for provisionals. Under the new rules, using Cook county Illinois I believe, the rate was only between 7 and 23 %, in that range. Even if one were to give them 50% and all for Kerry he cannot make it up. It's a done deal.
And sure Bush could challenge Wisconsin, but I don't think he's in the mindset to put the country through another 2000 as it might play aginst his successor in 2008. Probably to little effect, but under today's "rules" you can't give them any ammo whatsoever. FWIW
HELP AMERICA VOTE ACT OF 2002.
What was Congress thinking? Morons.
SEC. 302. <> PROVISIONAL VOTING AND VOTING INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS. (a) Provisional Voting Requirements.--If an individual declares that such individual is a registered voter in the jurisdiction in which the individual desires to vote and that the individual is eligible to vote in an election for Federal office, but the name of the individual does not appear on the official list of eligible voters for the polling place or an election official asserts that the individual is not eligible to vote, such individual shall be permitted to cast a provisional ballot as follows: (1) <> An election official at the polling place shall notify the individual that the individual may cast a provisional ballot in that election. (2) The individual shall be permitted to cast a provisional ballot at that polling place upon the execution of a written affirmation by the individual before an election official at the polling place stating that the individual is-- [[Page 116 STAT. 1707]] (A) a registered voter in the jurisdiction in which the individual desires to vote; and (B) eligible to vote in that election. (3) An election official at the polling place shall transmit the ballot cast by the individual or the voter information contained in the written affirmation executed by the individual under paragraph (2) to an appropriate State or local election official for prompt verification under paragraph (4). (4) If the appropriate State or local election official to whom the ballot or voter information is transmitted under paragraph (3) determines that the individual is eligible under State law to vote, the individual's provisional ballot shall be counted as a vote in that election in accordance with State law. (5)(A) At the time that an individual casts a provisional ballot, the appropriate State or local election official shall give the individual written information that states that any individual who casts a provisional ballot will be able to ascertain under the system established under subparagraph (B) whether the vote was counted, and, if the vote was not counted, the reason that the vote was not counted. (B) The appropriate State or local election official shall establish a free access system (such as a toll-free telephone number or an Internet website) that any individual who casts a provisional ballot may access to discover whether the vote of that individual was counted, and, if the vote was not counted, the reason that the vote was not counted.
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