Posted on 10/31/2004 5:11:07 PM PST by VAGOP
Just reported by Aaron Brown on CNN-
Calm down all my friends. Note Gallup decided to take poll on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We know from watching Rasmussen that is our worst days. We go out Friday nights, spend Saturdays with the kids, and Sunday some go to church and watch football. Their best days and still we are 2 ahead. Also, I am working hard in Florida and we will bring home Florida. The 20k or so Military votes coming in will help also. They are not polled. Phones in Iraq, Korea, Afgha.... don't work too well over there. SMILE!!!!!!
Two decades ago, it was only Harris vs. Gallup. Whatever happened to the Harris poll?
Now that most of the poll numbers are in, our job is to get out the vote. God will take care of the rest. If it is His will to let W to finish the job He gave him 4 years ago, W will surely win.
The 20k or so Military votes coming in will help also. They are not polled. Phones in Iraq, Korea, Afgha.... don't work too well over there. SMILE!!!!!!""
Gosh, ya know I never even thought of that!! Don't they? I'd have to say that's a bit of an oversight, don't ya think?
what % was the undecided, and what what the relative % allocated to each?
Most logical prediction.
Also the polls may not cover a lot of people with cell phones only, and a lot of these people tend to be people with jobs who may lean Republicans. Young people use cell too, but their voting percentage tend to be a lot lower than seniors / retirees who tend to have land lines only.
Bookmark and reminder to check this after election for accuracy.
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Do you know the male/female breakouts for 2000?
Yeah, but they manipulated the results into a tie by allocating the 2% undecideds to Kerry, which seems very unreasonable to me - I think they're trying to hold out hope to Kerry supporters to maximize their turnout! I don't think any polling organization which was truly 'objective' would say "here's 2% undecideds, let's assume they all go to Kerry."
I'll bet they have no way of accounting at all for overseas military votes...? Those should go 4-1 or at least 3-1 for Bush.... but maybe all the liberal whackos overseas like Kerry's sister Diana will cancel them out?
Where did you get these internals? I don't see on gallup.com. Thanks.
I'll take 269-269
14 - 6 = 8
Even if you have slightly more women than men, Bush wins the election by at least 5 %
Nope. Don't forget Kerry does great with transsexual voters.
2000 2004
South Bush +17 Bush +16
East Gore +21 Kerry +13
West Gore +8 Bush +3
Midwest Bush +3 Bush +5
Do you know what is the wieghting they took in this poll?
i.e. % R, % D, % I.
"...1980 when Reagan tarred Carter when it was supposed to be somewhat close."
I'm hoping (aren't we all here?) that 2004 will make Kerry into the Carter figure of our time. Even though Kerry's not the incumbent, he's benefitted enormously from the massive bias of the liberal MSM. What if a few % of the electorate, once in the voting booth, really can't bring themselves to vote for Kerry after all? I'm certainly not one of the polling gurus here, I'm just fantasizing that maybe, just maybe on Tuesday, a few million people will come to their senses and we'll have a thumping victory for Bush rather than a squeaker!
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