WISCONSIN SURPRISE (RNC internal polls show Feingold 48, Michels 43, from 52/39 4 days ago)

The Corner/NRO ^ | 10/30/04

[Cableguy]

I'm skeptical about Republican Tim Michels beating Democratic senator Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate race, but a friend at the NRSC just sent me tracking numbers that show Feingold's lead slipping from 13 points to 5 points in four days:

10/26 -- Feingold 52 percent, Michels 39 percent
10/27 -- 51-41
10/28 -- 49-41
10/29 -- 48-43

Some Republicans have said all along that Wisconsin is their dark-horse race.

[greatvikingone]

Feingold is a serious gaffe.

[Kozak]

A significant number of Republicans in this state, who stated they were supporting the President, were also supporting Feingold. I bet a lot of these have realized the folly of that position, and are swtiching to Michaels. Osama isn't going to help Feingold either. Michaels is a former Army Ranger and Feingold has been terrible on defence issues. Cross your fingers.

[reformedliberal]

Our issues/support surveys of identified Rs who will vote included Michels since 3 weeks ago. Michels has name recognition in the state. Finegold is not there for constituents outside Madison.

3 weeks ago a Michels staffer told me he was w/in 5. These might be the low end internals. We have voter ID for our side down to the platted parcel, so the internal polling included precinct and turnout and issues.

Anecdote/not data: In the SW rural area of WI, Michels signs out number Finegold signs and Michels signs are shown w/BC04 signs, while Finegold may be shown w/Kind or a local candidate, but rarely w/Kerry.

The $660k at the last minute was to cover expenses incurred, while the withdrawal at the beginning of October of $1.2M had been targeted for anti-Finegold ads. I am not sure that the withdrawal wasn't because Tim didn't need to slam Finegold and our base hates the negativity. I do know that in the 3rd District, the Donks were slacking off after the RNC w/drew funds from Michels and the only appearance here of Finegold was to a small affair in the home of some carpetbaggers from the East Coast who returned to run a family business.

Dubyah could help Tim win. There will be some Dem crossovers who will vote W and Finegold, so it is hard to call.

[reformedliberal]

It was Senator George Allen (R-VA), head of the RNC Senatorial Committee. I saw him on Fox News Sunday and he had Corzine frowning and fuming. Corzine was slow on the uptake and totally off his usual smarmy game.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Yeah, that's right. Thanks.

[Buzz Crutcher]

The dems have put themselves in a bit of a catch-22. They drone on and on about Kerry's military service decades ago, and in doing so they've helped make the case for Michels, a 12-year vet who is also a business exec with an MBA from the U of Chicago.

[jneesy]

i think the biggest suprise to the msm and the dems this election is our gotv its gonna hit em like a mack truck

[Keith]

...from your lips to God's ears...

...I think you are right, too.

[third try]

ping

[sergeantdave]

Was flipping thru the tube the other morning and landed on C-Span. Saw a bunch of looney left wingers drooling all over the table, chewing the socialist fat and whining about how they couldn't get their progressive agenda thru. You know - gun control, evil SUVs causes global warming, why don't you stupid people let us run your life. Thought I had tuned into a commie meeting in Paris or something.

So the camera pans to the right and there sits Feingold. Whoooa, Nellie! It was a progressive/commie/fascist radio station from Mad Town - Madison, Wisconsin, home of lefties wearing propeller beanies and conspiracy theories on their shirtsleeves.

To make it short, Feingold is a loon. He should be floating on a pond in some backwater wilderness hole with the other ducks, quacking nonsense.

Wisconsin, I'd send my condolences to you, but I have to deal two lunatic senators myself. Anyway, good luck. Hope you grill this turkey on election day.

[Warlord]

take advantage of information that is not available"
What would that be?
"This means more precision, not less"
Why would internal polls be more precise?

Among other things, campaigns, especially national campaigns flush with money, have far superior turnout information through their GOTV efforts. The internal polls use this superior information in establishing the demographic parameter that many deem to be the most important. As such, the internal polls will be more precise. Fresh internal polling (as opposed to stale polling) is rarely leaked because its usefulness in setting campaign strategy and tactics. Now that the final strategies and tactics are being put in place, we'll likely hear more about internal polls as the campaigns try to create buzz.

[Soul Seeker]

The RNC recently provided another 600,000 for Michel's campaign.

I'm not certain he'll win, but I do believe they wouldn't have diverted that money if they didn't believe he had an opportunity.

[Cableguy]

What does polling have to do with GOTV? You do polling via random dialing of telephone numbers. If you interfere with that, then you don't have a random poll. You get biased results. Hence my initial comment which stated that the internal polls tend to be biased.

Internal polls are valuable because it gives insight into what the other sides are seeing. Not because it is more or less accurate than other polls.