Skip to comments.Why more blacks support Bush this year (excellent article)
Posted on 10/26/2004 7:39:10 AM PDT by milwguy
According to two polls released over the week just passed, President Bush has picked up significant ground among black voters. A New York Times poll showed black support for the president at 17 percent. A poll of larger scope done by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an organization specializing in studying black issues, showed 18 percent black support for Bush. Although black support at this level for Bush/ Cheney is still low, it nevertheless represents a doubling of the 8 percent of the black vote that the Republican ticket received in 2000.
In a race that seems to be shaping up as a neck and neck horserace, it can make all the difference for the president to pick up an additional 9 percent of the black vote.
Although some have expressed surprise that the president is notably picking up new support among black voters, those who have been reading my columns over the last several months will be less astonished by these results. I have been writing that traditionally Democratic voters in the black church going community are becoming disillusioned with the Democratic Party and that, in particular, the gay marriage issue has become a focal point of that disillusionment.
The results of the Joint Center poll, which was an extensive survey of current black political attitudes, bear out my observations. Support for Kerry among black Christian conservatives is now 49 percent, 20 points lower than the 69 percent that Al Gore received from this group in 2000. Bush's support among this same group, now at 36 percent, is more than triple what he received in 2000.
The black community is by and large a religious community. When surveyed, blacks respond at higher rates than whites that religion plays a "very important" role in their life.
The interesting reality over recent years has been that blacks have not taken their faith with them into the voting booth as do whites. Regular church attendance has been a reliable predictor of voting behavior among whites, with church goers disproportionately voting Republican. Among blacks this has not been the case.
The gay marriage issue may very well be the tip of the iceberg of change among the black electorate. Gay marriage, and claims equating the gay movement to the civil rights movement, has been a wake-up call. Black pastors and their congregants are waking up to the fact that the liberal agenda that they have been supporting all these years does not liberate but denigrates, dehumanizes, and enslaves. They are beginning to see the liberal agenda, the welfare state agenda, as a moral problem, undermining the dignity and responsibility that makes men and women free
I'll believe it when I see it confirmed Nov 2. The democrats own the black vote.
Of course Zogby says that this is not true. I do think Bush will get a larger percentage of the black vote this time around simply because a large portion of black democrats will stay home.
Some interesting ruminations here.
Will be interesting to see the truth of it next Wed.
The truth is that it would be great for Bush to increase his share of the black, Hispanic, and Asian vote. It really would, but if he does not increase his share of the white vote over his weak (for a winning Republican) 54% last time then he will lose.
Whites make up close to 90% of the electorate in most of the midwestern swing states. He could double his percentage of the black vote and bump up his Hispanic support to 40% and still lose if does no better with whites.
I'm not black, but I can tell you if I was, I would be livid and insulted by demographical targeting campaigns. Burger King does it. They specifically target blacks with their commercials.
The DNC does it too. Eventually the black community in the US is going to catch on that it's subtle racism in that they are being taken advantage of and coddled to with no real, genuine intrest in the well-being of the black community. They just want the vote.
Wake up and smell the coffee. The DNC doesn't care about the blacks. They only care about their own agenda's.
If you want on (or off) of my black conservative ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail. (And no, you don't have to be black to be on the list!)
Extra warning: this is a high-volume ping list.
I live in Mississippi and have encountered many conservative black folks who have big proglems with the Dems on social issues. I remember when I was a child and everyone I knew voted Dem because they "were for the poor folks." Over time they realized that was no longer true and I think many black Americans are coming to realize it too.
BTW, breaking 20% with the black voters will be a significant point for the GOP, as it will do several things. First, it will help eliminate districts with functionally no Republican members. This should help with the fraud problem. Second, it's important that black voters see black Republicans. Many black people fit comfortably within Republican ideology, but socially, it made it tough at family events, etc. to be the only Republican in a room full of Democrats.
If I were running for office, and I never will, here is the speech I would give when addressing particularly inner city black neighborhoods:
The Democrats have kept every promise they ever made to you. They promised projects. They promised welfare. They promised abortion. They promised to eliminate the influence of Faith in public policy. When we look around the inner cities, we see projects, abortion clinics and people on welfare. As Republicans, we have a different vision. We want everyone to have jobs, homes, and be able to practice their faith. We do not believe abortion is necessary to keep the population under control. We see young people as assests to our futures, not detriments. We see a future of cities with homeowners, businesses providing jobs, intact families, and churches. We don't want people living off welfare in projects, aborting their children because they fear they can't afford them. When people live like that, they vote Democratic. When they have a future to build upon, they vote Republican.The emergence of a significant black middle and upper class is one of the best kept secrets in the United States. All we've gotta do is keep plugging and believe it or not, we could carry over 50% of the black vote. Not in this election, but soon. Sooner than a lot of people think. A lot of blacks I know are getting tired of being the loss leaders for the homosexual and feminist agendas, which is all they are to the Rats.
Ditto. The following post was at the end of a thread I started the other day (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1255165/posts). Quite interesting.
(quote)And a lot of them won't. Michigan has a same-sex marriage ban on the ballot, and many of Detroit's influential black clergymen support it. Very few will urge their congregations to vote Republican. But more than a few have already communicated a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate.(unquote)
I was a guest in an 8000 member black church in Detroit today and the pastor urged everyone to vote republican. 300 Black ministers are supporting proposition 2, President Bush, and the republican canidates.
69 posted on 10/24/2004 6:14:58 PM EDT by Hillary's Lovely Legs (Teresa Heinz: too much gin and not enough raisins.)
bump for later reading.
No more patronage, its time to take responsibility and join our fellow Republicans in the Elephant tent.
It might also be that pre-Great Society, the Black Church was the safetynet in the community. When people needed financial help, a job, counseling, almost anything, they went to the church. That made the church very powerful. The church delivered "faith based" charity where its morality was intrinsically intertwined with the worldly stuff.
This power of the church had great benefit on stablizing the community. It was the church that motivated children to go to school, even when their parents didn't. It was the church that motivated kids to obey the laws and respect their neighbors.
In destroying the power of the church, the liberal Dems destroyed the community influenced by the church.
Thus, there is a consistent fabric between the truth of faith, and the truth of sociology and community development.
As a resident of the Detroit Michigan area, I can say that I've seem MORE blacks with Bush bumperstickers/yard signs than I ever thought possible. One of my closest friends happens to be black. She and her husband are going to vote for Pres Bush JUST BECAUSE of the gay marriage issue.....and a little bit because Kerry acts like a "plantation owner" (her words not mine). The truth will come out on election day. Blacks will support President Bush in record numbers (over 10%) just because of the gay marriage issue alone.
Rather cynical, but articulate and, sadly, accurate.
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