Skip to comments.Kerry Losing Ground Among White Catholics
Posted on 10/10/2004 10:23:40 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
Could the first Catholic presidential nominee since 1960 lose the election because of the Catholic vote?
Even as Kerry is drawing closer to Bush in general, he is falling farther behind among one surprising and crucial group: white Catholics.
According to a Pew study released Monday, President Bush now leads among white Catholics 49% to 33%. That represents further growth from Pew's September 28 poll which had it at 49% to 39%.
The candidates had been roughly even until August, when Bush began to pull ahead, according to Luis Lugo, director of the Pew Religion Forum. Significantly, Bush won the white Catholic vote by 7 percentage points (he lost the overall Catholic vote, which includes Hispanics, by 2%).
In other words, if the election were held today and reflected these polls, Bush's victory margin among white Catholics would be twice as large against Kerry--the first Catholic major party presidential nominee since 1960--than against the Baptist Al Gore.
This is extremely bad news for Kerry because white Catholics are disproportionately represented in several battleground states with large Catholic populations: Pennsylvania (30%), New Jersey (45.9%), Ohio (28%), Michigan (28%), Wisconsin (34.4), Minnesota (28.7%) and New Hampshire (38.2%).
Kerry has said he plans to give a major speech on his Catholic faith and how it shapes his values "somewhere in the course of the next month."
For Kerry to be doing this badly among Catholics, it most likely he means he's losing not only conservative Catholics but the far larger group of "convertible Catholics," which represent 8.1% of the electorate.
The new polls did not indicate what prompted the shift but in general conservative Catholics have been strong supporters of President Bush's policies on terrorism and abortion. It's less clear why Bush seems to be doing so well among centrist Catholics, who tend to be more liberal on social issues and even tend to be pro-choice on abortion.
Kerry has been far more reluctant to discuss his faith than Bush has, a tendency that aides attribute to a Northeast Catholic cultural aversion to public explications of religion. He and other speakers did speak openly about his faith during the Democratic convention but has shifted back more recently to his pre-convention tendency to avoid the topic.
The 45.9% of New Jersey that identifies as "White Catholic" includes many CINOs who support abortion rights and will vote for Kerry.
might help if he didn't pander and parade around in baptist churches with frauds like al sharpton. It's a mystery why dems. think having photo ops with sharpton will score votes with blacks. Kerry must have a dim view of the intelligence of black voters.
interesting, thanks for posting.
Has Kerry ever "stumped for votes" in a Catholic Church?
I think that Kerry will be making a huge mistake if he makes a speech about his Catholicism. His little announcement during the debate on Friday that he was a Catholic but still believed in abortion made me livid and I wasn't the only Catholic who felt that way. Kerry has made a mockery of the Catholic faith and made all of us look like hypocrites. He should keep his big foot out of his even bigger Botoxed mouth.
Kerry isn't Catholic. Catholic is the adherence to the teachings of the Church. Kerry only pays it lip service.
"I can see his stance of superiority all the way across the Pacific! "
An aussie freeper. I always thought Australia's history mirrored the U.S. more than any other country. Both young countries colonized by surly foreigners. Must get down there some day.
"I suspect that the shift of socially conservative Jews to Bush and Republicans had already occurred "
My sense is that there are more jewish voters than you would expect that will vote for bush. Traditional dem voters are quietly switching due to the administration's stance on israel. When ed koch endorses bush you know that something is strange is going on.
The polls don't show much movement in the jewish vote. I can see lots of reasons it should have moved, and I hope it would have, but no evidence yet.
In in nyc here, where there is a large jewish population, so my only evidence is purely anecdotal. I am surprised by the number of hardcore democrats speaking well about the curent administration. You'd never know it from tuning into the media though. It's sort of an under the table conversion.
No Catholic should be voting for Kerry.
Kerry is a CINO -- Catholic in Name Only.
Any Catholic who votes for him is uninformed!
I agree the CINO's will not hurt Kerry's chances in New Jersey, but it could definitely hurt him in the Upper Midwest, especially in Wisconsin where his "Lambert" Field remark did not help him either. Outside of the shrinking city of Milwaukee and the SF of the Midwest in Madison, the rest of the state and Milwaukee suburbs are Bush country.
There is no surprise here ... Kerry is a CINO. The real surprise is that there are still catholics who do support him.
Catholic Ping - let me know if you want on/off this list
**Has Kerry ever "stumped for votes" in a Catholic Church?**
I think this is against Church law.
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