Most of us seem busy doing something, and for some reason, the median income in real terms just keeps going up. What the US does best, and generates the most highly value added, are things requiring heavy brain power and creativity. I don't expect that to change, since the US sucks up the best and brightest like a vaccuum cleaner - now more than ever.
Geoffrey C. Gradler and Kurt E. Schrammel are economists in the Office of Employment Projections, BLS.
"What do you want to be when you finish school?"
The answers you can give to this question keep changing. Occupations that once offered solid careers are in decline, while positions once unheard of are now among the fastestgrowing. About the only thing that hasn't changed in the past 40 years is the relentlesspace of change itself. Consumer demand, technology, and business practices are all inconstant flux. In today's rapidly changing, international marketplace, it is increasinglyimportant for people who are planning their careers to be aware of what occupations willbe in demand in the future. We can not stop the tide; the best we can do is to know whichway it is running.
For the U. S. economy as a whole, the tide is rising. The $5-trillion economy of 1992 isprojected to reach $6 to $7.2 trillion in 2005. Employment is expected to reach 147.5million in 2005, an increase of 22 percent or 26 million jobs above the 1992 level. Thefollowing pages point out which occupations will benefit most from this growth and whichwill lose out. They give the numerical and percent change in employment and a summaryof job prospects for the 1992-2005 period for about 250 occupations.
The next few pages discuss factors that affect employment in an occupation, describe theassumptions used in making the projections, and discuss general trends.
Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations
Professional specialty occupations
Technicians and related support occupations
Marketing and sales occupations
Administrative support occupations, including clerical
Service occupations Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations
Mechanics, installers, and repairers Construction trades and extractive occupations
Production occupations
Transportation and material moving occupations
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers. Keep in mind that a particular occupation may not follow the trend projected for its group.Therefore, you should refer to the table on pages XX to XX for the outlook in a specificoccupation. An index of individual occupations appears on page XX.
Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Workers in executive,administrative, and managerial occupations establish policies, make plans, determinestaffing requirements, and direct the activities of businesses, government agencies, andother organizations. Workers in management support occupations, such as accountant andauditor or underwriter, provide technical assistance to managers.
Growth due to the increasing number and complexity of business operations will beoffset somewhat by corporate restructuring and downsizing of management, resulting inaverage growth for executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Because theseworkers are employed throughout the economy, differences in the rate of expansion forindividual industries will produce varying rates of employment change for particular kindsof managers and support workers. For example, employment of health services managerswill grow much faster than average, whereas wholesale and retail buyers are expected togrow more slowly than average.
Due to growth in the number of people seeking these positions and the increasinglytechnical skills required, jobseekers with previous work experience, specialized training, orgraduate study have an advantage in competition for jobs. Familiarity with computers willcontinue to be helpful as more managers rely on computerized information systems to helpdirect their organizations. Professional specialty occupations. This group includes engineers; architects andsurveyors; computer, mathematical, and operations research occupations; life, physical,and social scientists; lawyers and judges; social, recreational, and religious workers;teachers, librarians, and counselors; health diagnosing, assessment, and treatingoccupations; and communications, visual arts, and performing arts occupations.Professional workers may provide services or conduct research and are employed inalmost every industry. As a whole, this group is expected to continue to grow faster than average and toincrease its share of total employment significantly by 2005. However, growth rates forindividual occupations are as diverse as the jobs these workers perform. Occupations suchas physical therapist, human services worker, operations research analyst, and computerscientist and systems analyst are expected to grow much faster than average. Others, suchas physicist and astronomer, mining and nuclear engineer, and dentist should grow moreslowly than average. Most new jobs will be in the education, business, and health servicesindustries.
Technicians and related support occupations. This group includes health technologistsand technicians, engineering and science technicians, computer programmers, toolprogrammers, aircraft pilots, air traffic controllers, paralegals, broadcast technicians, andlibrary technicians. These workers operate and program technical equipment and assistengineers, scientists, physicians, and other professional workers. Changes in technology, demographics, and ways of conducting business will cause someof these occupations to grow faster than others. Overall employment is expected to growfaster than average. This group contains one of the fastest growing occupations_ paralegal; its growth will result in part from the increasing reliance of lawyers on theseworkers. Increased demand for health services from a growing and aging population willspur growth for radiological technologist, medical record technician, surgical technologist,and electroencephalographic (EEG) technologist. In fact, jobs for health technologists andtechnicians are expected to account for over half of all the new jobs in this group.Employment of computer programmers will also continue to grow rapidly, as moreorganizations use computers and the number of computer applications increases. Employment growth in other occupations in this group will be limited. For example,because of laborsaving technological advances, employment of broadcast techniciansshould show little change and employment of air traffic controllers should grow slowerthan average.
Marketing and sales occupations. Workers in this group sell goods and services,purchase commodities and property for resale, and stimulate consumer interest.Employment is expected to grow as fast as average because of the increased demand forfinancial, travel, and other services. However, the rate of growth should be slower thanover the previous 13 years because these workers are concentrated in retail trade, anindustry which will grow more slowly than in the past. A large number of part-time and full-time positions are expected to be available forcashiers and retail trade sales workers due to the large size and high turnover of theseoccupations, as well as employment growth. Higher paying sales occupations, such assecurities and financial services sales worker, tend to be more competitive than retail salesoccupations. Job opportunities will be best for well-trained, personable, and ambitiouspeople who enjoy selling.
Administrative support occupations, including clerical. Workers in this group prepareand record memos, letters, and reports; collect accounts; gather and distributeinformation; operate office machines; and handle other administrative tasks.
This occupational group will continue to employ the largest number of workers,although growth is expected to be at the low end of the average range. As a result, theseoccupations will decline as a proportion of total employment by 2005. Despite thetremendous increase expected in the volume of clerical tasks to be done, increasedautomation and other technological changes will limit growth in many clericaloccupations, such as typist, word processor, and data entry keyer; bookkeeping,accounting, and auditing clerk; and telephone operator. In contrast, teacher aide shouldgrow much faster than average as schools increase their use of these workers.Receptionists and information clerks are expected to experience faster than averagegrowth because these workers are concentrated in rapidly growing industries.
Because many administrative support occupations are large and have relatively highturnover, opportunities should be plentiful for full- and part-time jobs, even in slowgrowing occupations. Service occupations. This group includes a wide range of workers in protective, foodand beverage preparation, health, personal, private household, and cleaning and buildingservices. These occupations, as a group, are expected to grow faster than average becauseof a growing population and economy. Higher personal incomes and increased leisure timewill spur demand for many different types of services. This group is projected to add thelargest number of jobs of any occupational group in the 1992-2005 period.
Among protective service occupations, the employment of guards is expected to risemuch faster than average because of growing concern over crime. As the number ofprisoners and correctional facilities increases, more correction officers also will be needed.However, only average employment growth is expected for police patrol officer andfirefighter because only slow growth in local government spending is anticipated. Employment growth will also be faster than average for food preparation and serviceoccupations. Due to the large size, high turnover, and fast growth of many food serviceoccupations_such as chef, cook, and other kitchen worker_both full- and part-time jobswill be plentiful.
Growth in personal service, cleaning, and private household workers will vary widely.Homemaker-home health aide should be one of the fastest growing occupations, in partbecause of the substantial increase in the elderly population. Private household workers,on the other hand, will decline rapidly due to the shift from home to institutional childcare. Among health services occupations, medical assistant_one of the fastest growingoccupations in the economy_and nursing aide, orderly, and attendant will grow muchfaster than average, in response to the aging population and expanding health careindustry.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations. Workers in these occupationscultivate plants, breed and raise animals, and catch fish. Although demand for food, fiber,and wood is expected to increase as the world's population grows, the use of moreproductive farming and forestry methods and the consolidation of small farms areexpected to result in little or no employment change in most of these occupations. Theemployment of farm operators and farm workers is expected to decline rapidly, reflectinggreater productivity; the need for skilled farm managers, on the other hand, should result in average employment growth for that occupation.
Mechanics, installers, and repairers. Workers in this group adjust, maintain, and repairautomobiles, industrial equipment, computers, and many other types of machinery.Average overall growth is expected due to the continued importance of mechanical andelectronic equipment throughout the economy, but projections vary by occupation. Dataprocessing equipment repairer is expected to be the fastest growing occupation in thisgroup, reflecting the increased use of these types of machines. In sharp contrast, twooccupations_communications equipment mechanic, installer, and repairer and telephoneinstaller and repairer_are expected to decline in employment due to laborsavingadvances. Construction trades and extractive occupations. Workers in this group construct, alter,and maintain buildings and other structures or operate drilling and mining equipment.Virtually all of the new jobs will be in construction. An increase in the number ofhouseholds and industrial plants, the desire to alter or modernize existing structures, andthe need to maintain and repair highways, dams, and bridges will result in averageemployment growth in construction. In contrast, continued stagnation in the oil and gasindustries and low growth in the demand for coal, metal, and other minerals will result in adecline in employment of extractive workers.
Because the construction industry is sensitive to fluctuations in the Nation's economy,employment in construction occupations varies from year to year. Many constructionworkers become unemployed during downturns in construction activity.
Production occupations. These workers set up, adjust, operate, and tend machinery anduse handtools and hand-held power tools to make goods and assemble products. Increasesin imports, overseas production, and automation_including robotics and advancedcomputer techniques_will result in a slight decline in overall employment. For a fewoccupations, however, employment growth is expected. Expansion of the printing andpublishing industry, for example, will create average employment growth for printing pressoperator.
Many production occupations are sensitive to fluctuations in the business cycle andcompetition from imports. When factory orders decline, workers face shortenedworkweeks, layoffs, and plant closings.
Transportation and material moving occupations. Workers in this group operate theequipment used to move people and materials. Although overall employment is expectedto grow about as fast as average, prospects vary by occupation. Subway operator willgrow much faster than average as more cities build new systems and expand existing ones.Faster than average growth is expected for school busdriver, and average growth isexpected for taxidriver and chauffeur. These projections reflect rising school enrollmentsand growing demand for transportation services. However, slower than average growth isexpected in the employment of material moving equipment operator because of theincreased use of automated material handling systems.
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers. Workers in these occupationsassist skilled workers and perform routine tasks. Overall employment is expected to growabout as fast as the average for all occupations. Growth will be limited in someoccupations, such as machine feeder, due to automation. Many opportunities will arisefrom the need to replace workers who leave these occupations, because turnover is veryhigh. However, economic downturns may substantially lower the number of openings,particularly for construction laborer and other occupations in industries that are highlysensitive to changes in the economy.
"The Job Outlook in Brief" is only a starting point for the exploration of economicprojections or careers. The projections in it were produced by BLS as part of itsemployment projections program, which develops new sets of projections every 2 years.Besides occupational employment, BLS also projects industry employment, industryoutlook, labor force activity, and numerous components of the gross domestic product.This information is available in a variety of publications designed to meet different needs.
The fall 1993 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly contains more than 40 chartsthat illustrate the economic. labor force, and employment projections. Considerably moredetail is available in the November 1993 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. Thesearticles_along with additional data_are reprinted in BLS Bulletin 2452, The AmericanWork Force: 1992-2005 (price: $X.XX).
Occupational Projections and Training Data,1994 edition, (Bulletin 2451, price: $X.XX) is statistical supplement to the OccupationalOutlook Handbook containing current and projected employment estimates for about 500occupations. It also presents information on occupational separation rates, unemploymentrates, and the demographic characteristics of workers when such information is available. People weighing the advantages of different career choices will probably find two otherBLS publications more useful than the technical ones: Occupational Outlook Handbook,1994-95 edition (Bulletin 2450, price: $X.XX) and "Matching Yourself With the World ofWork in 1992" (price: $1). "The Job Outlook in Brief" provides outlook information in a format that allows easycomparison of job prospects in different fields, employment prospects are not the onlyconsideration when choosing a certain career. Matching your goals and abilities to thework done on the job and the education required is another important part of choosing acareer. Where you want to live and how much money you want to earn also are important.Information like this appears in the Handbook and "Matching."
The Handbook has been a major source of career guidance information for more than 40years. It contains more about the outlook for each of the occupations in the "Brief," aswell as information about the nature of the work, training and personal qualifications,earnings, and other subjects. Originally published in the Fall 1992 OOQ, "Matching" is a20-page, tabular presentation similar in format to the "Brief." Rather than outlook, Ithighlights significant job characteristics, including educational level required, workingconditions, and interaction with data, people, and things (price: $X.XX).
Additional information on job growth also is available from State Job Service offices.The outlook for many occupations varies considerably among local job markets. Forexample, sections of the country with slow population growth may have less need forelementary school teachers than regions with high growth. State Job Service offices, listedin the State government section of local telephone directories, can provide information onlocal labor market conditions. Also, see the section on "Sources of State and Local JobOutlook Information" in the Handbook.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Publication Sales Center P.O. Box 2145 Chicago, IL 60690