This is total crap.
What the heck!! This poll stuff can make a man go bald and make his teeth fall out. DAMN!
The specifics of this poll were posted on the Kerry Spot, they manipulated the poll by polling more Democrats than Republicans and more women than men.
As you wish! (Lotsa pretty red numbers, now!)
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) |
50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 57% | 37% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 60% | 27% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 52% | 40% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 51% | 42% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 44% | 49% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 49% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 42% | 51% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 44% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 14% | 75% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 48% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 56% | 39% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 44% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 62% | 27% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 57% | 42% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 60% | 32% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 60% | 36% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 53% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 47% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 46% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 30% | 61% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 43% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 48% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 54% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 53% | 41% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 63% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 64% | 27% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 45% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 47% | 46% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 43% | 49% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 52% | 41% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 65% | 30% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 58% | 35% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 48% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 33% | 55% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 55% | 37% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 61% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 53% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 61% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 67% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 43% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 52% | 40% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 47% | 48% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 49% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 49% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 62% | 26% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| My personal revising of the above-listed polling results | ||||||
I fully agree, and moreover, they did the same thing in 2000 (they had Gore winning in a blowout on the eve of the election, even in such deep red states as Louisiana, Tennesseem and Kentucky). They definitely lean about 6-7 points to the left of just about everyone else. But is ARG a Rat biased poll or merely a non-affliliated left-biased poll?
Well that settles it. Bush should shuffle his campaign staff 2 or 3 times immediately and try to get a consistent message out right away.
dims are so dim.
OK, it is ARG, and it does have both PA and FL in Kerry's column, although recent polls I've seen have Bush with a 3-4 point lead in FL and 1-2 point lead in PA BUT...
I have noticed a continual downward trend since the beginning of the month with the EC vote. Bush averaged about 312 right after the convention, and ever since has gone down in each subsequent count (RCP and EV included) Now he's down to approx 288. At this rate he will lose the electoral college. Hopefully we'll plateau soon (waiting nervously for debates)
I think these polls help us to keep our eye on the ball. We can't get too comfortable.
NARA: Federal Register: US Electoral College
http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/faq.html