Today's Outbreak of Polls

The Bushian upward trend appears to be continuing unabated. As the various scandals about CBS' forged documents, recent revelations about Kerry's activities in Vietnam, and the generally unlikable personality of John Kerry becomes more widely known, Kerry has been steadily moving downward, and Bush moving back up. Combine this all with the fact that undecideds on election day usually tend to stick with the incumbent, and we could be looking at a serious Bush landslide, something which I honestly would not have thought possible even a month ago.

Jim Robinson's Master List Of Articles To Be Excerpted

Outbreak of Polls

The Bushian upward trend appears to be continuing unabated. As the various scandals about CBS' forged documents, recent revelations about Kerry's activities in Vietnam, and the generally unlikable personality of John Kerry becomes more widely known, Kerry has been steadily moving downward, and Bush moving back up. Combine this all with the fact that undecideds on election day usually tend to stick with the incumbent, and we could be looking at a serious Bush landslide, something which I honestly would not have thought possible even a month ago.

Let's take a look at the good polling data coming out today, shall we?

Florida - The latest SurveyUSA poll has Bush up in this state by six points, 51%-45%. This is the widest lead Bush has had so far in this election cycle. Though this certainly does not mean that Florida is safe, it will still provide a certain "comfort level" to a lot of people. This margin is an improvement over the Rasmussen poll (9-12) margin of a single point up for Bush, reported yesterday. If nothing else, maybe this time around Florida will go Bush for a wide enough margin that it would be impossible for Kerry to try to scam his way into winning the state, the way Gore tried to in 2000.

New York - Now, I'm not making this up, but a Quinnipiac University poll (Sept. 15)has Kerry up now by only six, leading Bush by 47%-41%. This is a huge change, since Kerry up till now has been leading by 15-20 points in this very liberal state, e.g. the last Quinnipiac poll (8-13) which had Kerry up by 18%. I doubt that Bush will actually take the state (though the 31 EV would be nice), BUT making a strong showing in New York would pump up the popular vote totals, perhaps allaying more Democrat knackering if the election is as close as it was last time.

Wisconsin - Following up on the news from yesterday that Bush was up 52%-44% (Gallup, 9-12), a Strategic Vision poll of Sept. 13 released today has Bush beating out Kerry 49%-43%. Though not as good as the Gallup results, this is still a comfortable margin for Bush, especially in Wisconsin.

Virginia - Good news in this state, Bush seems to be maintaining and slightly widening his lead here. Rasmussen (9-13) reports that Bush holds a 50%-45% lead over Kerry here. Bush hasn't had this wide a lead in Virginia (13 EV) since the beginning of July, which is another sign that the South seems to be (re)solidifying for George W. Bush.

Nevada - The lead for Bush seems to be widening slightly here as well, with SurveyUSA reporting (Sept. 13) Bush ahead 51%-47%. Bush has led here in Nevada (5 EV) by 2-3% consistently since the beginning of August, though a SurveyUSA poll on July 25 actually had Kerry ahead 49%-45%. It is good to see Nevada staying and solidifying for the winning side here. If we can just get New Mexico to go Bush (which I'd give about a 50-50 chance), the whole mountain West would get be in Bush's column this year. Nevada is becominging increasing iffy itself due to the large number of Californian ex-patriots moving in, and obvious influence of vice industries in Las Vegas and Reno, which tend to exert an influence toward the Democrats. Perhaps there are enough economic conservatives and people concerned about the war on terrorists to keep Nevada in GOP column for one more election, though in the long term, I'm afraid the GOP will have to write off Nevada.

In the Senate polls, a little news to report. In South Carolina, liberal Democrat Inez Tenenbaum has been trailing Rep. Jim DeMint for the open seat being vacated by "Fritz" Holling. The latest polling by Global Strategy Group (Sept. 14) has DeMint ahead by only 3% (44%-41%) among likely voters, though the margin widens to 46%-40% for DeMint when only definite voters are considered. That margin has narrowed, unfortunately. DeMint had been leading Tenenbaum by double digits for nearly three months. Hopefully, Bush will have some long coattails in South Carolina and allow the GOP to take this seat.

This news follows on the heels of the news that Johnny

Isakson (R-GA) is leading his Democrat opponent Denise Majete, 46%-41%, in the race for the Senate seat Zell Miller is retiring from.

South Carolina and Georgia should be easy pickups for the Republicans. It bothers me a little bit to see these two races this close. North Carolina is looking touch-and-go, with Erskine Bowles consistently about 10% ahead of Richard Burr (though Burr's problem remains that he has low name recognition in the state). We ought to be able to hang onto Oklahoma and Alaska, but even these are looking somewhat iffy. I doubt the GOP will lose control of the Senate, but I'm not so sure that significant gains will be made. Most of the congressional gains we make will be in the House, especially as the redistrictings will be fully in effect.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.