[Coop]

Coop, he ain't gonna narrow the gap. It might change in one or two states, but Quinnipiac now has Bush down only six in NEW YORK, tied in MAINE. Kerry is sunk. The realistic question is, when does the DNC start to pull money for the senate campaigns that he might take down with him?

I know you're absolutely convinced Kerry's toast. I am not. Nor do I see any value in accepting that course as inevitable. What do we gain from it? Nothing, but plenty of heartache if Kerry does close the gap. If we approach it my way, then we hopefully contribute to either a close Bush win or a Bush landslide (which would probably result in an extra Senate seat or two).

I wish I had kept a log of how many times this year people on FR were convinced that Bush's approval ratings had hit bottom, only to see them go back down again. You have no more knowledge of the future than I do.

[LS]

No, I don't, but I' have predicted since last year that Bush would be in the 320 EV range, and, if all things hold steady right now, that's almost exactly where he would wind up.

Personally, I don't get down when Rasmussen's stupid poll went down, because I've always thought Ras was about 3-4 points low. Moreover, I DO know some things about internal OH strategy, and can tell you that it will get better for Bush, not worse.

Undue optimism is wrong. But undue pessimism sends resources in the wrong direction.