I wonder if terrorists in country might sieze upon the aftermath of the re-election of Bush. After the election, stage some attacks as such that they appear to be Anti-Bush supporters, sort of get the DU'ers riled up and get the ball moving. A classic destabilization campaign. You know start rioting in the big cities Chicago, LA, Detroit, etc. I bet potentially only takes a spark to get it going.
I teach in an inner city high school. Folks have no idea the depth of the anger and the simmering, lasting hatred that exists in the black community. It is literally held in check by the power of the Holy Spirit. Fortunately the Body of Christ is a powerful force in the lives of most adult black folks. Perhaps my perception is skewed by the fact that the school in which I teach is mostly Haitian and that group tends to be even more religious.
Returning to your point. I think you're spot on, for the scenario which you've posed. A few well placed agitators and the cooperation (unwitting) of a nervous police force....The only thing is that the agitators can not be Middle Eastern or islamic. That would be so obvious that it would fizzle.
OTOH, I also think that your scenario is too ummmmm sophisticated for the enemy we face. It's too tame given the profile of the terrorist as they have presented themselves. Their history (not just recent, but back to the Crusades) is straight up brutal violence. 911 was anything but subtle. It was not designed to be a long term event, either.
Even what is happening in Iraq, although it is a destabilizing effort, is not using the general populace for anything but shielding and maybe a cheering section. Those are still fighters waging an insurgents war. Fighters who came across the Iraq border it shares with other nations. Wait a second, JM? Might there be a parallel here?
Thousands of fighters burrowed into our countryside, concentrated in the desert southwest but conceivably waiting for another main force attack similar to 911? Then they start insurgent operations right here, thus linking into SCR1's scenario? Judicial meanz? What do you think?