"What worked in 1988 may not work in 2004"
I think this is exactly the point.
Because there are many swing voters who feel the way we do about the issue. I don't think this has any danger of swinging votes against Bush. The only ones who would be real offended were not at all likely to vote for Bush anyway.
The GOP were also scared of the swifty ads, but I KNEW they would hurt Kerry. You know the whole thing: People say they hate negative ads, but those ads (when grounded in truth) work.
Look, a black guy who tried to kill a cop is not going to get much sympathy (except from the lefties). And neither is Kerry if he's tied to the situation in a negative way.
If anything, I think it will bring up thoughts of Dukakis who is also from MA. I think This will have a subconscious morphing effect. Kerry/Dukakis, Kerry/Dukakis, Dukakis/loser, Dukakis/Kerry, Dukakis/Kerry/loser.
I think that, if this is true (big if), then it would work maybe even better than 1988. People are tired of this crap. The whole O.J. thing, etc., worked to get moany folks fed up with the judicial system letting off such obvious killers.
This would be just one more BIG NEGATIVE on top of so many others. That would chip away at Kerry's "favorability".
Again, it would have to be done right. But we don;t even know anything about the reliablility. This may all be mute.
COme to think of it, we need some ads which morph Kerry into Dukakis, and relate their history together. That's one thing that SHOULD be done, which has not been done so far--remind people of Dukakis/MASS/Kerry/lefty connection.