Posted on 08/24/2004 12:53:25 AM PDT by Entrepreneur
It’s Hard Not To Be Overconfident
By Entrepreneur
I’m finding it hard not to be overconfident about the election. You see, I believe the country began a shift to the right that has continued unabated since the Carter years. The seeds of the Republican majority were planted during the height of post WWII Democrat hegemony. Under Carter, the Democrats held the executive branch, both houses of the legislative branch, plus they contaminated the judiciary for a generation.
When the nation witness the results of the most inept president of the 20th century combined with the infantile, spoiled, socialistic agenda of 1960’s radicals in Congress and an out of control activist judiciary, the country recoiled in horror. The Republicans could have denied Carter his second term by running a mannequin. Instead, the electorate was blessed with Ronald Reagan, one of the two or three greatest and most inspirational leaders in the nation’s history.
Explaining The Clinton Years
The shift to the right continued under Clinton. Yes, Clinton defeated a sitting president and won a second term. Superficially, he seemed a force of nature leading a shift back to the Democrats. Hardly. Clinton would not have won either term without the good fortune of Ross Perot’s megalomania and enmity toward the Republican establishment. Remember, Perot represented a serious challenge for the Oval Office as an independent during his first run, foiled only when he succumbed to whatever personal demons fed his inner delusions. Still, he commanded enough support to play the role of spoiler, which may have been his sole objective, aka George Soros.
Clinton was unable to win a majority despite running against two of the most inept candidates the GOP managed to front since, well, Ford. Unfortunately, the GOP primary system seems to skew towards middle-of-the-roaders, rather than true conservatives. Perhaps this is because most true conservatives would have to be out of their minds to want to make a run for the Oval Office (or to even enter politics in the first place). Unfortunately, conservatives tend to come across a little bit loony when conducting a national campaign. Of course, the Democrat primary system skews toward leftist fruitcakes, who then run in disguise.
Separate the modern myth from the reality about Clinton. He was an insignificant individual whose rise resulted from fortunate circumstance more than his storied brilliance as a campaigner.
Even during the Clinton years, the shift to the right was pronounced. Newt Gingrich’s brilliant Contract With America took advantage of practical American skepticism about Hillary’s attempt to socialize one seventh of the U.S. economy, allowing Republicans to sweep into control of the House of Representatives.
Taking the House was an amazing feat. One of the most secure cornerstones of the domestic polity was the Democrat control of the House of Representatives. The only relic more solidly entrenched was the Iron Curtain. Yet, even as the Berlin Wall fell during GHW Bush’s term, the Democrat’s control of the lower house came to an end during Clinton’s Camelot era.
GW Bush’s Rise Some pundits claimed that GHW Bush’s term was actually Reagan’s third. As Veep, he was running as Reagan’s heir. Of course, he was also running against the latest run-of-the-mill, out of touch, leftist (i.e., Humphrey, McGovern, Carter, Dukakis). The fact that Clinton’s heir, for all of Clinton’s so-called popularity did not win a similar third term is not only a credit to Gore’s unattractiveness and wacky views, but to the nation’s rightward shift.
GW Bush won his first term as the Texas governorship primarily because he wasn’t Ann Richards. Richards had won only because she was running against Clayton William. Like Perot, Williams is a dynamic, charismatic, and accomplished major league entrepreneur who didn’t know when to keep his mouth shut. During the campaign, Williams joked in the presence of reporters that if a woman was being raped, she might as well lie back and enjoy it. Even for the Lone Star State this was a little too far.
W won his second term because he governed effectively. He got some substantive things done, such as tort reform, popular everywhere except Democrat fund raising circles. More importantly, he didn’t get too much done. Texans prefer inactive to active governors.
Bush won the Republican nomination because he wasn’t as unpredictable as the independent McCain. Everyone likes McCain and respects his personal story, but conservatives - especially conservative - are unsure which party holds more allegiance for McCain. The fact that Kerry actually thought he might be able to persuade McCain to run as the Democrat Veep is testament that it’s not merely conservatives who are unsure. Fortunately, loyalty is one of McCain’s core values, so he stayed in the Republican camp (for this week anyway).
Bush is not the most effective campaigner the GOP’s offered, but he is adequate. Certainly he’s the most effective campaigner the GOP’s seen since Reagan. He’s also been blessed by the Democrats return to the long line of run-of-the-mill, out of touch leftists with Gore and Kerry. In campaign mode Bush is a lot like the underestimated quarterback who leads the team to the championship. He makes plays when he has to and doesn’t lose the game. In short, Bush makes very few mistakes as a campaigner.
Like his first term as governor, Bush has also shown himself to be an effective chief executive. Give him credit for getting tax cuts passed despite a fractious congress. He’s shown more of a conservative core than his father, though it’s not so conservative that he’s managed to find a single spending bill worthy of a veto. Most of all, give Bush credit for his response to the 9/11 attacks and the War on Terror. Through his leadership during a tenuous time for our nation and his actions since, he’s shown himself to be a man of substance. He’s not the great communicator, but he is a quietly effective leader with a vision.
The Pitiable Kerry
As the Democrats entered primary season, Howard Dean seemed a dream come true for the Republicans. If only Dean could have waited to melt down until after the convention, we might have seen a Nixon vs. McGovern redux. Yet, as Kerry continues to stumble over the Swift Boat Vets, making tactical mistake after tactical mistake, it becomes hard to refrain from overconfidence.
Kerry is pitiable. The man truly does appear to be an empty suit, a caricature of a public servant. It’s as though one of the empty-headed Hollywood leftists won the Democrat nomination. Read the lines. Look the part. Flash those whitened teeth. Get a $300 trim and coiffure. He’s the Oakland candidate with no there, there.
His resume is so lacking that he’s only rumored to be a senator. His stature derives from his days as a war hero protesting the war and the Swift Boat Vets are even calling his status as a war hero into question.
The country still doesn’t know much about Kerry, which has worked to his favor. What’s he going to run on, the most liberal voting record in the Senate (at least when he bothers to cast votes)? Oh, wait; he was Dukakis’ second in command. Oops, better bury that one.
Kerry’s great hope was to avoid making a mistake and let the media and George Soros’ fortune pummel Bush, shaking the foundation of the generally positive impression of Bush that most Americans hold. Kerry, who is skilled as a slippery debater, would then trap Bush into the memorable sound bite mistake during the debates that the media would repeat more than the Abu Ghraib pictures. Don’t underestimate the potential. His debate with William Weld would make Clinton envious.
Kerry’s Screw Up
However, Kerry screwed up. Instead of ignoring or brushing off the Swift Boat Vets like he dodged the image capturing himself with fellow anti-war comrade Jane Fonda, he’s focused the country’s attention on the Swift Boat Vets. He’s given a credible group more notoriety with the general electorate than they could possibly have managed solely through talk radio, the Internet, and Fox. Then, just as Kerry turned the country’s attention to the Swift Boat Vets’ claims, the Swift Boat Vets roll out an even more damning spot with Kerry’s own scurrilous and libelous condemnation of America’s sons in arms interposed with a POW’s account of how the VC used Kerry’s congressional testimony to demoralize prisoners. It’s going to be hard for Kerry to escape the growing impression that he gave aid and comfort to the enemy in a time of war.
Kerry’s anti-war stance was very calculated. It was the early positioning for a run at Congress in the most liberal state in the country. What’s acceptable for the voters of Massachusetts in a congressman, lieutenant governor, or senator is not acceptable to the majority of Americans for a wartime president.
Something that’s never happened to John Kerry is occurring. He’s getting pinned down.
The Swift Boat Vets are making the Bushies task easier. Give the Bush campaign credit. They are playing it smart by laying low even as they mobilize to highlight Kerry’s tax and spend voting record, opportunistic flip flops, and out of mainstream views. Kerry passed up the chance to talk about his record, to position himself, and to form a substantive impression during the Democrat Convention. Instead, the public’s perception of Kerry remains a little like Kerry’s positions on any given issue; rather vague and formless. The Republicans have an opportunity to press an accurate shape onto John Kerry. In a country continuing to drift to the right this would be devastating.
Kerry’s Challenge Kerry has to overcome the images of a long-haired radical, making odious statements about America’s sons in arms before Congress. The Botox candidate has got to overcome a native aloofness that doesn’t connect with the average American when his opponent radiates a cheerful, down home, competent likeability. Kerry’s facing an economy that continues to accelerate and a war that continues to improve. And, as the mid-term elections showed, he’s facing an electorate that’s continuing to move to the right.
The media pundits, who only know people who think as they think, are missing the nation’s rightward shift. Popular culture supports their view that the country is moving in their direction and Bush is done. They cannot fathom the possibility that Mel Gibson is more in tune with the desires of real Americans than Michael Moore. They know it’s going to break their way. Cognitive dissonance compels them to conclude that the signs, which are present for all to see, are aberrations or the result of voter fraud or some other excuse.
The polls show the country split into rock solid and evenly divided camps. Yet, it’s still too early for the polls on Kerry to matter much. The public still has not formed an impression of Kerry. About all most people know is Kerry served in Vietnam and has expensive hair. Kerry’s negatives are starting to stack.
In the most stage managed election in history, the last great hope for Kerry is the debates. The debates give Kerry a chance. Fortunately, his opponent makes the plays he has to and doesn’t make the big mistakes that will cost the game.
It’s hard not to be overconfident.
Entrepreneur
BTW, this was my first post to the Free Republic. Let me know what you think and feel free to pass it along if you like it.
LOL! Take off your rose colored glasses.
You see, I believe the country began a shift to the right that has continued unabated since the Carter years. The seeds of the Republican majority were planted during the height of post WWII Democrat hegemony. Under Carter, the Democrats held the executive branch, both houses of the legislative branch, plus they contaminated the judiciary for a generation.
You are dead wrong. This nation is a lot more socialistic than 20 years ago and John Kerry has an excellent chance of becoming president. The press is in the pocket of the DNC.
Welcome to FR. I wish I had your confidence in the American electorate. We shall see....
im afraid dennisw is correct. The bias introduced by allowing government "workers" to vote is too much. The mood among these internal enemies is overwhelmingly anti-Bush. politicians buy their votes with promises that will be paid by future generations. Democrats increase governnment, thus increase their pool of voters. GOvernment workers should not be allowed to vote if we want to avoid a communist government.
GOvernment workers should not be allowed to vote if we want to avoid a communist government.
What the hell are you trying to say here?
Yeah, but I don't think anyone believed him. Of course, it's come out from the Swift Boat Vets that he did torch a village for kicks and they did say that he had a shoot first mentality.
I liked it. Mel Gibson's film is coming out on DVD today and it'll be a runaway hit on the sales charts. The libs in the cultural and academic elites don't know the true mood of the country. The polls largely show a mirage. I'm confident that in a week's time President Bush will put the joker John F*ckin' away for good. All the rest's gravy.
Excellent post and for my Grand Children's sake I pray that you are correct and I believe there is evidence that you are. The great masses of unwashed in the middle of the country are decidely different from the folks in the NE and the left coast. To me there are indications that in the next century the United States may not end up with the same alignment of states that it started the century with if the idealogical divide continues...
Good post, you make a good case for GWB's re-election, I am confident but try not to be overconfident. I am also incredulous that JfK appears to be close, too close, I hope it is a mirage sustained by the extreme bias of the hardcore MSM and their reliance on the Feelings of the Pop Culture mentality. When it comes to pulling the lever on 11/2, a lot of voters will know that in times of war character does count, and it counts in the times between wars also, JfK just like Clinton was not effective in protecting Americans, proof=September 11, 2001.
I agree with you.
I agree with you also.
However, I do have a question. What is this supposed to mean?
***Texans prefer inactive to active governors.****
Are you a Texan? I am and that statement doesn't fit me or anyone I know.
What did you mean?
BTTT
Remember, Dukakis was something like 15 points ahead at this stage of the election cycle. At one point in my life I worked in the marketing research industry so I learned a thing or two about surveying and polling. Unless someone is very careful in the research design, he or she might measure preference that's superficial and not deeply held.
I think polling is also skewed against Republican voters in the first place, due to sampling errors based on the following assumptions...
1. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to work in industry and thus, more likely to travel. When you're gone, you can't answer the phones.
2. Republicans have higher average incomes than Democrats (excepting the trial lawyers, empty headed entertainers, and guilty uber-rich and trust fund babies). Thus, they are more likely than Democrats to utilize Caller ID and answering machines to screen calls. When you screen calls, you do not answer the phones.
This can easily be corrected with weighting based on voting patterns from the last election, but to my knowledge none of the political polling companies weight.
Given this, polling is mostly interesting in terms of trending. If the same polling company uses the same methods, then this week's poll is comparible to last week's within the confines of standard error. Given the ever changing role of technology in our society, I'm not sure you would be safe comparing one year to the next sans weighting as a check.
How are the polls trending? If anything, they've been remarkably stable and are starting to trend Bush's way.
Anyway, that's my two cents. I never did political polling so I may be way off.
Entrepreneur
I'm a Texan. I always feel better when the legislature is not in sesson (ditto for Congress, though they've got these huge staffs than meddle 24/7/365).
In my mind, the government that governs best, governs least.
The problem with legislators and lawmakers is that they determine their value based on the amount of legislation and laws they pass.
Is it possible that we've got *enough* laws?
Entreprenuer
I, like many of the other posters here, hope you are correct, and we get to appoint three Supreme Court justices in the next presidential term.
What concerns me, is the fact that the school system for the past thirty years or so, has been churning out folks who don't know history, or at least an accurate picture of it, who mistakenly venerate celebrities (thespians used to be on the bottom of the food chain), and who think that reading Time magazine is getting below the surface of the news - digging deeper, being a responsible citizen. Such folks may get taken in by the Kerry methodology (relying on cognitive dissonance, lies, image).
Also, voter fraud concerns me, too, as I wonder how many elections have been stolen (by Dems, not Repubs -- the Dems are upset about Florida because THEIR theft got derailed, that's all). Notice how quiet that guy from South Dakota has been, er, what's his name, now that he's gotta pretend to be a populist candidate?
There are demographic studies showing that the current generation (the Millenials) are more conservative than their divorced, baby-boomer parents. Also, a large contingent of people having kids nowadays WANT to have kids (shucks, with all the birth control and abortion one could want, you can get rid of any unintended consequences; sad note: finally the abortion genocide of African-Americans is getting some attention -- I hope that bothers someone), and are serious about raising them (e.g., substantial homeschooling movement). My hope is that the voters of this coming election make a decision that will allow the nexts sober generation (who are younger than 10 right now) to take its place in leadership.
Actually, the DNC is the pocket of the press.
I live in Houston. Everywhere I go I see Kerry bumper stickers and NO Bush stickers. Overconfident Republicans can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. How many are volunteering? Who is scanning the voter rolls for fraudulent phantom voters and dead people? A Democratic willing to commit enough felonies can still win.
You said...
I, like many of the other posters here, hope you are correct, and we get to appoint three Supreme Court justices in the next presidential term.
Ah, here my confidence wanes. Republicans presidents have not shown any particular skill in selecting jurists who follow the rule of law. Haven't Republicans selected something like seven of the current nine?
You said...
the school system for the past thirty years or so, has been churning out folks who don't know history, or at least an accurate picture of it
Too true. However, there are more outlets today to learn about other views than in the past. I didn't have an Internet when I was a kid. There wasn't a Fox News Channel. There was no Limbaugh. Frankly, about the only conservative publications I can remember reading in my 20s were the Wall Street Journal and the National Review. I slept through much of my college education and was taught by appropriately liberal teachers in high school and college. In fact, my father was a liberal arts college professor who supported McGovern. Yet, the quest for truth eventually awoke and I began seeking answers and learning. Today, it's far easier to learn.
You said...
thespians used to be on the bottom of the food chain
They're not? I think we need to give more of the Hollywood intellectuals a microphone. Everytime they open their mouths, they convict themselves of ignorance.
You said...
reading Time magazine is getting below the surface of the news - digging deeper, being a responsible citizen
Do the gullable even read? I mean, other than their lottery tickets?
You said...
Such folks may get taken in by the Kerry methodology (relying on cognitive dissonance, lies, image).
At least 45% of the electorate will be taken in, unless they take a personal dislike to him. Every time I hear his him speak, I'm more turned off. He sounds like Thurston Howell III.
You said...
Also, voter fraud concerns me, too, as I wonder how many elections have been stolen (by Dems, not Repubs
I'm concerned too. I suspect it will happen in SD, PA, and LA at the very least. This is one of the areas where the GOP needs to play hardball. Unfortunately, the Country Club set of the GOP acts like it's just so crass and beneath them.
Funny, but the Republicans are Hawkish about protection our national interests (usually), but total Doves when it comes to protecting the party's interests. The reverse is true for the opposition. This is one of the reasons I miss guys like Newt and Armey in positions of power.
You said...
There are demographic studies showing that the current generation (the Millenials) are more conservative than their divorced, baby-boomer parents. Also, a large contingent of people having kids nowadays WANT to have kids
See, there's cause for hope!
You said...
sad note: finally the abortion genocide of African-Americans is getting some attention -- I hope that bothers someone
Abortion of any sort bothers me, but then I wouldn't have been born today. I was the result of an unplanned pregnancy and adopted. And don't throw that line about African American babies not being wanted. My goddaughter is mixed race, adopted by a couple who could not have children. Even better, in everyday stuff, racism has vanished. My kids are great friends with kids of different races and think nothing of it. No one does. If guys like Al Sharpton and Jessie Jackson didn't remind me so regularly that racism is alive and well, I might even forget about the term. Heck, I've even learned to say St Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals, though fortunately I never did manage to say Los Angles Raiders.
You said...
My hope is that the voters of this coming election make a decision that will allow the nexts sober generation (who are younger than 10 right now) to take its place in leadership.
There are good people and leaders in every generation. As conservatives, we tend to get depressed because we compare everyone to Reagan and everyone falls short. We may never see another Reagan, but somewhere there's a conservative who will come close.
Conservatives are supposed to be optimistic. We have faith in the individual and in America. It's the lefties who are obsessed with bad news, with victims, with tragedy, which they must fix, of course, because they're so much smarter than you and me.
Entrepreneur
Are you saying that you think Kerry could carry Houston? Or Texas? Such pessimism.
BTW, If you think I'm sticking a W bumper sticker on the back of my BMW you're crazy.
Entrepreneur
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