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http://www.mensnewsdaily.com/archive/m-n/marzullo/2004/marzullo080604.htm

War Gaming Terrorism, Part 6
August 6, 2004
by Tom Marzullo

This is the sixth (tactical) part of a series of analyses that seeks to partially game out potential terrorist attacks from the terrorist’s point of view, using some of the realistic measures that we know or suspect are available to them.

After the basic discussions have been published, the summary for this series will then look at the potential deployment of these actions against us. By understanding how such attacks are likely to be used, it is expected that our communities will be better prepared to go to where they are needed. This is, after all, the very solid basis for how our founders envisioned citizen participation in conflicts.

This series is an opportunity for every citizen, without a military background in guerrilla warfare, to learn of how our sworn enemies will work in order that we may be better unified to do something useful about them. Forewarned is forearmed.

WMDs – Toxins and Biological weapons

Toxin use by the Islamists is something that has already been in the news for years. Potent toxins are lightweight, virtually undetectable until deployed and not very difficult to produce or ship. We also know from confirmed reports that they have already been found stored by Islamists in the UK.

The world of the terrorist being the Darwinian situation that it is, the Islamists have learned how to better transport and store these toxins from that incident in London two years back. Terrorism is a purely pass-fail environment and nobody gets the benefit of the use of curve or the norming of grades much to discomfort of the NEA… This is the real world after all. The stupid and careless die and the smarter come forward. Deal with it.

Ricin is my toxin-du-jour… a derivative of the hulls of the castor bean; it has no known anti-toxin although extreme supportive care can keep a person affected by it alive to recover. But just how many ICU beds do you think any major city will have? Those available within a 500-mile region are probably equal to the number of survivors of a lethal dose. Ricin powder (the usual form) is most toxic by the inhalation route, while ingestion requires ten times the amount to produce the same level of effect.

Since it is a powder, it is but a simple measure to place a bag (with a small explosive charge to turn it into an aerosol - think of that cell phone detonator technology the Islamists favor) into the air conditioning system of any major building. Just how secure are your company’s mechanical spaces, hmmmm?

Just for the pure hell of it, let’s look at another little poisonous wonder… Botulinum toxin. I will assume that you have heard of Botulism before. This is the toxic byproduct of the Clostridium botulinum organism and is among the substances most toxic to humans (and animals). The bacteria is easy to grow with some minimal lab skills and fairly easy to mimic equipment (oxygen content, temperature and humidity are the key things to control well). Duplicate the dispersal tactic cited above to get your brain in gear… only in this case lets limit the time to initiate effective treatment to hours, not days as with Ricin.

There are others out there as well… For instance, Osmium has hit the news of late and any reasonably competent Toxicologist or Industrial Hygienist could supply you with a rather lengthy list in virtually no time at all. Toxins-R-Us.

Suffice it to say that toxins are clearly a viable terrorist weapon because of their ease of production, use and the fact that they will only affect a limited area… none of those nasty epidemics to worry about.

Biological agents are a whole ‘nother ball of wax. If they are at all really effective Bio-agents, they can get away from the intended area in no time at all and so are dicey propositions.

The key is to pick an agent with high infectivity, a longer sub-clinical period of infection and higher lethality. Ebola virus for instance is a poor choice as people die soon after contracting it… therefore no real chance to spread. The Small Pox virus works pretty well as we Americans showed during the Indian wars of the 19th century, those free (infected) blankets worked like a charm. Anthrax is pretty good on most counts though we now have antibiotics that work well… something that is definitively not true when it comes to viral diseases. Those we can immunize against, but once you have it – supportive care is all that there is. People can survive cholera, if they don’t die from dehydration or electrolyte imbalance caused by the intractable diarrhea in the interim.

But biological agents aren’t that hard to produce if you have a sample of the strain you favor. It was not until around 9-11 that the World Health Organization put the clamps on the distribution of disease-causing organisms virtually at will. Open a lab, hang out a shingle and get all the bugs you want used to be the rule. But remember, the Islamists have been at war with us for going on 20 years now, whether we actually paid attention is a moot point.

The Soviets had a huge bio-weapons program in the 1970-80s that went to pot virtually overnight… now, where did all those technicians and bacterial/viral stocks go to? A damn good set of questions to which there are no dependable answers.

The bottom line here is that the truly effective biological weapons are likely in reserve as a doomsday device for the Islamists. But toxins are right there, available for instant use.

Stand by… there is more yet to come.

Tom Marzullo

Reference:

See Part 1

See Part 2

See Part 3

See Part 4

See Part 5
Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, 'Tailwind' and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado.