Summary 7/30/04 - Current Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
1.Attack threat windows - Many dates have been put forth here on TM based upon Islamic / Jihadist ‘special days’, numerology and rumor. Fortunately these dates have proven to be false (although some evaluation of the relation of 911 to 311 is useful). Therefore we may need to review and look for other indicators of impending attack such as changes in communications / chatter levels, etc.
Another rumored indicator is/are the number of threats and amount of time since a threat was issued. Evaluations by TM participants suggest that there is no set pattern and that the attack of 911 indicates that they will strike when all is in place and ready.
The best understanding I have is that the next round of attacks will be sequential with a precursor attack in Italy first, then England and the US.
International
Italy. - (7/30/04) DUBAI (Reuters) - Yet another threat Friday against European countries by the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades. The authenticity of the statement could not be immediately verified. The message said other statements had been falsely attributed to the Abu Hafs al-Masri group in the past two days. Previous claims of responsibility by the group for attacks in Turkey and Iraq have been greeted with skepticism. Some U.S. officials have said its links with al Qaeda are unclear. This is the fourth threat since the end of the so-called ‘truce’. Rome has been specifically mentioned in other threats. Previous threats issued July 2, 16, 26 & 28. Additional threat from Tawhid on July 25th threatens Australia and reiterates al Masri threat to Italy. In the face of these numerous threats, if something doesn’t happen soon, then al-Masri and AQ risks losing face.
Uzbekistan (7/30/04) (Fox) TASHKENT, — At least two Uzbeks were killed in blasts at the U.S. and Israeli embassies on Friday. The Interfax news agency said a man with an explosive belt on his waist detonated bomb outside the American Embassy and the attack on the Israeli Embassy also was a suicide assault.
England - nothing new to report
Japan – nothing new to report
Australia – No new threats issued today.
Turkey – On 28 July 2004, news services reported that airport security went to level ‘yellow’ second highest based upon threat that AQ would launch a 911 style attack or blow-up an airliner.
Iran – (7/30/04) Iran continues to disregard the UN and EU regarding its nuclear program. Iran is threatening total destruction of Israel if they attack. Iran is also alleged to be developing a stealth cruise missile.
What is unknown is what degree of cooperation the US will provide to Israel if they preemptively strike. Key indicator to watch are deployments of additional carriers to the ME region to back up US forces quickly if Israel strikes independently. US ground forces are insufficient to maintain Iraq security and attack into Iran. Any US strike into Iran likely to be via aircraft, special ops and cruise missiles.
Syria – Information suggests that they are supplying terrorists with rocket components to attack Israeli targets from S. Lebanon.
Israel - (7/30/04) Jewish extremists are threatening to cleanse the temple mount of the Dome of the Rock or the Al-Aksa Mosque. Moslems warn all out war if they are damaged or destroyed.
North America
United States
(7/30/04) Jihadist ‘chatter’ has been on-going for many months about the impending death strike to America. The DNC is finished in Boston, the next potential HVT target will be the RNC in NYC in 5 weeks.
AQ has shown savvy towards timing an attack to influence the electorate as shown in the Madrid bombings. However I think they misjudged American response to 911 and are leery to strike at a sympathetic party. Homeland security seems to think it will be ‘soon’, some ‘unnamed’ sources to the media expect an attempt prior to the national elections in November.
2. Attack method.
A. Jihadist chatter suggests something big and devastating to hit US. This has been a common theme. There has been significant discourse on whether AQ has small nukes or the capability to deploy them. No significant proof has been provided to prove they possess them.
B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. Another aspect is having more terrorists on the plane to help keep the passengers subdued if they can take over the craft. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit.
C. Personnel
- (7/30/04) DHS is more concerned about terrorists infiltrating into the US from Mexico. This could be why the US Border Patrol is increasing its attention to the southern border. Southern Arizona has been considered by some to be a terrorist haven area.
One purpose of the infiltration of ME men in to the US would be to supply more people to reinforce those potentially martyred in an upcoming attack(s). More people would also permit more initial and follow-on car/truck suicide bomb attacks. The effect of dozens of simultaneous car-bomb attacks at soft targets (malls, amusement parks, sporting events, etc) would be close to that of a nuke strike as this would reveal to the American people that we are far more vulnerable than the general person on the street thinks we are.
A second reason is that the US Moslem community is absent martyr complex and substantial cultural ‘brain washing’ prevalent with the Middle East jihadists, thus the bulk of people needed to commit suicide bombings are having to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the suicide car bomb has been the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).
(7/30/04) (Reuters) - A top al Qaeda operative, Khalfan Ghailani Ahmed, is in custody of Pakistani interrogators.
(7/30/04) Reports in Kuwait on Friday said a man assumed to be Al Qaeda leader in Iraq, Abu Musab Zarqawi has been captured near the Syrian border. The US and Iraqi investigators are trying to identify the captive and has sent his DNA sample for testing, the unconfirmed report indicated.
(7/28/04) A South African woman, Farida Goolam Mohamed Ahmed, was picked up in Texas at McAllen Miller International Airport on July 19. She had illegally entered the US via Mexico and is suspected of being associated with Al-Qada.
(7/28/04) The American Muslim Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development charity and seven of its officers were charged Tuesday with providing millions of dollars in support to Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization blamed for dozens of suicide bomber attacks in Israel.
(7/29/04) The FBI and Orlando Police have confirmed 3 Middle Eastern men were detained last week trying to board a flight at Orlando International Airport. As they were checking in for a flight to Oman at the ticket counter the name of one of the men appeared on a computerized "do-not-fly" list compiled by the Transportation Security Administration. All 3 men were placed into the custody of a federal agent.
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. (7/30/04) None reported
Heightened Security
- Boston, NYC, Philly, Seattle, LA, DC. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Additional security being reported for some sensitive sites in New Mexico due to recent FBI terror warning (see below).
Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations.
The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises.
The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
The first national ABM missiles are being installed in Alaska.
(7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled.
(7/29/04) The first successful test of the Israeli Arrow anti-missile system was successfully conducted over the Pacific Ocean from Vandenberg AFB.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty.
(7/30/04) The FBI says they received intelligence late last week that al-Qaida may have had an attack planned on New Mexico in May, but scrubbed it because of heightened security...
(7/29/04) The FBI warned police in California and New Mexico that it received information about possible terrorist activity in their states. However, the warning wasn't specific about particular targets or a method of attack, a federal law enforcement official said Thursday. The FBI decided to pass along the threat information but warned that it was considered unsubstantiated and uncorroborated, said the official, who spoke only on condition of anonymity.
8. Potential Domestic Terrorist Incidents
a. (7/30/04) Babies that may have eaten some of the potentially ricin tainted baby food appear to have suffered no ill effects. A suspect is being questioned and currently does not appear to be terrorist related.
Thank you for your hard work keeping us posted everyday.
I am going out of town on vacation, so I will check in
when I can.
Thanks for the update, Godzilla. Maybe I should add a mailing list for you to zap that out to a few hundred thousand people.
Thank-you.
ALL : Tomorrow I will be posting a compiled grouping of Godzilla's summaries from July. Please let me know if you would like a ping to this list
zilla, exalent as always! Please keep/put me on your ping list. Thanks.
Please add me to your Ping list. I'll bet they'll have a lot to tell of that trip. You'll be doing them a big favor and I'd love to hear what they have to say about their experiences in Romania.