At a small dinner party last month, the hostess asked who was going to win the election. The guests -- a leading member of the business community, a high-profile member of the legal profession and a prominent member of the entertainment industry -- were unanimous. Canada was going to have a Liberal majority government.
My own opinion was the same, with only one difference. Unlike the others, I prefaced my prediction with the word "alas."
That dinner party in Toronto took place only seven weeks ago, but it might as well have happened in another age. Whatever prediction the same savvy, well-connected guests would offer today, it obviously wouldn't be a Liberal majority.
Canada is closer to having a centre-right government than it has been in 40 years. It's much closer than in previous elections, not only because the expected Liberal walkover has turned into a snappish dog race, but because the trailing dog of Stephen Harper's Conservative party isn't wagged by its Red Tory tail as it used to be in Kim Campbell's, Brian Mulroney's, Joe Clark's, Robert Stanfield's or John Diefenbaker's days. The core of today's Conservatives, the potential Cabinet -- though far from being the antediluvian cavemen depicted by Paul Martin's desperate Liberals -- are true-blue conservatives, perhaps with a sprinkling of classical liberals.
At the same time, Canada is closer to having a seriously left-wing government than it has been in a generation. Ironically, the same electoral trends that have in the last seven weeks made a Conservative minority a distinct possibility, and even a Conservative majority at least a distant one, are also making a Liberal minority, with the NDP's socialists holding the balance of power, an acute probability.
Such a Liberal-NDP coalition government wouldn't just be left of a Liberal majority government under Paul Martin. Paradoxically, it would be left of even an NDP majority government. Whatever restraint NDP-leader Jack Layton and his comrades would have to exercise if they had the responsibility of power, no such restraint would operate on them as back-seat drivers. They'd gleefully try to steer Mr. Martin's disheartened and emasculated left-of-centre Liberals into the left-side ditch -- and probably succeed.
In short, chances are that within a week, Canada will have either the most left-wing or the most right-wing government it has had in living memory. This also means that Canada may have its best or its most disastrous government after June 28.
The best is unfortunately only a distant possibility, while the disastrous is quite likely. There's little doubt that the scandal-ridden Liberals will be humiliated, but the country may derive no benefit from it. Current numbers suggest Canadians may prefer a coalition of sagging Liberals and demagogic socialists -- an Axis of the Feeble -- to a government of moderate Conservatives under a young, intelligent leader of political skill and probity.
If so, it will be a pity, because a potentially decent government is within Canada's grasp for the first time in decades. Mr. Harper's Conservatives have made a new start. They seem to have retained most of the virtues of their Tory tribe, while managing to leave its vices behind. In contrast, Mr. Martin's Liberals haven't saved many of their Grit tribe's assets but drag with them the bulk of its burdens. They come across as street bullies, desperate and running scared.
Campaign ads that blithely equate current Liberal policies with core Canadian values illustrate the point. It may be quite "Canadian" to favour state-monopoly medicine, gay marriage or abortion, but it's hardly un-Canadian to oppose them. If it were, about half of Canada would be un-Canadian. No wonder Mr. Martin's attack ads on Mr. Harper had a mixed reception. Talk about arrogance. Adding Pierre Trudeau's modesty to Mr. Martin's charisma isn't exactly a winning combination, even when flavoured with a dash of Jean Chretien's ethics.
But while the Liberals have cause to worry, the country has little cause to cheer yet. Unless present projections change in the next seven days, the rise in the electoral fortunes of Canada's centre-right will benefit (at least for one more term) mainly Canada's centre-to-far-left. June 28th's most likely outcome will be, in descending order of probability: 1. A Liberal minority, leading to a coalition government with the NDP; 2. A Conservative minority, leading to a possible Tory government in coalition with the Bloc Quebecois, though more likely a caretaker coalition government and a new election; 3. A Tory majority, a new deal for the country, but a long shot; and finally 4. A Liberal majority, as forecast by the politically astute seven weeks ago.
That's Canada's current hand. Reason enough for every voter to go out and play it.
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National Post? Nope, not on the list either....good catch of this article....very to-the-point....I have noticed that this morning's polls here in Canada show the Conservatives falling a bit behind the LIEberals, but that is more than likely due to the INTENSE negative ads the LIBS are running here in Toronto and elsewhere in Ontario (see the ads every evening on the local news)....
There you go again....
Jim Robinson's Master List Of Articles To Be Excerpted:
Updated FR Excerpt and Link Only or Deny Posting List due to Copyright Complaints
"Did I forget to post the full article again? D'OH!!"
FReegards,
ConservativeStLouisGuy