The LIVE California Primary Thread for March 2, 2004

[ArmstedFragg]

Orange is starting to come in

Yeah, and it's not encouraging.... or it IS encouraging based on your point of view. At 27 percent, no was ahead of yes by almost 32 thousand votes. If that trend had continued, the move to 54 percent would add an additional 32 thousand offset on the "no" side. Instead, it added only about 10 thousand. So it could be just a precinct selection fluke, or a trend.

What's interesting to me is that in the last election the east bay votes were held up until everything else was in, almost as if waiting to determine how many were needed. Those of us who watched the vote count in South Dakota last year noticed a similar phenomenon. Looks like we're seeing it again.

[CityOnAHill]

Straight from the Contra Costa county elections results WEB site which is a little more up to date than the state:

55-Kindergarten-Univ Public Ed Bond Act

Completed Precincts: 726 of 787

Vote Count Percentage

Yes 115,296 56.7%

No 87,914 43.3%

[Drago]

I have live AP election wire here at work right now...only drawback is I cannot see votes by county (it is in "Newspaper" formatting, and I have TV station software running).

[Drago]

Bubba wins again!!!!!!!!!!

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FRESNO MAYOR
Total
Number of Precincts 220
Precincts Reporting 220 100.0 %
Vote For 1
Times Counted 61080/179945 33.9 %
Total Votes 58496
Times Blank Voted 2496
Times Over Voted 88
Number Of Under Votes 0

---

ALAN AUTRY 42571 72.78%
SUE SAIGAL 12120 20.72%
JOHNNY W. NELUM, SR 1966 3.36%
BENJERMAN JUNIOR RA 962 1.64%
TONY FARMER 697 1.19%
Write-in Votes 180

[ArmstedFragg]

"Contra Costa county elections results WEB site"

Very useful. That's precisely the offset anticipated for them based on their figures at the sixty percent point.

[Positive]

Actually it shows that the NO's have it by 58,000 in OC now. Thats an increase of 26,000 from you recollection of the diffential at the 27% count.

[Drago]

Rats! Gotta go back to work entering data!
Data I enter is here:
http://www.ksee24.com/election/Default-election2004.asp#State%20Propositions

[CounterCounterCulture]

Tidbit: Senate candidate Kaloogian bests Marin in all greater Bay Area counties except Solano. Of course Jones won all counties, but it was good to see the influence of KSFO in the Bay Area. Still don't get the strong Stoen showing, making him as competitive as the top tier candidate Casey.

[ArmstedFragg]

Thats an increase of 26,000 from you recollection of the diffential at the 27% count.

Right. That's somewhere up around 75 percent. So, the intial figure was too optimistic, the second count was too pessimistic, and it looks like Orange County is going to add about 20K on the "no" side between here and the end. San Diego's numbers are also running on the "no" side, but by a smaller percentage than the SOS has them.

So, I'm guessing the final margin pre-San Berdoo will be somewhere around 40K on the "yes" side... (It's dropped the last two updates) Then we'll just wait until they figure out that whole "boot-up" routine.

[CounterCounterCulture]

SANTA CLARA COUNTY NOTABLES *

REP - PRES PREF - REP - CAPS 
1029/1029 100.00% 
  Vote Count Percent 
GEORGE W. BUSH 65,786 93.22% 
Write-In 4,785 6.78% 
Total 70,571 100.00% 

REP - U.S. SENATOR 2004 
1029/1029 100.00% 
  Vote Count Percent 
BILL JONES 27,630 39.65% 
HOWARD KALOOGIAN 11,401 16.36% 
ROSARIO MARIN 8,918 12.80% 
TONI CASEY 6,992 10.03% 
TIM STOEN 4,230 6.07% 
JAMES STEWART 2,775 3.98% 
BARRY L. HATCH 2,579 3.70% 
JOHN M. VAN ZANDT 1,893 2.72% 
BILL QURAISHI 1,281 1.84% 
DANNEY BALL 1,262 1.81% 
Write-In 726 1.04% 
Total 69,687 100.00% 

REP - STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 13 
429/429 100.00% 
  Vote Count Percent 
SHANE PATRICK CONNOLLY 17,147 83.62% 
ANDREW ABE DIAZ 3,061 14.93% 
Write-In 299 1.46% 
Total 20,507 100.00% 

DEM - STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 13 
429/429 100.00% 
  Vote Count Percent 
ELAINE ALQUIST 28,660 49.78% 
MANNY DIAZ 26,316 45.70% 
JOSE MEDEIROS 2,443 4.24% 
Write-In 160 0.28% 
Total 57,579 100.00% 

REP - STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 24 
265/265 100.00% 
  Vote Count Percent 
ERNEST ''ERNIE'' KONNYU 12,399 63.22% 
DAVID REDICK 5,797 29.56% 
FRED JANKOWIAK 1,286 6.56% 
Write-In 132 0.67% 
Total 19,614 100.00% 

* Numbers reflect Santa Clara County only

More: sccvote.org/

[BookmanTheJanitor]

final OC numbers

Yes 213707 43.1% No 282110 56.9%

[Positive]

San Diego hasn't updated it almost an hour.

San Berdu has computer issues.

Orange County is comming on.

LA County % is shrinking but it's a big number so that's trouble.

I'm still positive.

[BookmanTheJanitor]

San Diego 96% in

NO 247686 52.59%

YES 223314 47.41%

[ArmstedFragg]

final OC numbers

Thanks. That makes the jump for the last quarter of the count consistent with the two middle quarters. So, it took the usual "anti-conservative" swerve from the absentee numbers, then just ran along consistently from there.

[Drago]

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Proposition 55 Education Bond $12.3 Billion

20,121 of 21,796 precincts - 92 percent

Yes 2,621,927 - 50 percent
No 2,578,741 - 50 percent

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Signing off until I get home from work!

[BookmanTheJanitor]

Statewide numbers

20,121 of 21,796 precincts reporting (92%)

YES 2,621,927

NO 2,578,741

[Positive]

Hey Bookman, you're ahead of the Secy of State...where do you get the numbers? Not doubting you, just would like to have a source as good as yours.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Here's what's out

Alameda County 910/1086 (176 precincts)59% Yes
Los Angeles County 4184/4571 (387 precincts)51% Yes
Monterey County 52/112 precincts (50 precincts)53% Yes
San Bernadino County 0/819 precincts (819 precincts)56% No
San Diego County 768/1864 precincts (1096 precincts)56% No
San Joaquin County 363/479 precincts (116 precincts)52% No
Sierra County 11/16 precincts (5 precincts)61% No

It's gonna be an interesting night. About 52,000, 53,000 difference to make up from San Bernadino/San Diego to be offset slightly by Alameda. LA is a push depending on where votes are out from.

[CityOnAHill]

My very crude analysis of the trends shows the following pickups for prop 55 in the counties which have not reported totals. The San Bernardino trend is a real guess, since there are 0% reporting (I assumed that the reported amount is 10% of the total).

Alameda          9,033
Los Angeles      2,175
Monterey         2,800
San Bernardino -44,244
San Diego      -20,805
San Joaquin       -164
Sierra             -95
	
Total          -51,300

With these trands, the prop passes by 1,163 votes.

[Positive]

Yep just noticed that Orange is all in...No by about 70,000, good but probably not heroic enough.