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There are billions invested in VB apps that will not be easy converted...

Yes, but VB is based on a pre-Internet programming model that cannot be extended (that's why VB6 has been around so long), and its power and uses are extremely limited. A lot of those apps ARE going to have to be replaced simply because they are proving inadquate.

.NET is fine, but anything you write in it requires annual per-seat licensing fees to Microsoft.

That's a good deal for Microsoft, but I am not sure that all businesses measure their success in terms of how much of their profits are channelled to Bill Gates.

VB apps will continue to be used for years to come, .net will be used and ASP will fill the voids.

For better or for worse (for worse usually) MS has the edge and no Penguin Messiah is calling us up to heaven.

Things will diversify, things will change - but at a pace that makes economic sense; trashing a 3 year old system that has cost you millions does not make sense.

You will see organizations that are not entrenched in MS moving toward systems like Linux. That is what the authors of rabid Linux pieces do not tell you - that they are already running Sun, Novell, UNIX or AS/400 as the core.

Slowly MS entrenched organization will experiment and move toward systems that allow for more flexibility.

That is reality, anyone who tells you different is selling something or has an agenda.