The dems thought that in 94. They thought that with the gun shows when Paddy Kennedy and Carolyn McCarthy was chanting "6 seats" after Dingell and DeLay killed it in the house. Same with CCW is a ton of states. Out here, not one person that backed CCW lost re-election in 2000 or 98(although three anti's lost, one Repub, two dems).
There's also three groups that get off their butts and work election time. The pro-lifers. The gunners. The Chamber of Commerce officials(all of which often work together). That's the life blood of the party. Those are the three I always see on the ground.
DeLay wants to kill this. He'll do his best there, and did it once before with gun shows with Dingell's help. I hope he can come through. That'll make things a lot easier for Bush.