Posted on 06/12/2002 9:05:07 PM PDT by chasio649
Poll: Voters holding their noses
April 29, 2002
If California's election for governor were held now, voters would grudgingly give incumbent Gov. Gray Davis a second term over Republican challenger Bill Simon, according to the latest Field Poll.
While Democrat Davis has a 14 percentage point lead over Mr. Simon, six months before the general election, a deeper look at the numbers indicates unhappiness with both men, says Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll.
"It's kind of a `hold your nose' and vote campaign," Mr. DiCamillo said Monday in an interview on KGO Radio, San Francisco.
He says voters have strongly unfavorably opinions of both candidates. And while Mr. Simon held a slim lead over Mr. Davis prior to the March primaries, that has vanished in the seven weeks since the voting, Mr. DiCamillo says.
"He's become a little better-known," he says. But that not be helping Mr. Simon. Voters "who have gotten a bead on Simon in the past seven weeks" almost uniformly have a negative opinion of the GOP contender, he says.
The poll surveyed 546 voters by telephone April 19 through 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Posted on Mon, May. 06, 2002 | ||
Unpopular governor leads race, poll shows
Mercury News Ever since the lights went out last spring, Gray Davis has been the governor Californians love to hate. A Field Poll released today found that 49 percent of Californians disapprove of the job he is doing, while 42 percent approve -- a rating that has not improved for nearly a year and puts him squarely among the state's least popular governors in recent memory. Yet those numbers do not seem to be hurting Davis' chances for re-election -- at least not yet. The same poll found the governor is leading his Republican opponent, Bill Simon, by a comfortable 14 points. This seeming contradiction says much about the attitudes Californians have toward their leaders and much about the rare political creature that is Gray Davis. It also helps explain why some analysts believe Davis remains vulnerable in his re-election bid, despite Simon's lackluster showing so far and his position to the right of most California voters on the political spectrum. ``The basic story is that voters pick the best of the worst,'' said Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California-Berkeley. ``We've been doing it for 20 years.'' The poll was taken before revelations that the state had signed a multimillion-dollar, no-bid contract with Redwood Shores firm Oracle to provide state agencies with database software. A Mercury News investigation of the contract led to a state audit, which found the state could be stuck with unneeded software costing millions of dollars. Analysts say the scandal, if it continues, has the potential to threaten the governor's re-election. ``This could be a godsend for Simon, but we'll see,'' said Cain. Depends on record Some say Davis faces a unique obstacle in his bid to be seen as the best candidate. As a politician who readily acknowledges his blandness and even jokes about it, he has never relied on his personal appeal to win over voters. Instead, he has made his case entirely on his record. So when things go wrong, Davis has nothing to fall back on. ``Personality has no impact on people's attitude toward the governor,'' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. He said his approval ratings merely reflect how well the voters think the state is doing. ``It's all tied to his performance.'' Consider the assessment of Dan Griffing, a 51-year-old software engineer from Sunnyvale. ``I think he's kind of boring,'' Griffing said. He called the governor ``a bean counter, an accountant, not someone that's really a leader.'' Asked about the governor's job performance, Griffing replied, ``Can you say rolling blackouts?'' Davis campaign advisers say they are not worried about the governor's unpopularity, which grew worse when California's energy crisis hit. And there is a precedent for an unpopular governor being re-elected. Pete Wilson, who weathered California's last recession-induced budget crisis, was viewed more negatively than positively by voters yet went on to crush his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Brown. But the three previous incumbents -- George Deukmejian, Jerry Brown and Ronald Reagan -- were all in favor with voters when they won re-election. No incumbent governor has lost an election in California in 36 years. Davis, while once again the front-runner, will still have to wage a vigorous campaign in the fall. The Field Poll, taken between April 19 and 25, found that among registered voters, he fares even worse than he does among all Californians: 55 percent disapprove of his performance, while 39 percent approve. Yet voters have not embraced his GOP opponent. The Field Poll found that just 29 percent support Simon, compared with 43 percent for Davis. The 28 percent of voters who are undecided will determine the election. Simon, a wealthy businessman from Los Angeles, was a political unknown before his upset victory over Richard Riordan in the GOP primary in March. He won, in part, by wooing the conservatives who decide the party's primary but play a lesser role in the general election. Simon dipping Since then, voters appear to be souring on Simon. The April Field Poll found that more people viewed him negatively than positively, although 39 percent still said they had no opinion. The Simon campaign, which maintains that the race is much tighter than the Field Poll found, takes heart in the high percentage of voters who have yet to make up their minds, as well as the governor's low approval rating. ``He's running out of time to convince voters that he should be re-elected,'' said Simon spokesman Jamie Fisfis. But short of a scandal, one analyst says, Davis may not have much to worry about. ``We don't need a guy we can treat like a teddy bear,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior political scholar at the University of Southern California, summing up how she believes voters will approach this election. ``We need a governor who will do as little as possible to make our lives uncomfortable.'' Contact Laura Kurtzman at lkurtzman@sjmercury.com or (408) 920-5608. |
``We don't need a guy we can treat like a teddy bear,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior political scholar at the University of Southern California, summing up how she believes voters will approach this election.
``We need a governor who will do as little as possible to make our lives uncomfortable.''
BARF!
And this is so clear, it hurts.
Lehane and ______?
They must still be working for Davis.
First, Democrats have steadily lost registration. They are now below 45%, a first in decades. Republicans are over 35%, another first in many years. Reps are steadily gaining, Dems are steadily losing. Decline-to-states (so-called independents) are increasing ... not Democrats.
It is true that California is no longer the conservative bastion that elected Ronald Reagan to the Governor's office and the Presidency ... but California is not the liberal pit everyone would have you believe.
California is unique. Voters are, generally, turned off by the so-called "social" issues, but try and tax their SUV and they will drive a stake through your heart. However, even as recent as March 2000, voter by 62% voted for Prop. 22 -- a conservative, social ballot measure that said in California, marriage shall ONLY be between a man and a woman.
California is an expensive state to campaign not just because it has over 30 million citizens and 15 million registered voters. It is expensive because it's really six states. You can't talk about the same issues in Placer County as you do in San Mateo County as you do in Fresno County as you do in San Diego County. I could go on and on ...
Davis IS vulnerable, not just because he is a failure (though that DEFINITELY helps), but because he has made some assumptions about California that aren't helping him. He thinks he can win the election simply because he is pro-abortion. The fact is, few people vote on the abortion issue. People are going to be looking at him and saying, so? Who cares? They may be pro-life or pro-abortion, but they will be united in wanting to know about Davis' failed leadership ... on energy, the state budget, education ... the list goes on and on.
California voters are fickle. They go back and forth depending on what issue sticks in any given year. Davis is trying to create the issue -- abortion -- and it's not going to stick. Been there, done that.
Simon has a solid background, is an outsider (California also likes outsiders, i.e. not a career politician) and has developed into a good candidate and speaker. He's not as "polished" as Davis, but I think people look at Davis and see "phony", "untrustworthy" and look at Simon and think, "nice guy," and "honest". Basically ... they may not agree with everything Simon says, but they'll know he won't stab them in the back and steal their pocketbook while fundraising on the taxpayers' dime and selling his signature to the highest bidder.
Davis is corrupt. We have to get rid of him. Simon stands the best chance.
I wish you lived here too! You are RIGHT ON on your analysis!
GO SIMON!
ONLY POSITIVE USE OF CS SNOTITOR!
About The Field Poll: The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan, media-sponsored public opinion news service and has issued over 2,000 different reports. (Taken from a Google search.)
If these left wingers pollsters get a conservative, they will often hang up on you when you identify yourself as a republican or conservative.
I believe that Michael Savage used to joke that they went to the Gay Bath Houses during working hours for normal people to poll the Bath House participants for these polls.
The CS monitor has long been a tool of the Rats in Kali.. This POS posing as an article shows that tradition of being a political tool of the Rats continues.
When do the Rats, the Field/California Poll and the CS monitor lie?
This is one of the most bought out states with union payola, teachers, government jobs and other crapola! They buy the vote big-time out here.
Although I don't necessarily think this is true of Simon, it is such a delicious metaphor for the Democrats and Republicans over the last seven years that I definitely intend to bookmark it for future use.
State Senator Tom McClintock has excellent chances for his bid for Controller. He brought us the vehicle licence fee reductions (but Davis will raise the fees dramatically beginning next year), is very responsible, and is fiscally conservative.
If people see that the current AG has problems investigating the Oracle scandal because of conflicts of interest, Dick Ackerman may have a good chance at the job, too.
I don't know much about the other races, except Lt.Gov. might be a lost cause. This title is almost unrelated to the other 90% of the article slamming Simon's chances based on an outdated poll taken just before the Oracle and other no-bid contracts scandals dominated the headlines.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.