I respectfully think you're looking at this thing backwards. Despite being a powerful, well funded incumbent, Gray Davis only captures 34% of the vote. I can't remember the last time I saw numbers that low. Rod Grams (R-MN), I believe, was about 40% and he was considered DOA. (Turned out to be an accurate prediction, too).
There is still approximately 19% of those polled who are apparently in the undecided category. Plenty of room for either candidate to rise.
True, and there is nearly 5 months until election day. In addition to swaying those fence sitters, it's important that we work to GET OUT OUR VOTE!!! We need to increase the turnout for conservatives, Christians, gun-owners, pro-lifers, SUV-drivers, homemakers, homeschoolers, etc., etc.
Turnout is key. Davis is a total failure. We can't let him steal this election. And he will try.
Go Simon!