And Now, the Good News about Smallpox

Slate ^ | October 26, 2001 | Jon Cohen

[bimbo]

A Smallpox attack is not too likely. The last known case of the disease was in Africa (Kenya?) in 1977. Since then, the only known existence of the virus was at CDC in Atlanta and at a Soviet site in Siberia.

[tallhappy]

No-- the really good news is that the vaccine we have can ALL reserved for our children, who were never vaccinated.

Yes.

I've been saying this here for a while now, as have others.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

Well, for my last comment on this- I do have work to do today, unfortunately.

I think that your title for this SLATE article("THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT SMALLPOX") just bothered me. There really IS no good news, and if it were to be used as a weapon, the consequences (I believe) would be about as horrible for us and for the rest of the world as anyone could possibly imagine. Yet you are peddling false reassurance, and a sort of "move on, folks, nothing to see here" attitude that I associate with the senior management of the Post Office, or the Reno Justice Department.

You have consistently missed the point of my posts, and answered arguments that I have not made. This leads me to believe that you have some agenda- although it is hard to guess what it is.

In any case, I do have other things to do. Salud!

[TomB]

There really IS no good news, and if it were to be used as a weapon, the consequences (I believe) would be about as horrible for us and for the rest of the world as anyone could possibly imagine. Yet you are peddling false reassurance, and a sort of "move on, folks, nothing to see here" attitude that I associate with the senior management of the Post Office, or the Reno Justice Department.

You know, every time I made an assertion, I backed it up with a link. You, however, continue to make general statements that are just not true.

You have consistently missed the point of my posts, and answered arguments that I have not made.

Then why don't you restate your points, and I will address them?

[itwasntme]

I couldn't have said it better myself!!!

[Stefan Stackhouse]

This article seems to ring true with what I remember from my childhood in the the 50s and 60s and from what I know about how the immune system works. Once your systems makes an antibody, then my understanding is that you remain "hard wired" to make that antibody in the future if needed. There are exceptions, of course, if your immune system is damaged in some way. And it is true that if many decades pass without a need for that antibody, then the old immunice system may be a little rusty and slow to respond. But my understanding is that unless the virus mutates (thus making the antibody ineffective), a healthy system should still be capable of responding with antibodies. It is the tendency of viruses to mutate that most commonly requires new vaccination. The influenza virus mutates rapidly enough to require annual vaccinations, while the common cold exists in so many different mutant forms that it is not feasible to develop a vaccine at all, given that it is a relatively mild disease. HIV also mutates at a rapid rate, which is a major reason why we haven't seen an HIV vaccine yet. Many other viral diseases mutate very slowly, yet as long as they are present in human populations, even at low rates of infection, some mutation is possible. Thus, there are a number of viral diseases for which one should be vaccinated at ten year intervals.

Since smallpox has not been an active infection in human populations since the mid 1970s, if terrorists were to start a new epidemic with some of the stored samples, we might presume the virus to be unchanged from what was active earlier. Thus, those immune systems that had been vacinated back when that same virus was active should be just as capable now of producing antibodies as they were back then.

This would tend to suggest that this article is right: those of us who were vaccinated when we were younger might indeed still carry in our immune systems the ability to make antibodies should we become infected. Because the immune system is old and rusty, it cannot be guaranteed that wouldn't become sick at all. But it should be good enough to give our systems a little bit of a head start against a smallpox infection. A little bit of a head start in antibody production is all we need to assure that smallpox for us would be only a minor illness.

However, if the smallpox sample is subjected to ANY genetic engineeering, no matter how minor, then all bets are off.

[ecru]

My friend who is a biologist said the exact same thing as you. Okay now, when they were vaccinating way back when, did they have to re-vaccinate people every 3-10 years to keep it active? Or was it a one time deal. That should give us a clue as to it's length of protection.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

Hopefully, since breastfeeding has come back in vogue in the past 30 years or so, many children may have gotten some sort of protection from their mothers who were vaccinated. It may help them a little bit; it may make the difference between life and death.

Sorry, but no. The antibodies passed from mother to child only help while the child is breast feeding. What is then needed is the ability of the immune system to make its own antibodies. That can only happen if the immune system is exposed to the virus so that it can use it as a template to make an antibody, and then to store the design code for the antibody.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

A Smallpox attack is not too likely. The last known case of the disease was in Africa (Kenya?) in 1977. Since then, the only known existence of the virus was at CDC in Atlanta and at a Soviet site in Siberia.

If you realized that the guards at that Russian site were going unpaid for months at a time and could be bribed for a few bottles of Vodka, you might be a great deal less sanguine about the likelihood of a smallpox attack.

The World Health Organization has issued an alert to all governments to be prepared for a possible smallpox outbreak. My guess is that they weren't just sitting around and decided: "Gosh, we've nothing better to do, let's release this smallpox alert just for fun!"

[Interesting Times]

A Smallpox attack is not too likely. The last known case of the disease was in Africa (Kenya?) in 1977. Since then, the only known existence of the virus was at CDC in Atlanta and at a Soviet site in Siberia.

Not so.

Soviet defector Ken Alibek claims that some 20 tons of weaponized anthrax was manufactured...

[Interesting Times]

More cheerful information here.

[Vinomori]

Sadly, we the people have condoned the serial killing of more than 40 million of our children since 1973.

Why wasn't I told about this?

[Stefan Stackhouse]

So there are initial symptoms which are likely to cause the person to become bedridden, BEFORE the rash appears. So there is no "window of opportunity".

Yes, but that "bedridden" child is not going to be kept in bed waiting for the MD to visit. They'll be taken to a clinic or the emergency room, and the MD will examine them THERE -- after they have sat in a crowded waiting room for an hour or so, like usual.

A patient won't be known to have smallpox until an MD has examined them and diagnosed them as having smallpox. And in this day and age, that isn't going to happen in their bed at home, but in an examining room, after the patient has passed through a waiting room.

And of course, a single parent who is working and trying to support a family may not exactly be the perfect "Dr. Mom" when it comes to practicing proper isolation procedures, getting the patient to medical attention promptly, and making sure that they don't wear infected clothes to work, etc.

[winged1]

We got the polio vaccine on a sugar cube in the early 50's. Polio vacination is white scar on upper arm near shoulder.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

Seeing as how smallpox has been eradicated, the appearance of even ONE case will let you know.

If the current anthrax situation is the precedent, then I simply can't share your confidence that the public authorities are going to be able to instantaneously diagnosis a disease that nobody has seen in 30 years, instaneously determine the full extent of the outbreak, and then instaneously notify the public.

The appearance of even ONE case of pneumatory anthrax in Florida should have let us know that there was an anthrax bioterrorism attack underway. However, even government authorities, as well as MOST of the people on FR, were in denial about this for almost two weeks. Not a precedent to inspire much confidence, I'm afraid.

[winged1]

My bad - SMALLPOX is upper arm scar. 'scuse me...

[TomB]

Yes, but that "bedridden" child is not going to be kept in bed waiting for the MD to visit. They'll be taken to a clinic or the emergency room, and the MD will examine them THERE -- after they have sat in a crowded waiting room for an hour or so, like usual.

If there is a smallpox epidemic, there will be provisions made for isolating people in the hospital. You simply don't let contagious people sit around the general population. In the initial stages of the diesase, only a few days, there will be a chance for some infections like that, but once the first diagnosis of smallpox is made, quarantines can start.

[Harrison Bergeron]

"A Smallpox attack is not too likely. The last known case of the disease was in Africa (Kenya?) in 1977."

Somalia. It gives me the creeps thinking about the Somalia/OBL connection when I think about smallpox... I know its irrational... but if you do a google search on "smallpox" and read about the excruciating pain and horrible disfigurement it causes while it slowly kills a child... it's enough to cause nightmares.

[blam]

Thank you.