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Your charts are interesting and consistent with your analysis of them.

They remind me of news reports after a major natural disaster that say “The death toll is expected to rise.”

I always think- Well short of a mass resurrection, of COURSE the death toll is expected to rise.

That’s how I read the abuse numbers form the 1980 ordinations forward. Only two things are possible with these figures; remain static or increase.

The figures leading up to the crest from the 50’s through the 70’s may reflect less abuse, less willingness to come forward or both. My guess is less willingness to come forward. That statement is totally a guess, but based on how active the Catholic church was in those periods- especially in our cities and especially with schools and orphanages.

My guess is that reported rape cases would show a similar lower incident rate during those years as well- not necessarily because there were fewer, but because of the ‘you asked for it’ or ‘damaged property’ prejudices of that time.

Regardless. Accepting your data as a true reflection of the actual number of abuses- not just the actual number of reported abuses; I would caution against chiseling the data from more recent ordinands into granite too quickly.

For whatever reason, many of the victims have waited many years before coming forward. This is the case in many abuse cases- regardless of hetero or homosexual acts; church or secular.

Additionally, it would be helpful from an analytical viewpoint to know at what point in their ministries (after 5, 10, 20 years etc) did the abusing start and peak by the priests.

When the data for the age of the victims and the span since ordination of the priests meet with the data of the known cases; then the data can be truly compared.

I will agree that the data, at least on it’s surface looks promising; and will concede that there couldn’t be a ‘better’ time for a more recent victim to come forward- so perhaps that time delay will be compressed.

I also agree that the Church is doing a significantly better job at removing abusers from ministry in a manner that protects potential future victims and creates an environment for former victims to feel safe coming forward.

As far as reading the first few chapters of Job; the scriptural standard, although one which I’m certain I couldn’t live up to is:

Mat 5: 11-12 Blessed are ye, when men shall revile you, and persecute you, and shall say all manner of evil against you falsely, for my sake. Rejoice, and be exceeding glad: for great is your reward in heaven: for so persecuted they the prophets which were before you.

So, as long as the accusations are false- rejoice.

Of course, the balance to that teaching appears a few verses later:

Mat 5:25 Settle matters quickly with your adversary who is taking you to court. Do it while you are still with him on the way, or he may hand you over to the judge, and the judge may hand you over to the officer, and you may be thrown into prison.

Will Wallace