I see NO chance of a conservative winning a statewide office in Californica. NONE.
Hostility and nastiness in this regard are indeed misplaced and I try not to add to them. If I fail in this regard please whack me. It is true I have little patience with "true believers" who are blind to realities and do consider them dangerous but will try to not make it personal. But I do consider them my enemies since their actions will prevent progress in many areas and I consider some quite wrong in most of their political philosophy.
McC could only win if ALL republicans voted for him and the others split theirs almost equally. It is crucial to split the RAT vote. THAT is the most important part of this whole affair. Breaking up the automatic 35% RAT vote is the only chance for Republican success in Cali. As long as that remains the RATS will win every time. Who helps break it up is not important but that will NEVER be a hard core conservative.
Not being a Californian my only interest in this is in the damage it can do to the RAT machine and the positive effect it will have on Bush's 04 run. Arnold as governor would have a tremendously positive impact on his chances in California and spell enormous trouble for the RATS. McC winning would have almost NO impact as far as I can see.
I see NO chance of a conservative winning a statewide office in Californica. NONE.
Wasn't Simon pretty conservative? And didn't he get 42% or so of the vote in California? If you've got that high a percentage willing to vote for a conservative in a two man race, why couldn't the right conservative get a plurality in a three-man race?
Let's just change it up a bit. Suppose Arnold was more conservative on abortion, gun control, etc. I'm guessing that would have knocked McClintock out, and Arnold would have Simon's base plus whatever else his name recognition would attract. Add in some middle of the roader to take more votes from the lefty Busta, and a conservative Schwartzenegger might win.
The problem in this race is that McC just isn't the type of guy who inspires confidence in party as a whole. And since he can't nail down the Republican vote, and has little chance of anything in the middle, he's almost a sure loser. If a conservative is going to win, he must have the lock-step support of the party. At an absolute minimum. Add in the dynamics of a three-way race, and such a candidate has a chance. Unfortunately, McC isn't that guy, and the splintering occasioned by the recall is unlikely to be repeated.
So I think a conservative could have won this race. It's just that this conservative can't win at this point.