[montag813]

It is unfortunate that amateurs such as this group insist on using bad polling numbers. As of Saturday, both Arnold and Bustamante's internal polls show the two candidates neck-and-neck with McClintock at 10-11% tops. They also show a significant LOSS IN MOMENTUM for Tom due to the Indian Casino scandal. Our polls show a surprising drop in self-styled "Conservative" likely voters, and the Casino issue is mentioned as the main reason.

[b9]

This is a bit like the man who was stranded in a flood,
with the water rising all around his house and a rowboat comes along to help...
"No thanks," he says...."God will save me."
As the water rises higher, he climbs on the roof, and a motor boat comes along to help...
"No thanks," he says..."God will save me."
As the water rises further and he's treading water, a helicopter shows up yelling "Grab the ladder, we'll pull you up!"
"No thanks," he cries..."God will save me!"
As he reaches the Pearly Gates, he asks God,
"Why didn't you save me?"
"What are you talking about?" God replies....
""I sent you two boats and a helicopter!"

[per loin]

Sounds like Mondale predicting that if the Reagan supporters vote for him instead of Reagan, he will win.

[Dog Gone]

Barring some unforseen development in the campaign, I think it's far more likely that 60% of McClintock supporters will silently switch to Schwarzenegger on election day. If it appears from the last minute polling that a vote for McClintock is futile, many will rationalize voting for the lesser of the two evils who have a chance to win.

It's fine to support McClintock in the hope that he'll be competitive by election day, but if he's not some people will vote to stop Bustamante.

[aruanan]

“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

"Silent switch" sounds like the political version of "dark matter".

[Iris7]

You McClintock types are living proof that humans are not rational, but rationalizing. Your delusions are not generally interesting, but are now. You are doing serious and permanent damage to the effort to restrain Leftism. You are making the case well that the Right is crazy. You all are being very seriously irresponsible.

[jetson]

I here the press tell us Arnold is the man but I have not heard anyone on the streets yet talk about Arnold.

[DoctorZIn]

Join Us…Your One Thread To All The California Recall News Threads!

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[Dan from Michigan]

While Real Clear Politics isn't very credible, McClintock still CAN win.

Polls in general have a bad track record in recent years. Polls had John Engler with 38%. He won with slightly over 50%. Polls had Debbie Stabusall losing to Spence Abraham. Nope. Internal polls had Joe Hune at a distant third in the GOP primary. He won. Polls had Jesse Ventura losing in Minnesota.

1. The only poll that matters is on ELECTION DAY.
2. A vote for McClintock is ONLY a vote for McClintock. Those that whine about it being a vote for Cruz need to try and earn those votes instead of having the leftist sense of entitlement. If you think he's entitled to it, you should go to DU and join the liberals since entitlements are leftist. Arnold isn't entitled to jack. Neither is anyone else.
3. A vote for Arnold is a vote for Arnold.
4. A vote for Cruz is a vote for Cruz.
5. ANYONE of the three can win.

[Fred Mertz]

The main flaw in this analysis is that it assumes 60% of Arnold's supporters vote for McClintock, but zero percent vote for Busty.

[My2Cents]

Why assume that Arnold's supporters would automatically switch to McClintock? McC has proven that while good on the issues, he's a lackluster nothing who doesn't have the leadership qualities to be a decent Governor.

[BaBaStooey]

An intriguing argument.

However, factor for some or all of the remaining 40% going to Bustamante.....I guess.

The numbers would look different, then

[DoughtyOne]

Honestly guy, pardon me for thinking this looks a lot like a return to Calipso Louie Math by the "Vote No on Recall, Yes on McClintock to Elect Bustamante to Keep Schwarzenegger Out" crowd.

Here's an easier way to express your concept without all that confusing math.  "If more people voted for Tom, he would win."

The problem you have is that the general public has chosen not to vote for him.  If you guys could sell him to them, do you think folks here would join them in voting for him.

You guys have wasted your efforts on the forum for about a month now.  We're not your problem.

Now, you guys go ahead and post 250 more pro-Tom anti-Arnold articles here over the next two weeks for all the good it will do you.  Be sure to do it here, because it's the general public you'll be avoiding.  And please, don't consider that it's actually good for Schwarzenegger if you keep it up here.  All your energy that could be helping Tom out there where it counts will have been wasted.

Preaching to the choir, folks who actually like Tom's platform, must be very satisfying to you guys.  God forbid you expend your efforts off this forum so that his numbers would rise and people here could vote for him.

[Poohbah]

First mistake: assumes that the LA Slimes poll is accurate. They admit to overloading it with "social conservatives" by about 10%.

Second mistake: assumes that everyone makes the perfect decision. This issue is related to the Prisoner's Dillemma. Assumes perfect communication within conservative community (not demonstrated to date) and will not reject McClintock for various reasons (including demonstrated lack of good judgement or good character, take your choice if which).

In short, assumes that the conservative movement will magically behave like the Borg Collective, where all conservatives will submerge their individuality.

This is actually an interesting revelation of how McClintock's supporters view themselves, view conservatism, and what their ideal society would be like.

It's interesting to see how many "conservatives" await their man on horseback...one who looks and acts suspiciously like Mikhail Suslov.

[hawaiian]

Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock...

That thread wins the award (a new award which I think we should start giving out every month), for: MOST UNCONVICING ARGUMENT OF THE MONTH. I want McClintock too, but if that's the best argument he's got, then he's doomed! If only 60% of Gary Coleman supporters switched to me, I'd take over McClintock!

[HitmanLV]

This is strange math - asking for 60% to switch over is strictly fantasyland.

[muleskinner]

Frankly, I'm surprised many McClintock voters haven't learned the lesson of Perot/Bush/Clinton.

I did. And that's why I will vote for Arnold, and not waste it on someone who cannot win.

I guess they enjoy bi#@$ing & moaning year after year.

"All sound and fury, signifying nothing.'

[F16Fighter]

Why are so many "conservatives" perfectly willing to surrender their ideological sovereignty?

Would these same people so easily and so willingly surrender their national sovereignty?

What next?

[AmericaUnited]

I really do believe that if Tom gets all of the conservatives, independants, liberals, greens, demonrats, dead people, libertarians, CPUSA members, dogs, and illegals , to vote for him... HE CAN WIN AND WIN BIG!

[novice2]

>>Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions (sic) or does Schwarzenegger?<<
Many, if not most, of us who will NEVER!!!!!!!!! vote for McClintock. We consider him a bigtime Judas, a despicable man, who has conspired with the Dems because of pettiness and a nursed grudge.
Let's also face the fact that you folks on the McClintock (Pat Buchannan) side on this forum will never bring yourself around to voting for Arnold, even if McClintock pulled out.
That means that the California public outside this forum will make up their minds in the last two weeks.
But don't ever run this guy against Boxer or Feinstein and expect us to forget what he has done this year.