Ping-a-ling
Posted on 09/15/2003 4:03:57 AM PDT by mtbrandon49
RALEIGH, N.C. -- Sen. John Edwards has stepped aside to seek the presidency, and two Democrats who slugged it out in last year's Senate primary -- Erskine Bowles and Dan Blue -- may again battle for his seat.
Once again, Republicans have all but anointed a nominee, with Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem already jumping out to a huge fund-raising advantage and gaining White House backing.
But despite the early similarities, campaign consultants and political analysts watching the race don't expect a repeat of the 2002 Senate race in North Carolina.
In last year's contest to replace retiring Sen. Jesse Helms, Republican Elizabeth Dole had no trouble taking her party's nomination. She then easily outdistanced Bowles, the Charlotte investment banker who is a former Clinton White House chief of staff.
Bowles had no answer for the popularity Dole had gained after years of television appearances and speeches on behalf of her husband, former senator and GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole, and her own presidential bid.
At times, Dole's campaign appearances took on the appearance of rock concerts or highly stylized presidential campaign stops. Usually, she had no problem drawing large crowds.
Although few people expect Burr to face any significant challenge in the GOP primary, political analysts point out that he has little of the star power or name recognition of Dole.
Ferrell Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, noted that Dole's candidacy sparked a large surge in Republican voter turnout, a feat that could prove difficult for Burr to repeat.
"Burr represents a different kind of challenge than Dole for the Democrats. He doesn't have the glitz of Dole, but he fits the mold of the modern Republican Party," Guillory said.
Burr will also be running in a state in which joblessness -- particularly manufacturing job losses -- has worsened and become a more volatile issue.
Unlike Dole, Burr would be running on the same ticket with President Bush if he wins the GOP primary. But if the president's popularity continues to slip, so too will the advantages of running with an incumbent president.
Of course, Burr would have an advantage in not facing an incumbent. But with Bowles and Blue, a former state House speaker, expected to enter the race, the GOP nominee is likely to run against a seasoned candidate with whom voters are familiar.
"Burr is not going to have to face an incumbent, but he is going to have to face a Democrat with the full party rallied behind him," Guillory said.
Paul Shumaker, a Burr political consultant, said he believes Republicans are enthusiastic about Burr's candidacy and confident of victory in 2004.
His early fund raising -- donations total $1.8 million in the first six months of this year -- are evidence of his support.
"I don't think that the excitement that Richard Burr has generated has been driven by who or who will not be running from among the Democrats. It has been driven by Richard Burr," Shumaker said.
But in a state where Republicans and Democrats have traded Edward's Senate seat in every election since 1980, a close race is expected again. And Elizabeth Dole's wide victory in 2002 is likely to remain largely an anomaly in recent North Carolina political history.
Did Bush win North Carolina in 2000?
Ping-a-ling
As to the big turnout in 2002, it wasn't necessarily generated by Sen. Dole. Great pains were taken to put into place a turn out the vote machine during the last 72 hours. That was the lesson learned from 2000, where our margins in final polls always shrank to something less at the election. We just weren't turning people out.
This guy is full of it. The only thing the Dems have going for them is that Paul Shumaker is big in Burr's campaign.
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