[Coop]

If Dubya approaches 60%, then I agree Asa probably would knock her off (if he's running). I just think his voting total will be much closer to 55% (although higher than 2001's 51%).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I just think [Bush's] voting total will be much closer to 55% (although higher than 2001's 51%)."

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In the last pre-Clinton presidential race (1988), W's daddy got 56.4% in Arkansas against Michael Dukakis. Given the fact that both Kerry and Dean are more liberal than Dukakis, that W. is a popular president running for reelection (not just a VP viewed as a "wimp"), that social issues such as abortion, gays and guns (on which most Arkansans are conservative) are more important today than in 1988, and that W. has more of a home-field advantage in Arkansas than his New England-raised dad ever could, I think W. will get a higher total than his dad's 56.4%. If I had to make a prediction today, I would predict 58% for W. in Arkansas next year (which is between 55%-60%).