The Dems already (as we all know) take blacks for granted. The GOP tends to take that same tact ("Aw, they're black, they're gonna vote Democratic") in general, ignoring the slowly increasing black conservative base.
That base is small. It will continue to remain small in 2004. But by at least addressing it, even though the growth rate is small, it will begin to grow.
My personal feeling is that there won't be a significant increase in black conservative votership until at least 2008. But the worst thing the Republicans can do is to ignore that dissolusioned base now. Each conservative - black or otherwise - that can be brought to the fold is one less to have to worry about later. Not only that, the sheer power of being able to point to individuals who do not follow the Jackson-Sharpton party line is immeasurable.
My personal feeling is that there won't be a significant increase in black conservative votership until at least 2008.
2008 - that's three election cycles. While not as optimistic, I would concur, but my graph might go out to four - 2010. Two Congressional, and two general.
Not only that, the sheer power of being able to point to individuals who do not follow the Jackson-Sharpton party line is immeasurable.
Oh, absolutely! Something like this line of thought, as well as that recent high-profile Leo T. defection, start planting seeds of doubt in the other direction.
Thank you for the reasoned reply, as opposed to the vitriol from others.