Without calving off black voters from that great glacier of a voting bloc, that statement may very well be true.
Because the Socialists WILL write you off as no loss to their cause - until and unless, you start making inroads.
The DNC already dismisses black GOP's, because of your numbers as a voting bloc. And the GOP shouldn't throw away political capital - UNLESS, black GOP's can prove that they are a viable, growing movement.
It's now August of 2003. We really won't know what efforts have succeeded until November of 2004.
The Dems already (as we all know) take blacks for granted. The GOP tends to take that same tact ("Aw, they're black, they're gonna vote Democratic") in general, ignoring the slowly increasing black conservative base.
That base is small. It will continue to remain small in 2004. But by at least addressing it, even though the growth rate is small, it will begin to grow.
My personal feeling is that there won't be a significant increase in black conservative votership until at least 2008. But the worst thing the Republicans can do is to ignore that dissolusioned base now. Each conservative - black or otherwise - that can be brought to the fold is one less to have to worry about later. Not only that, the sheer power of being able to point to individuals who do not follow the Jackson-Sharpton party line is immeasurable.