Prediction: The future of the USA stock market

UCLA Department of Earth and Space Sciences ^ | July 17, 2003 | D. Sornette and W.-X. Zhou

[ThePythonicCow]

Interesting analysis of stock market futures ... well I find it interesting. An earlier version of this, posted three months ago on FR, under the same title Prediction: The future of the USA stock market, got raving ridicule.

[Timesink]

How rich have D. Sornette and W.-X. Zhou become off their analysis?

[Drango]

I've got a lot of lint in my navel.

[ThePythonicCow]

Likely not very ... or they wouldn't be working as Professors anymore.

So ... your point is ??

[Lazamataz]

You make it seem like stock market analysis is all about math or something.

[ThePythonicCow]

We shall see (the markets, that is; I've no interest in seeing your navel ;).

[ThePythonicCow]

Not all about math, but math is a useful tool for modeling various quantative behaviours, in this case herding behaviour. Perhaps you'd have to be a cow to understand ... <grin>

[Timesink]

Likely not very ... or they wouldn't be working as Professors anymore. So ... your point is ??

You just made it, thanks. :)

[novacation]

This is all very interesting, but trying to predict the stock market by graphs and patterns will never work. They forgot to take into account that Americans are basically bullish in their soul, willing to take risks, willing to work very hard to succeed,inventive,and have more ideas than any other nation.Add greed and the will to be number one and the graphs blow up. I don't see much point, but it was a nice academic exercise.

[Lazamataz]

Not all about math, but math is a useful tool for modeling various quantative behaviours, in this case herding behaviour. Perhaps you'd have to be a cow to understand ...

Gary Larson understood ALLLL about you cows.

[ThePythonicCow]

Americans, last I looked are people. I doubt that we have repealed the laws of human nature that have led to various bubbles, and subsequent collapses, in the past (including some nice ones here in the good old U. S. of A., if I recall ...).

I suspect that your line of reasoning better supports the conclusion that America makes bigger bubbles, not collapse-free bubbles.

[ThePythonicCow]

Gary Larson ...

My hero ...

[Petruchio]

Not all about math, but math is a useful tool for modeling various quantative behaviours, in this case herding behaviour. Perhaps you'd have to be a cow to understand ...

We are Republicans, we are like herding cats.

[kms61]

My prediction for the US stock market: it will be outsourced to India.

[novacation]

I'm am not real bullish on the near future of the market. But this perdiction is the most bearish I have seen to date. The S&P will not drop to the lows predicted. A major event, like a nuclear war, is the only thing not will send the market as low as the authors suggest. Since the market doesn't run on logic trying to predict it's future using logic is futile.I'm sure the authors are democrats,aacounting for their doom and gloom.The market may get constipated, but a collapse is not coming anytime soon without a major negative event. Just my opinion.

[ThePythonicCow]

We shall see. I for one am totally out of the stock market.

And that's not a political statement -- I object when it is suggested that whether or not you predict the market to go up depends on whether or not you are a Republican.

Rather it's a statement of financial prudence. I got out of the market in '99, got into Gold in Nov 2001, and so far ... knock on wood ... I've been up every year. Could have done better, but could have been alot worse too.

I do think the S&P will be much lower 12 months from now, than it is today.

And Bush will still win, quite nicely.

[ThePythonicCow]

Ok - fine - we agree the authors are likely not wealthy.

Now ... what did you think of the article?

[ThePythonicCow]

outsourced to India

LOL ... there may be more truth to that than I'm comfortable with.

[novacation]

You aren't up much with gold.It's a pretty color, but it ain't as green as the market can be if one stays alert.Gold will go nowhere for awhile. The charts have the drop coming very soon. If true it will be a buyers market, my favorite. There will always be something that will turn a down market around.What that saying? All that glitters is not ____.I quess we will have to see as you said.

[ThePythonicCow]

I agree on gold - that's why I got out earlier this week, having been in almost constantly since Nov 2000.

I expect I will be back in, but not right away. Right now, the only things I am investing in are my health, my profession, and my children.