Time To Phase Out Shuttle

www.floridatoday.com ^ | June 20, 2003 | Florida Today

[jehosophat]

For more than two decades, people from around the world have lined the shores near Kennedy Space Center to watch humans fly into orbit aboard NASA's space shuttles. It's a sight that never fails to take the breath away.

Going from a standstill to 17,400 mph in slightly more than eight minutes, the ships have a remarkable record of achievement, from rescuing stranded satellites to fixing the Hubble Space Telescope to building the International Space Station.

[RightWhale]

China will go to space and be number 1 in space

When this is perceived as imminent, the resources of America will be reallocated. It might be a race for a while, but we have all the structure we need to quickly leave any competitor in the dust. We ought to do it anyway, but we won't, because it is only one of many areas of interest to the system at this time.

[KevinDavis]

I hope when China sends a human up in space it wakes or collective asses...

[Light Speed]

Magnetic rail launch
Ion Drive [Plasma drive] for space

Magnetic levitation tracks may someday replace the traditional vertical launch pad

A full-scale track proposed by Marshall to be built and operated at Kennedy Space Center would be about 1.5 miles (2.4 kilometers) long. It would accelerate a spacecraft to about 2 Gs for 9.3 seconds and reach speeds of 400 to 600 m.p.h. (640 to 960 kilometers per hour).
Researchers at Marshall are already testing 50-foot (15-meter) and 400-foot (120-meter) tracks at the center.

Plasma drive allready exists

Boeing builds Zenon [gas] Ion thrusters currently used on satillites. Pulsed Plasma drive is another configuration.

[Atlas Sneezed]

"If we continue to ignore space, China will go to space and be number 1 in space."

Fine. Add that to being number one in egg foo yung, and they can really impress the other Communist nations.

[Paul Ross]

but we have all the structure we need to quickly leave any competitor in the dust...

Don't count on it. The Chinese are busy RELOCATING our key technical 'knee-caps' over to China, thanks to willfully blind indifference in the Administration and Commerce Dept., and agents, proxies, and flat-out rope-selling short-sighted traitors among our own.

[Paul Ross]

Yep, we still need the orbiter-type vehicle. Absolute only way to do the repair missions. But these missions are relative rarities. So the stress on the shuttle fleet can be reduced, once serious boost alternatives are available for the human-ferry and unmanned payload missions. Anybody compare launch costs for a shuttle unmanned payload versus an Atlas 5 (which is a totally NEW vehicle, BTW)?

[Paul Ross]

I agree that magnetic rail launch is the way to go, especially for the SSTO. If the whole vehicle, and its fuel supply, is accelerated to a decent Mach 1 linear speed, and preferrably given some vertical loft (as from a mountain-range in Colorado or Arizona) then we are already well able to design, build and fly economically SSTO's 'human-ferry ships' today that can reach relatively HIGH ORBITS.

I think the Ion plasma drive would be great for station-keeping and stabilizing functions. I am not sure that the thrust is high-enough for all major orbital maneuvers and atmospheric re-entry.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you for the heads up, Paul Ross!

On this one however, I agree more with RightWhale - mostly because of the political philosophy of the party in the White House.

Under Clinton, the desirable outcome was for China et al to be on par with the U.S. technologically and militarily. This is left-side view of how to achieve world peace, i.e. fearful regimes engage in war.

Under Dubya, even before 911, the mandate was to skip whole generations of technology in R&D for the DoD. Intelligence also got a big boost. And both were amplified after 911, though I'm sure we are not privy to the details. The right-side view is that the U.S. as sole super power is the best way to achieve world peace, i.e. regimes are not suicidal.

Therefore, if we should find ourselves in a "space race" with China during or following a Republican administration - I suspect that we would have an ample store of top secret technology in our toolkit to win. OTOH, if we were in a “space race” with China during or following a Democrat administration (esp. Clinton or Gore) – we probably wouldn’t have many secrets remaining and it’d be a toss-up.

Just my two cents…

[Paul Ross]

Therefore, if we should find ourselves in a "space race" with China during or following a Republican administration - I suspect that we would have an ample store of top secret technology in our toolkit to win.

One would like to think so, but I'm afraid it ain't so, for the simple reason they have been so successful pirating things which were clearly listed as 'defense-critical' technologies. I'm sure you're aware of the shocking theft of the Magnaquench company, which is critical for all of our modern defense aircraft and JDAMs. And as a further sad example of just how porous is our national technology security, and how incredibly-broad-based and vigorous is the Chinese techno-theft operation....I attach the following article on how they even are stealing stuff that was purely DOD-developed! Not even in the private sector at all! E.g., we can't be sure of anything anymore.

Insight on the News - World
Issue: 07/08/03

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PRC Espionage Leads to 'Terf' War
By Scott L. Wheeler

The U.S. Navy spent millions of dollars to develop Terfenol-D in the early 1980s, and intelligence experts estimate that the People's Republic of China (PRC) has devoted extensive resources to try to steal it. Insight has learned that these PRC efforts have paid off.

The spy target is an exotic material made up of two types of rare-earth metals called lanthanides, terbium and dysprosium, plus iron (FE). The NOL stands for Naval Ordnance Laboratory. Hence the name Terfenol-D.

Those who have worked with this exotic material call it almost magical. "It changes shape when you apply a magnetic field to it," says Jonathan Snodgrass, the chief scientist at Etrema Products Inc. of Ames, Iowa. Until recently, Etrema was the only U.S. company authorized by the Navy to work with Terfenol-D, following its development at the Department of Energy's Ames Laboratory, which is managed by Iowa State University. Scientists and engineers say Terfenol-D is a technology of the future with many commercial and industrial uses. But the Navy has its own uses for Terfenol-D, including high-tech sonar devices in U.S. submarines to detect and track enemy vessels. That is why the Department of Defense (DoD) jealously guards the process that produces this substance.

But a burgeoning demand from commercial markets for the material has caused Terfenol-D to be classified as a "dual-use technology." Since the Department of the Navy invented it, the DoD is allowed to say who can use it. So, in order for a U.S. company to export a product that contains even a tiny amount of Terfenol-D, that company must have permission from the DoD in the form of an export license. Even if such a license is granted, the DoD places strict limits on the exporter to ensure absolute control of the material. Although possession of some of the material would not by itself reveal the process, the DoD wanted to limit any opportunity for a potentially hostile government to get close inspection of the substance.

Despite the U.S. government's best efforts to keep secret the process that creates Terfenol-D, the PRC was able to obtain enough information to develop a crude version. Some U.S. officials tell Insight that China was able to obtain information about the secret process by placing "students at Iowa State University to work in and around the Ames Laboratory." Insight has learned that an active investigation is under way by U.S. government agencies including the FBI, which declined to answer questions posed by this reporter. Insight has confirmed that the government also has documented other PRC attempts to obtain the Terfenol-D process by espionage, spelled out in a classified document.

The Ames Laboratory confirmed that it had employed PRC students who attended Iowa State University, but it was unable to provide any details by press time. Government officials are concerned that technology transfers are occurring in the context of academic exchanges between scientists and students working to solve scientific problems. It is during such "problem-solving discussions," experts say, that students from China or elsewhere are able to gain information that they take back "to their home countries and advance technologies there that often wind up in weapons systems."

Insight also has obtained information that U.S. government analysts say shows continued and aggressive efforts by the PRC to "improve its Terfenol-D program" and "sell a copycat version on the international market."

Gansu Tianxing Rare Earth Functional Materials Co. Ltd. (TXRE) was founded in the PRC in June 1998, according to company literature, which also claims that TXRE is a private company. It says TXRE perfected its own technique to produce "Tb-Dy-Fe series giant magnetostrictive materials of high performance." That is, Terfenol-D.

An official familiar with the U.S. investigation tells Insight "that it is unclear precisely when the PRC came up with Terfenol-D," or where they got it, but Insight has confirmed through sources who did not want to be identified that the computer system of Etrema Products, the Navy contractor, was hacked approximately two years ago. These officials say the company reports that "within hours of sending e-mails to clients interested in the Terfenol-D technology, those same clients would be contacted by the PRC company attempting to sell the same material."

Etrema's Snodgrass tells Insight that he cannot comment on these incidents, but says of China's Terfenol-D program that "basically these are pirate knockoffs of our products" and the matter "currently is being reviewed by the company's legal counsel." Apart from the U.S. government's concern about the espionage aspect, Etrema Products sees the Terfenol-D project in the PRC as a potential patent infringement.

Insight contacted Adaptronics Inc. of Troy, N.Y., the U.S. agent for TXRE. A company representative named Philip Bouchilloux openly acknowledged that TXRE's product is their version of Terfenol-D. He says the company "just started distributing [it] a few months ago" and that "sales are not significant" at this point. Bouchilloux says Adaptronics is a U.S.-registered company with foreign owners but declines to reveal anything more about the company ownership. Asked if he is aware of Etrema's assertions concerning the patents for Terfenol-D, he says, "Yes, I am aware."

The U.S. Defense Security Service (DSS) is the agency responsible for tracking industrial espionage against companies with the clearances necessary to work on defense projects. DSS would not discuss the Terfenol-D incidents or subsequent investigation, but a manual it distributes to counterintelligence special agents lists "exploitation of Internet (hacking)" as "one of the most frequently reported foreign collection methods of operation."

In 1999, the U.S. House of Representatives released the Report of the Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns With the People's Republic Of China. Otherwise known as the "Cox report," it detailed PRC espionage against U.S. military technology. The report lists "rare-earth metals" and "special-function materials" as "exotic materials" that are "the key areas of military concern" about PRC espionage targets. The report also states that "Professional intelligence agents from the MSS [Ministry of State Security] and MID [Military Intelligence Department] account for a relatively small share of the PRC's foreign science and technology collection." Rather, the report explains, "The bulk of such information is gathered by various nonprofessionals, including PRC students, scientists, researchers and other visitors to the West."

A university faculty member who did not wish to be identified has provided Insight with biographical information on a student the faculty member considers unusual because the student had worked in the PRC on China's Terfenol-D program. The student, who we will call Chang, is studying for a doctorate at Penn State University, where there is extensive ongoing research on Terfenol-D for the U.S. Navy. At about the same time the hacking incident was discovered at Etrema Products, Chang applied to attend Penn State.

When Insight contacted Chang to ask about his experience in the PRC working with Terfenol-D, he candidly said: "The main work I did [in China] was collecting materials regarding the properties of Terfenol-D." At the time, Chang's supervisor was "Professor Dechen Chen," according to Chang's résumé. He tells Insight that his job in China was to "find out useful information" for Chen, who Chang says "is doing some research on a big project which I cannot release to you. It's confidential, regarding Terfenol-D. It's for the [People's Liberation] Army."

Chang says he currently is not working directly with Terfenol-D but on a related piezoelectric project, which involves ceramic-based active materials that respond to electricity the way Terfenol-D responds to magnets. Both would be targeted as "exotic materials" under the Cox-report definition. Asked if he still communicates with Chen in Beijing, Chang says, "I am keeping in touch with him."

Chang nonetheless tells Insight he is not working on any classified project at Penn State. The university lab where he works did not respond to Insight's efforts to confirm this.

A graduate student from the PRC who is known to have worked on a secret military project in China should not be doing research at a U.S. university with defense-research projects, say U.S. national-security specialists familiar with the way the PRC conducts espionage. And especially not on a high-tech material related to that on which he focused in Beijing. "The MSS recruits students" as espionage agents, says John Fialka, author and Wall Street Journal reporter, in his 1997 sworn testimony before the Joint Economic Committee hearings on economic espionage, technology transfers and national security. With as many as 50,000 Chinese nationals entering the United States each year, experts say the agencies tasked with being on the lookout for espionage can't handle the workload. "While the FBI makes an effort to watch foreign students and businessmen, China's flood has simply overwhelmed the bureau," Fialka says.

When Insight asked Chang if he was reporting on his work to the government of the PRC, he responded: "What do you mean by 'the government?'" He became very defensive, denying he was a spy, and announced: "If you are working for the government or the FBI you have to tell me."

Greg Carman, a professor in the Mechanical Aerospace and Engineering Department at the University of California, Los Angeles, says that as a technology Terfenol-D "is in its infancy" and that it has potential for "explosive growth." Carman tells Insight that crude analysis indicated Etrema's version of Terfenol-D still is "slightly better than the Chinese version," suggesting that the PRC may be closing the gap. While high-quality Terfenol-D being produced in China and marketed worldwide through TXRE may mean a cheaper and more plentiful product, the Cox report indicates that may not be good news for national security.

China's so-called Sixteen Character Policy, codified in 1997, calls for "blurring of the lines between state and commercial entities, and military and commercial interests," according to the report. Fialka says that "in this game China is a dragon with two heads." That is, its commercial companies often are part of the PRC's military research, development and procurement. The Cox report says the "main aim for the civilian economy [in China] is to support the building of modern military weapons and to support the aims of the PLA [People's Liberation Army]."

The military applications of Terfenol-D still are being explored both in the United States and China. One TXRE promotional document says that Terfenol-D used in underwater sonar "brought up the best quality ever with the detection range that can reach as far as 10,000" [kilometers, or 6,200 miles]. The same document stated that "when applied to aircraft, this smart material makes a smart wing, which can be controlled much faster with enhanced reliability."

In the context of China's Sixteen Character Policy, say U.S. national-security experts, proliferation of Terfenol-D could make the world a lot more dangerous.

Scott L. Wheeler is a reporter for Insight magazine.
email the author

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Experts Finding Many Uses for Terfenol-D

Scientists and engineers are finding important new uses for rare-earth ores called lanthanides that are found primarily in the Mojave Desert in California and the Boutou region of northern China. Laboratory scientists say these ores have unique properties when combined using high temperatures. For example, when heated with iron the lanthanides dysprosium and terbium create magnetostrictive material that the U.S. Navy, which developed it, calls Terfenol-D.

The Navy uses Terfenol-D in sonar and NASA is experimenting with it to see if it can be used in a linear motor for the Next Generation Space Telescope project. Engineers also see possibilities for Terfenol-D in applications such as fuel-pump actuators in the internal-combustion engine.

Piezoelectric actuators now are common, but piezoelectrics are ceramic-based and require electricity to change shape. Magnetostriction requires only a magnetic exposure, reducing the risk of igniting fuel by electrical arching.

While the military applications for these new technologies are driving much of the research being conducted in the United States, the Navy is quick to point out that Terfenol-D also has a host of consumer uses. "Tiny Terfenol-D actuators have been developed for use as part of a bone-conduction hearing aid placed inside a person's mouth," says a report from the Naval Surface Warfare Center.

A Portland, Ore., company already has harnessed the qualities of Terfenol-D for use as a sound actuator available in commercial markets in the United States and Europe. The Olympia Soundbug looks like a computer mouse with a suction cup. It transforms the shape-changing of a sliver of magnetostrictive material, Terfenol-D, to turn "any hard surface into a sounding board for music or voice."

Wave Industries began marketing the Soundbug earlier this year.

— SLW

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[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you so much for the article and for your insight!

[RightWhale]

The Chinese are busy RELOCATING our key technical 'knee-caps' over to China

That's fine. They aren't importing our structure; they think they would rather continue their own experiment in advanced industry. Technology in infrastructure and education in modern countries is the basic tool that everyone sees, but structure is what allows creation of appropriate technology. The gap is bigger--an interplanetary gulf-- than the language differences.

[tm22721]

SSTO is worthy of a Manhattan level national project.

Wrong.

Scalable, cheap fusion energy is worthy of a national commitment. And it would solve the shuttle problem as well.

BUMP

[CaptRon]

I have a tape of a program I saw on TV about 20 years ago called "The Rocket Pilots" all about the X-15 program. I keep hoping to see it on some cable channel again. In it, they say the Scott Crossfield could have been the first man in space if he had not followed orders.

[1Old Pro]

The shuttle will be replaced. Notice they are not building any new ones. It will be replaced by a super secret design probably already being flight tested. A plane that can "skip" into space.

[aSkeptic]

what we really need is this.

[KevinDavis]

The reason I keep talking about the X-15 is that I saw it on the Discovery Wings channel. We where close in having a true space plane. Real close

[CaptRon]

I agree. It just didn't have the charisma of the space program. I can remember reading about it in "My Weekly Reader".

[Mr170IQ]

... the core concept of reuse that the shuttle promoted is the right way to go ...

Re-use may have been the promise on which the Shuttle program was sold to Congress, but it never had a prayer of living up to its billing.

When NASA was plugging the Shuttle concept in the 70's, they claimed that the marginal cost per flight would be 22 million dollars (fifteen times cheaper than Saturn V launches). Fixed costs were totally glossed over.

In the real world, the shuttle program cost $760 million per launch during the 2001-2002 missions.

Personally, I believe that the best hope for Cheap Access To Space would be a two stage fully reusable kerosene/LOX rocket weighing about 120 tons that would be launched from a modified 747 that could put about five tons of payload into a zero degree low earth orbit.

[activationproducts]

Wouldn't he have burned up on reentry? The X-15 didn't have heat shielding.

[bicycle thug]

"Personally, I believe that the best hope for Cheap Access To Space would be a two stage fully reusable kerosene/LOX rocket weighing about 120 tons that would be launched from a modified 747 that could put about five tons of payload into a zero degree low earth orbit."

Or a rocket like that with your choice of fuel (or nitrogen peroxide) sling shot skyward from a magnetic rail system high in the equatorial Andes Moutains in South America. (Some SF authors like Larry Niven wrote about this concept of launcher.)

In any event, as I recall nobody was terribly snowed by the cost projections made wearing rose colored sunglasses at that time, so this has never bothered me much.

I see humans as withering and stagnating without a real frontier to head into, so this is all investment to a good end to me, not money down a rat hole.

Once we have a human culture living untethered from deep gravity wells, we collectively will wonder why we didn't go out there sooner in any event.

Thanks for your feedback on this, but my imagination has been inspired by thoughts of space exploration for my entire life. The cold waters of the capital needed to build the infrastructure for it has no real effect in dampening this particulAR 'fire' of mine.

The first adult book I ever read was Heinlein's "Rocketship Galileo" in junior high school. I'm afraid that I am a 'hopeless' case who's pulse still quickens at the sight of even footage of a shuttle launch. ;-)