The Dems Who Fled

National Review Online ^ | May 27, 2003 | David Guenthner

[GiovannaNicoletta]

AUSTIN, TEXAS — Politics has always been bizarre in Texas. Perhaps never more so than two weeks ago, when most of the Democrats in the Texas house fled to Ardmore, Okla., for four days to kill the congressional redistricting and some 200 other house bills.

Some background first: The Texas constitution has a two-thirds quorum requirement. Most of the time it's not an issue, but this also isn't the first time quorum has been intentionally broken to stop a controversial bill. In 1979, a group of 12 senate Democrats hid out in a West Austin garage apartment to block a bill that would have changed the date of the Texas presidential primary to benefit D-turned-R former Gov. John Connally. There have also been times when a group has walked out on the house for a few hours, but nothing on the magnitude of this most recent event.

ANATOMY OF A WALKOUT

Other news accounts in the Texas papers have focused on the logistics of how the Democrats pulled this off. I think the more telling question is why they did it. From my conversations with house members from a variety of factions, I gather there were three distinct groups with different motives coalescing around congressional redistricting and deciding to drop the legislative equivalent of a nuclear bomb.

The kamikazes: About eight to ten partisan liberals make up this group. They were key players in the last regime — committee chairmen, appropriations members, etc. — and at the center of every major issue. Whatever they wanted, passed. Whatever they opposed, died. Life was good for them. Then last November happened.

When Republicans won 16 seats and a solid majority in the house, the Old Regime ended. More galling still, the new speaker was Tom Craddick, the Republican primarily responsible for the regime's demise. It was clear the plum assignments would be distributed to others. Therefore — from the moment Craddick announced sufficient support to become speaker — the kamikazes determined to make his tenure as miserable (and, they hoped, as short) as possible.

Non-controversial matters, such as suspending the Texas constitution's regular order of business, now became the subject of floor debates. The art of slow-talking bills ("chubbing") was raised to include the introduction of dozens — in some cases, hundreds — of similar amendments which had no chance of passage. Last month's house budget debate — which usually takes two to four hours — took four days, thanks to 484 amendments which mostly involved transferring funds from a list of 16 disfavored programs to another list of 20 favored programs. Each hostile amendment was followed by a demand for a record vote. Points of order that were not called in the last couple of sessions are being raised again. And some of them have said that they were laying the groundwork for a walkout for about two months.

If the kamikazes were to lose, they wanted Republicans to win as little as possible and for Craddick to finish the session looking like the first U.S. House speaker after the Republicans took over in 1994: Newt Gingrich. Through the steady escalation of tactics over the session, so far they've accomplished both goals.

The red lights: Most of the Democrats (about 30 to 35) belong to this category. They represent safe Democratic districts and vote reliably with party leaders. These folks would object to any congressional plan that reduced the size of the Democratic delegation. However, they have also complained throughout the session about the "fundamental unfairness" of the process and the heavy-handed way the house has been run. Their efforts to amend bills have been defeated by a stable bloc of 80 to 90 votes. Some Republicans privately acknowledged that, though willing to support some amendments, they had also been directed by Craddick to toe the leadership line. One Democratic committee chairman told me that many Democrats had lost faith in their ability to influence the process, and viewed this maneuver as a "last rallying call" to prevent themselves from being completely steamrolled.

The trapped: These are about ten rural conservative members who represent swing districts. Given their druthers, they would have stayed in Austin. Most have voted with the Republicans on a number of issues this session — including tort reform, which enraged the Democratic party's trial-lawyer sugar daddies.

There are rumors that the trial lawyers offered to absolve pro-tort-reform Democrats who went to Ardmore. If so, that gave these conscripts a choice. By staying in Austin, they would face token challenges next November but savage primaries in March. If they went to Ardmore, they would get a free pass in March but the state GOP would move heaven and earth to take them out in November — with President Bush driving the turnout.

In the end, it probably came down to the redistricting map, in which their popular local congressmen got eviscerated and their rural areas would be attached to districts anchored in the suburbs. Their involvement put the effort over the top. But even so, these guys were watched like hawks by their colleagues to ensure they didn't bolt back to Austin.

Change either of the latter two circumstances and the walkout would not have occurred. The debates would have been long and vitriolic — even by this session's standards — but they would have happened, the votes would have been cast, and the Republicans would have won.

NOW AND LATER: WINNERS AND LOSERS

Over the short term, the issue appears to be helping the Democrats. Newspaper editorial boards have been critical of both Craddick and the redistricting proposal from the outset, and their pronouncements became still more withering during the walkout. The reporters are in feeding-frenzy mode over inappropriate use of law enforcement resources to track down the Democrats and the destruction of documents that would clarify who was responsible for those abuses.

The balance of power in the last few days of the regular session has shifted to the senate, where Democrats have somewhat more influence. Of the bills that died, the provisions that come back to life will do so either on senate bills or as amendments to house bills added in the senate. Additionally, the relative stability and positive public image of the senate and its leadership right now give it tremendous leverage in any conference-committee negotiations.

Longer-term, though, the walkout could work to the Republicans' advantage. The state is struggling to close a $9.9 billion budget shortfall and it will be touch-and-go whether the lawmakers can patch together enough revenue and budget savings to completely close it by next Monday. There are also sharp differences between the house and senate on medical liability, insurance regulation, and transportation.

Failure to reach agreement on any of those fronts could prompt Gov. Rick Perry to call a special session this summer, to which Perry would probably add redistricting to the agenda. This would hurt Democrats because they would have another issue to keep them in Austin, the Republicans would have time to get the redistricting process and plan right, and the Democrats would lose their biggest stopper — the senate's two-thirds rule. In a regular session, two-thirds of the senate must agree to bring a bill to the floor, meaning that even if the Republicans all voted together, they would have to pick up at least two Democrats. In a special, that drops to a simple majority, which allows the Republicans to pass a plan even if they lose every Democrat — and three Republicans.

Initial polling shows Texans reacting very negatively to the walkout. Add in some of the bills that died from the walkout — tougher penalties on child pornographers, allowing students who are victims of violence to change schools, automatic expulsion of students who assault teachers, increasing the school property-tax exemption for the elderly and disabled, the creation of "Choose Life" license plates — and all of a sudden Republican challengers to the rural Democrats have some hot-button campaign ads. With Bush atop the ticket, Republicans could bolster their majority by several seats — and make future Democratic walkouts vastly more difficult to pull off.

[GiovannaNicoletta]

I was waiting for somebody to map out how that imbecilic walking-out stunt could hurt the Rats. This sounds plausible to me.

[justlurking]

the creation of "Choose Life" license plates

There was collateral damage from this last weekend.

A Republican insisted on adding this license plate to a larger bill creating a significant number of non-controversial specialty license plates.

It apparently had the votes to pass, but rather than allow it, Democrats raised a point of order (something about a committee hearing notification not provided 2 hours in advance, as required), and killed the entire bill.

[justlurking]

I was waiting for somebody to map out how that imbecilic walking-out stunt could hurt the Rats.

The liberal newspaper editorial boards and partisan Democrats are the the only ones supporting the walkout.

Almost everyone else thinks it was a juvenile act. Those Democrats from the rural/conservative swing districts are going to have a difficult time in November.

I've been considering a look at the voter demographics for the Democrats that ran crying to Mommy in Oklahoma. Maybe that will be my project tonight.

[Between the Lines]

What are the odds of Perry calling a special session? It would seem to be the Pubs best weapon at the moment.

[Defiant]

What are the quorum rules in the House during a special session, and if it's still 2/3, what's to keep the Dems from leaving for Tahiti the day the regular session expires?

They only need 12 dems to get a quorum--there are 88 Pubbies. They ought to keep close track of 15 or so, and if it looks like they are trying to hightail it again, bring 'em in. Too bad the Texas law enforcement doesn't have Echelon.

[JohnnyZ]

Supposedly the odds are excellent that there will be a special session, 'cause there's mad financial stuff that needs to be worked over.

[MattAMiller]

I was waiting for somebody to map out how that imbecilic walking-out stunt could hurt the Rats. This sounds plausible to me.

I thought it was pretty obvious. Voters hate this sort of stuff. This is going to burn the Dems badly. I really don't know what they were thinking. And I can't see how their helped by whining that somebody was trying to find them.

[lonestar]

Interesting! Thanks.

[Vision Thing]

The Chicky Ds may have won the fight to postpone redistricting, but when they did it, I thought it was nothing more than what stock-market participants call a 'dead cat bounce'.

A dead cat plummets, but it will rise momentarily when it bounces off the bottom. Nonetheless, it's still a dead cat. And it will eventually fall flat to the ground, where it will ultimately stay.

These Ds won a small battle. However, they're gonna lose the war.

[MeekOneGOP]

Thanks for posting this !!

The Dems Who Fled

Excerpt:

Failure to reach agreement on any of those fronts could prompt Gov. Rick Perry to call a special session this summer, to which Perry would probably add redistricting to the agenda. This would hurt Democrats because they would have another issue to keep them in Austin, the Republicans would have time to get the redistricting process and plan right, and the Democrats would lose their biggest stopper — the senate's two-thirds rule. In a regular session, two-thirds of the senate must agree to bring a bill to the floor, meaning that even if the Republicans all voted together, they would have to pick up at least two Democrats. In a special, that drops to a simple majority, which allows the Republicans to pass a plan even if they lose every Democrat — and three Republicans.

Initial polling shows Texans reacting very negatively to the walkout. Add in some of the bills that died from the walkout — tougher penalties on child pornographers, allowing students who are victims of violence to change schools, automatic expulsion of students who assault teachers, increasing the school property-tax exemption for the elderly and disabled, the creation of "Choose Life" license plates — and all of a sudden Republican challengers to the rural Democrats have some hot-button campaign ads. With Bush atop the ticket, Republicans could bolster their majority by several seats — and make future Democratic walkouts vastly more difficult to pull off.

Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my Texas ping list!. . .don't be shy.
No, you don't HAVE to be a Texan to get on this list!

Full Texas Ping List . . .

[RoseofTexas]

Think again my friend! In my ROTTEN RAT town, these CLOWNS will be voted in office time and time again!! IF the pubbies have the B***S to fight the RIVER RATS, HIT them where it hurts! Paul Moreno and Joe Pickett, the BASTARDS, are fighting tooth and nail for a Medical School here in my town. If the pubs deny the school then a Republican can run and have a chance of getting elected here. Fault them for their little scheme, let them pay for it!! Let it be known that the walkout endangered the project! My fellow town's people will be STEAMING mad at the RATS...TRUST ME!! LET'S PLAY HARDBALL!! It's about TIME!

[Dog Gone]

That was the piece of information I was looking for. I've speculated about it, but didn't know what the rule for a special session would be.

In my opinion, that ensures that we'll bring up redistricting in special session, and it explains why Republicans have been so quiet about it since Ardmore.

[mathluv]

Brit talked about it tonight on Special Report.

[CyberAnt]

The other thing that doesn't look very good is Frost's involvement. He's the dem rep who drew up the last redistricting plan for the dems (when they were in power in the TX house). For them to throw stones at DeLay is just plain hypocricasy in spades. Plus, it was Frost's aide who was caught on tape stealing a set of the plans.

And ... FOX was telling today (Brit Hume) that a Frost aide was in Ardmore setting up that location, and another of Frost's aides organized the "victory party" when the dems returned.

I don't know what the angle is about DeLay supposedly calling on Homeland Security to look for the dems - but I think that was prudent - these idiots were a sitting target for terrorists. It was very irresponsible of them to just take off.

Also ... who's paying for this little "vacation" ...?? If these people expect the taxpayers to pay for this stunt, I think the dems will have hell to pay; even for those districts considered safe.

[justlurking]

OK, here's good information from the election demographics. If I start with just the distribution of votes (R vs. D), it doesn't look very promising:

Name, City	R	D
Patrick Rose, Dripping Springs	49.5%	50.5%
John Mabry, Waco	48.6%	51.4%
Gabi Canales, Alice	47.7%	52.3%
Dan Ellis, Livingston	46.9%	53.1%
Jaime Capelo, Corpus Christi	46.2%	53.8%
Scott Hochberg, Houston	45.2%	54.8%
Timoteo Garza, Eagle Pass	44.2%	55.8%
Robby Cook, Eagle Lake	42.6%	57.4%
Jim Dunnam, Waco	39.8%	60.2%
Joaquin Castro, San Antonio	39.7%	60.3%
Jim McReynolds, Lufkin	38.9%	61.1%
Juan Escobar, Kingsville	38.4%	61.6%
Barry Telford, Dekalb	38.0%	62.0%
Dora Olivo, Rosenberg	37.3%	62.7%
Mike Villarreal, San Antonio	35.9%	64.1%
Pete Laney, Hale Center	35.4%	64.6%
Jim Solis, Harlingen	32.0%	68.0%
Allan Ritter, Nederland	30.3%	69.7%
Steve Wolens, Dallas	29.8%	70.2%
Pete Gallego, Alpine	29.0%	71.0%
Lon Burnam, Fort Worth	27.8%	72.2%
Kevin Bailey, Houston	26.4%	73.6%
Roberto Alonzo, Dallas	26.0%	74.0%
Elliot Naishtat, Austin	24.9%	75.1%
Norma Chavez, El Paso	0.0%	100.0%
Garnet Coleman, Houston	0.0%	100.0%
Yvonne Davis, Duncanville	0.0%	100.0%
Joe Deshotel, Beaumont	0.0%	100.0%
Dawnna Dukes, Austin	0.0%	100.0%
Craig Eiland, Galveston	0.0%	100.0%
David Farabee, Wichita Falls	0.0%	100.0%
Jessica Farrar, Houston	0.0%	100.0%
Kino Flores, Mission	0.0%	100.0%
Ryan Guillen, Rio Grande City	0.0%	100.0%
Terri Hodge, Dallas	0.0%	100.0%
Mark Homer, Paris	0.0%	100.0%
Chuck Hopson, Jacksonville	0.0%	100.0%
Jesse Jones, Dallas	0.0%	100.0%
Glenn Lewis, Fort Worth	0.0%	100.0%
Ruth McClendon, San Antonio	0.0%	100.0%
Trey Martinez Fischer, San Antonio	0.0%	100.0%
Jose Menendez, San Antonio	0.0%	100.0%
Joe Moreno, Houston	0.0%	100.0%
Paul Moreno, El Paso	0.0%	100.0%
Rick Noriega, Houston	0.0%	100.0%
Rene Oliveira, Brownsville	0.0%	100.0%
Aaron Pena, Edinburg	0.0%	100.0%
Joe Pickett, El Paso	0.0%	100.0%
Robert Puente, San Antonio	0.0%	100.0%
Chente Quintanilla, Tornillo	0.0%	100.0%
Richard Raymond, Laredo	0.0%	100.0%
Eddie Rodriguez, Austin	0.0%	100.0%
Senfronia Thompson, Houston	0.0%	100.0%
Carlos Uresti, San Antonio	0.0%	100.0%
Miguel D. Wise, Weslaco	0.0%	100.0%

I will note that Rose (Dripping Springs) just barely beat the incumbent last November. I can't believe he was dumb enough to walk out -- he will almost certainly lose next election if an opponent runs a decent campaign.

More to follow in a moment.

[Diddle E. Squat]

You might be interested in the next to last paragraph, it seems to indicates that redistricting will pass this summer.

[archy]

In my ROTTEN RAT town, these CLOWNS will be voted in office time and time again!!

They have 10 million illegal alien voters on their side. And it's the Republican leadership who's helping to add more.

Either the Republicans change, or it's no longer the United States.

[justlurking]

If we sort according to the US Senate vote in the previous election, things look even better. Keep in mind that this was an election for a vacated Senate seat, with no incumbent advantage: Cornyn (former Texas Attorney General) vs. Kirk (former mayor of Dallas):

Name, City	R	D
John Mabry, Waco	64.8%	35.2%
Chuck Hopson, Jacksonville	63.6%	36.4%
David Farabee, Wichita Falls	63.0%	37.0%
Pete Laney, Hale Center	61.9%	38.1%
Mark Homer, Paris	58.6%	41.4%
Robby Cook, Eagle Lake	58.4%	41.6%
Dan Ellis, Livingston	58.1%	41.9%
Allan Ritter, Nederland	56.8%	43.2%
Jim McReynolds, Lufkin	55.4%	44.6%
Patrick Rose, Dripping Springs	54.8%	45.2%
Barry Telford, Dekalb	53.3%	46.7%
Craig Eiland, Galveston	49.7%	50.3%
Scott Hochberg, Houston	47.7%	52.3%
Pete Gallego, Alpine	47.1%	52.9%
Gabi Canales, Alice	45.8%	54.2%
Joaquin Castro, San Antonio	45.3%	54.7%
Jim Dunnam, Waco	45.0%	55.0%
Carlos Uresti, San Antonio	44.9%	55.1%
Jaime Capelo, Corpus Christi	42.6%	57.4%
Mike Villarreal, San Antonio	42.2%	57.8%
Timoteo Garza, Eagle Pass	41.3%	58.7%
Jose Menendez, San Antonio	41.2%	58.8%
Trey Martinez Fischer, San Antonio	40.2%	59.8%
Robert Puente, San Antonio	39.5%	60.5%
Dora Olivo, Rosenberg	39.3%	60.7%
Jessica Farrar, Houston	36.8%	63.2%
Juan Escobar, Kingsville	34.9%	65.1%
Ruth McClendon, San Antonio	34.6%	65.4%
Rick Noriega, Houston	34.0%	66.0%
Kevin Bailey, Houston	33.9%	66.1%
Jim Solis, Harlingen	32.9%	67.1%
Steve Wolens, Dallas	32.9%	67.1%
Joe Moreno, Houston	30.8%	69.2%
Joe Pickett, El Paso	30.5%	69.5%
Lon Burnam, Fort Worth	30.1%	69.9%
Yvonne Davis, Duncanville	28.5%	71.5%
Elliot Naishtat, Austin	27.8%	72.2%
Roberto Alonzo, Dallas	27.3%	72.7%
Chente Quintanilla, Tornillo	27.1%	72.9%
Rene Oliveira, Brownsville	27.0%	73.0%
Miguel D. Wise, Weslaco	26.2%	73.8%
Dawnna Dukes, Austin	25.2%	74.8%
Eddie Rodriguez, Austin	23.6%	76.4%
Senfronia Thompson, Houston	23.0%	77.0%
Kino Flores, Mission	22.4%	77.6%
Joe Deshotel, Beaumont	21.7%	78.3%
Paul Moreno, El Paso	21.6%	78.4%
Glenn Lewis, Fort Worth	21.1%	78.9%
Terri Hodge, Dallas	20.0%	80.0%
Garnet Coleman, Houston	17.3%	82.7%
Aaron Pena, Edinburg	16.9%	83.1%
Norma Chavez, El Paso	14.7%	85.3%
Richard Raymond, Laredo	14.7%	85.3%
Jesse Jones, Dallas	13.9%	86.1%
Ryan Guillen, Rio Grande City	10.4%	89.6%

When we consider the vote for a statewide office, things look much better. There are at least 11 Texas House members that are vulnerable, based on last November's voting patterns.

One of the reasons for the significant change is that some of these House members were running unopposed, even though their district was voting majority Republican. I hope the Republican party is paying attention and recruits quality candidates for these districts.

One more post to follow.

[justlurking]

Finally, if we sort by voting percentages for Governor, we get even better prospects. I saved this one for last, because it was an incumbent governor vs. an opponent with a questionable reputation, waging a negative campaign that back-fired.

Name, City	R	D
John Mabry, Waco	71.0%	29.0%
David Farabee, Wichita Falls	67.3%	32.7%
Robby Cook, Eagle Lake	66.4%	33.6%
Pete Laney, Hale Center	66.0%	34.0%
Chuck Hopson, Jacksonville	64.5%	35.5%
Mark Homer, Paris	61.9%	38.1%
Dan Ellis, Livingston	61.5%	38.5%
Patrick Rose, Dripping Springs	60.5%	39.5%
Allan Ritter, Nederland	58.0%	42.0%
Jim McReynolds, Lufkin	57.6%	42.4%
Craig Eiland, Galveston	52.2%	47.8%
Gabi Canales, Alice	52.1%	47.9%
Barry Telford, Dekalb	51.3%	48.7%
Scott Hochberg, Houston	50.7%	49.3%
Jim Dunnam, Waco	50.4%	49.6%
Jaime Capelo, Corpus Christi	48.9%	51.1%
Pete Gallego, Alpine	46.1%	53.9%
Joaquin Castro, San Antonio	45.9%	54.1%
Carlos Uresti, San Antonio	45.4%	54.6%
Mike Villarreal, San Antonio	42.7%	57.3%
Dora Olivo, Rosenberg	42.4%	57.6%
Jose Menendez, San Antonio	41.9%	58.1%
Timoteo Garza, Eagle Pass	41.7%	58.3%
Trey Martinez Fischer, San Antonio	40.9%	59.1%
Robert Puente, San Antonio	40.2%	59.8%
Juan Escobar, Kingsville	39.1%	60.9%
Jim Solis, Harlingen	38.8%	61.2%
Joe Pickett, El Paso	38.8%	61.2%
Jessica Farrar, Houston	37.4%	62.6%
Ruth McClendon, San Antonio	37.2%	62.8%
Elliot Naishtat, Austin	35.3%	64.7%
Steve Wolens, Dallas	34.0%	66.0%
Kevin Bailey, Houston	31.9%	68.1%
Chente Quintanilla, Tornillo	31.7%	68.3%
Dawnna Dukes, Austin	31.6%	68.4%
Rick Noriega, Houston	31.2%	68.8%
Yvonne Davis, Duncanville	30.9%	69.1%
Rene Oliveira, Brownsville	30.5%	69.5%
Miguel D. Wise, Weslaco	29.9%	70.1%
Lon Burnam, Fort Worth	29.6%	70.4%
Joe Moreno, Houston	29.5%	70.5%
Eddie Rodriguez, Austin	28.1%	71.9%
Roberto Alonzo, Dallas	26.1%	73.9%
Paul Moreno, El Paso	26.0%	74.0%
Kino Flores, Mission	25.3%	74.7%
Senfronia Thompson, Houston	25.2%	74.8%
Glenn Lewis, Fort Worth	25.1%	74.9%
Joe Deshotel, Beaumont	23.0%	77.0%
Terri Hodge, Dallas	21.7%	78.3%
Garnet Coleman, Houston	20.8%	79.2%
Aaron Pena, Edinburg	19.5%	80.5%
Norma Chavez, El Paso	17.9%	82.1%
Jesse Jones, Dallas	15.2%	84.8%
Richard Raymond, Laredo	11.1%	88.9%
Ryan Guillen, Rio Grande City	9.8%	90.2%

Using this methodology, there are at least 15 districts in which Texas House members are vulnerable.

The Texas House is currently split 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats. If the Republicans were to defeat 12 Democrat incumbents and hold on to their current 88, that would give them 100 Republicans.

That's a quorum, and the Democrats could no longer run home to Mommy in Oklahoma to obstruct legislation.

[Tall_Texan]

There was a story about Rose in the Austin American-Statesman after he returned. The guy is just 24-years-old and apparently won because locals were mad at the incumbent Republican and this child was their only alternative on the ballot.

It's a suburban area south and southwest of Austin which is generally made up of ranchers and those who needed to get the heck away from Austin but still be able to drive there for work. There's no question he is ripe for the picking, even with the Statesman's cheerleading behind him.

Another object lesson on what happens when you stay home or don't vote Republican.

I don't think the walkout is going to cost the Dirtycrats very many seats however.