JMT: Great thoughts and right on the mark. The economy was expanding at >4% rate in the 4th Qtr. of 1992 (Clinton claimed: people were anticipating my election and policies) in full recovery from the mild recession caused, in large measure, by Bush's tax increase... So the recovery was stunted in large measure by Clinton's retroactive tax increase -- and tax revenues from the upper income classes that Clinton targeted DID NOT materialize for, I think, the first 2 years of the tax being in effect.
The thing that bailed out Bubba's *ss was the collapse in energy prices (in effect this was a major offset for the economy, businesses and consumers compensating for Bubba's tax increase) and the benefits of NAFTA (the only smart thing Bubba did in his first administration). On the deficit front, he benefited from the S&L crisis being essentially cleaned up under Bush (that was adding tens of billions to the annual deficit -- this disappeared after 1992 and actually turned into a surplus as the Resolution Trust Co. spun out reformed S&Ls). And you are right: the GOP takeover in 1994 brought spending discipline that the Demos never planned on (plus some tax cuts and importantly the capital gains tax cut in 1998, I believe).
It gets tiresome, but we have to keep repeating the TRUTH about that awful period known as the Clinton Administration.
Remember in that collapse of the oil prices, bjclinton was calling for a $25.00 a barrel price of oil, the Russians were having a really hard time coming up with cash when the price of oil fell.
It would not surprise me if that was about that time the UN RIP OFF of "Oil for Food" program, created a blackmarket economy for those who opposed removing Saddam.