ANATOMY OF AN ATROCITY

Terrible as the atrocities in Riyadh were, the attacks also convey a hopeful message: al Qaeda has been weakened, and perhaps crippled, by America’s war against terror. For 18 months, we have been wondering when al Qaeda would launch another suicideterror attack inside the United States or in Europe – but when the moment finally came, al Qaeda was evidently unable to reach outside the borders of its home base, Saudi Arabia. The planning of the attacks showed considerable sophistication; yet evidently al Qaeda has failed in its plans to acquire weapons deadlier than ordinary explosives. This is a group that is vastly less capable than it was in September 2001 – a deadly beast, but a dying one.

Can we though hear an end to this nonsense about how al Qaeda’s prime target is Saudi Arabia? Over the years, al Qaeda seems to have gone to some trouble to avoid harming Saudi nationals. Even this latest attack concentrated its lethality very carefully on foreigners. Al Qaeda may wish to topple the current crown prince and shame the ruling family – but even as it commits mass murder it goes out of its way to avoid confrontation with the larger Saudi regime.

Nor is the Saudi regime quite so implacably opposed to al Qaeda as it would wish us to think. Remember, bombs have been going off in downtown Riyadh for three years now – and up until this point, the government has pinned responsibility on Western “bootleggers,” two of whom it has sentenced to death: a Brit and a Canadian. Al Qaeda is waging war to the death against the United States; between al Qaeda and the House of Saud however we are witnessing an elaborate pantomime combat out of kabuki theater.

Which suggests that while it may be wise for the United States to withdraw its uniformed forces from Saudi Arabia, the administration needs to be very careful lest it reduce Amercan power in Saudi Arabia too far – for in the end, a Saudi Arabia left to its own devices may prove to be a very hostile place indeed.

I don't agree with Frum's conclusion. I think we need to pull our troops out of Saudi Arabia precisely because the Saudis are our enemies.

It's always awkward to admit that an old friend was really an enemy all the while. And it's especially awkward to use troops that were invited to base themselves in a country to invade that country. That would NOT be good PR, nor would it encourage anyone to allow us to base their troops in their countries.

It's much better to pull out entirely, and then go back in if needful--as I think it will be in the next year or two.

Saudia Arabia is a partnershipof the Sauds and the Wahhabis. Each would like to do away with the other but each needs the other to maintain its own position and existence. It is complicated by the fact that some of the princes are also Wahhabis. By the terms of the deal the Sauds get to be fabulously rich and have the status pf rulers while the Wahhabis are in charge of the culture, including the schools and the mosques. The rule has been consistent and, while medieval, has not been randomly oppressive.

In Iraq there is some lattitude for modernization and democracy as the subjects of Stalin-not-so-lite react against the old regime. That is not so likely in SA if we were to remove the Sauds and the Wahhabis together. All of the peoples' schooling and religious experience has been of an extreme anti-infidel character with Christians and Jews-America and Israel, effectively identified as the source of all disharmony.I think we would have to operate SA as an actual colony for a generation with complete replacement of the school system and suppression of the Wahhabi mosques and close oversight of their replacements through a moderate, perhaps Turkish, Moslem credentialing organization.

Iraq could stand that sort of colonialism for a time, itself, but its people are probably more amenable to modernity. Iraq needs a massive influx of American private capital with lots of McDonalds' and jobs and job and management training. Perhaps Nikes should be nmade in Tikrit.

The Palestinian problem can also and probably only be solved by colonial rule by America for that generation or 2 required to erase the vicious anti everything training in the schools and the mosques. A larger overall treatment might be making Jordan an American "Protectorate" and including a suitably shrunken WestBank in Jordan with the target again being the schools and mosques.

Including the mosques might seem to fly in the face of our fiercely held beliefs about freedom of religion but that should be limited to freedom of religion within the jurisdiction of our Constitution. Normally I would oppose interference in the ternets of a religion but when those tenets include war and destruction against everyone else then those tenets should be forcibly deemphasized. We cannot rewrite the Koran but we can educate the children to western ideas that would modify the emphases on the war suras.

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