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The problem, as I see it, is lodged in the way the order is composed in the Republican Party.

The fact is that the Republican's enjoy the support of the grassroots conservatives across the nation. These folks are the voice of America. These are the pro-gun, anti-abortion, pro-Constitutionalists that make-up the BPOU's across the mid-West and the South. These folks find the Republican's the vehicle closest to their ideals since the Democrats have become the agent of international socialism and moral decay.

The ruling leadership of the Republican party is still composed of establishment elitists who care very little for the social agenda of their support, but know that they can use the active base for their gain. As a result, the Gingrich's, Dole's and other's continue to oink (when prodded) but rarely root deeply and consistently on our behalf.

At some level, Conservatives know that their representation beyond the Congressional level rarely merits loyalty on actions alone. Nonetheless, because of the alternative (socialist excressence) the faithfull line up to vote the lesser of two evils in the hopes that their wishes will be honored.

In the last decade, this loyalism has paid dividends. The Republicans now mouth grassroots agendas, but still rarely act in kind. This rhetoric, however, is still an indicator of what pressures are in play at the time. As things stand now, the grassroots have never been served so well in the last 30 years. Even so, incrementalism is a hard row to hoe for long-suffering folks that carry the party's water year in and out.

The final division will be down the road. If the Republicans cannot follow the desires of their voters to the degree that their foot-soldiers wish when the road is free, clear and open, a division will occur. For the time, this confrontation is assumed to be distant by party elites.

I see this at the state level all the time. The laughter of paid party people and office holders at the expense of grassroots workers is shamefull. At the national level, flacid weenies like Bob Dole should tell the intelligent observer all that is needed to be known.

In short, the ebb and flow of the electorate is based on factors like these observations and more. Locale, timing, issues and history all bear on the greater whole as well.

Just a few opinions and observations to start the ball rolling...