Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

NewsPundit.net ^ | 4/18/2003 | Douglas Oliver

[ex-Texan]

Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:

* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.

Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.

But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *

In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.

The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:

* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.

The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.

But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.

If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.

That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.

How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.

What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?

[steve86]

Yes, I don't have it in front of me but recall the NIOSH 95 specification is for 95% of filtration efficiency of 0.3 micron particles (close enough for .gov work).

[Domestic Church]

" I do have a nightmare...and that's IF the epidemic gets a genuine foothold in the US, and some CDC jackass gets a regulation passed that nurses have to work and can't refuse..."

If that happens (and you don't want to be forced to work) you move and don't leave a forwarding address.

[CathyRyan]

I found this article about the less than bright things people do when it comes to sars...like breaking quarantine etc. I thought you might like to see it.

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,184157,00.html

[Domestic Church]

"under the new FDA guidance, people who contracted SARS would be deferred from donating blood until 28 days after their symptoms had resolved.

People who have recently traveled to Asian regions where SARS is prevalent also would be barred from donating blood for 14 days after their return to the United States. These regions consist of China, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Vietnam and Singapore."

We don't know how long the virus is shed...what if one is still contagious for months after symptoms subside? Why don't they just say you can't donate blood if you've been to these places? They tell folks who have spent time in Great Britain they can't donate because of mad cow disease!

[theFIRMbss]

>Give me the name of the company and the venue of the meeting. I will notify both the King County and Seattle Health Departments.

Thank you for the thought,
but I don't want to meddle
that openly in

my brother's life. But
I did get him to schedule
a visit to his

doctor for TODAY,
so I'm sure his doctor will
take whatever steps

need to be taken.
(My brother has asked that I
stop pestering [!] him,

so that he can sleep
through the weekend. I'll know more
Monday. Thanks again.)

[blam]

"Admittedly this is too extreme at present, but I am trying to plan ahead."

Thanks for the input. I'll have to consider my four doggies too.

[Domestic Church]

Everything clinical I have read here on FR points to airborne.

[Judith Anne]

I've heard of no local cases yet. Hoping, truthfully, that I never do.

[riri]

Public health officals Scramble to Explain Unlinked Toronto Case

I don't know what the mystery is. It was said that the religous group members had been active throughout the community. It seems at least one made multiple trips to the ER, while HCP told him he didn't have SARS.

[Domestic Church]

"When I retired from chip-making, we were routinely printing patterns in the .25 micron range."

We need to pull you out of retirement.

[Judith Anne]

Scary. Wonder if any health care personnel got infected?

[Judith Anne]

Good article.

I was wondering what parents will do if their children are hospitalized with it...what will a wife or husband do, if their spouse is dying?

I don't know how I'd handle it...

[_Jim]

Along the lines of what per loin concluded earlier:

Hopes for decline in Hong Kong SARS cases

A Chinese medical specialist says the number of new cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Hong Kong may have peaked.

A delegation of Chinese and Hong Kong medical officials met recently in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou to discuss how to combat the spread of SARS.

Chinese delegate Zhong Nanshan says he believes new cases of the mystery virus in Hong Kong have stabilised.

Dr Zhong says only 29 new cases of the illness were reported in Hong Kong on Thursday, compared with 61 cases a week earlier.

A total of 1,297 cases of the virus have so far been recorded in Hong Kong, with at least 65 deaths.

The World Health Organisation says it is confident the SARS epidemic had also peaked in Guangdong province in China, where it is believed to have originated.

From: http://www.goasiapacific.com/news/GoAsiaPacificBNA_835477.htm "Your ABC gateway to the Pacific"

Notice of Trademark
The ABC logo is a registered trademark of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. The ABC logo may not be used without the prior specific, written permission of the ABC.

[blam]

"We need to pull you out of retirement."

Nope. In that business, you either get out young or die young. The stress is enormous.

[_Jim]

Epidemic curves, 8 April,

From http://www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurves_04_08/en/index1.html

(I don't know if posting a chart from their site is going to work - so this is a test!)

[ninenot]

People attending this Financial Institution's Conference did not wash hands, blew their noses into the carpeting, and used plumbing which was leaky.

Thus spread the disease, as in China.

[ninenot]

He cited the statistics for influenza (ordinary flu) deaths in the USA at around 35,000 a year.

Out of how many cases? 1,000,000? 5,000,000?

[ninenot]

Don't sit on public toilet seats.From the rest of your list, I also deduce that one should not:

---sit on elevator buttons

---sit on grocery store refrigerator handles.

[_Jim]

Looks like the case count in China is about to do a big jump.

Uh oh ... somebody is about to make the fatal mistake of assuming numbers on paper reflect reality.

I would rather they continue to hide the ones they've been 'hiding' (like the military hospital figures) - such that the same 'sources' report up through the chain *yielding* the same representative cross-section of the population we've been seeing. I'm interested in *rates of figures* (rate of increase) per week - not absolute numbers ...

[aristeides]

No SARS updates over Easter.