Hollings' indecision hurts party

The State ^ | 4/13/03

[LdSentinal]

U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings is fast reaching the point when he must let the South Carolina Democratic Party know whether he's going to run.

Time is growing short.

The party needs to start shopping for a candidate soon if he's not going to seek re-election. Whoever is going to run needs to start raising money now. Estimated costs for a statewide campaign are somewhere between $6 million and $8 million.

While Democrats are waiting for Hollings to decide, Republicans are lining up to run for the office. They are raising money, signing up supporters and getting organized.

So far, four GOP candidates have emerged: U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint of Greenville, former Attorney General Charlie Condon of Sullivan's Island, Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, and Charleston real estate developer Thomas Ravenel.

Others may enter.

In short, Republicans are getting a head start while Hollings dilly-dallies.

Hollings, who has served in the U.S. Senate since 1966, has everyone guessing whether he will run for a seventh term in 2004. He and his staff send out mixed signals.

When people inquire, Hollings says he hasn't made up his mind. But then he threw everyone off by holding a fund-raiser last month in Washington.

Andy Davis, his press secretary, says the senator "is still in the decision-making process, but he wants to keep both options open."

Then later, Davis says, the senator is "planning to run."

Which is it?

Hollings ended 2002 with $933,000 in his campaign account, not much to brag about but enough to give Democrats hope that he might run.

Nationally syndicated columnist Robert Novak recently wrote that national Democratic campaign operatives are convinced that Hollings, 81, will not seek re-election. They say he lost interest after Republicans swept South Carolina in last year's election and the GOP regained control of the U.S. Senate, forcing Hollings to surrender his committee chairmanship and the clout and influence that go with it.

It is no secret that the senator's wife, Peatsy, doesn't want him to run again. Friends also are advising him not to. They say if he runs he would face an uphill race.

Unlike 1998, when Hollings ran, 2004 is a presidential election year. And South Carolina is one of the most Republican states in the nation in those election years.

Maybe Hollings will make some news when he addresses the May 3 state Democratic convention. Maybe he'll give a hint as to what he's thinking.

Democrats feel they can't wait much beyond that to start gearing up for what will be the only statewide race in South Carolina next year.

State Democratic chairman Dick Harpootlian said Hollings needs to announce his intentions shortly after the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on May 2.

"I would think by the first of June at the latest we would need to know what he's going to do," Harpootlian said.

And if he doesn't run?

"We have several folks out there who would be competitive," Harpootlian said, without naming them.

By delaying an announcement, Hollings risks inviting a primary opponent should he ultimately decide to seek re-election. State Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter of Orangeburg has been mentioned by some African-American leaders as a potential candidate.

The state's political landscape has changed dramatically in the six years since Hollings last ran. And regardless of what he decides, Democrats will be hard-pressed to keep the seat.

[Arkinsaw]

Who in the world are they going to get to replace Senator Cornpone?

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[byteback]

I think he should retire and the Dems should run the most liberal AA they can find. Make sure that reparations is the key issue.

[Migraine]

Toooo much vassilatin' goin' on out deyah.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Inez Moore Tenenbaum, State Schools Superintendent. She's won the office a few times and might actually be a credible challenger for the 'Rats.

[goldstategop]

I think Hollings could actually be beaten. It doesn't look good for the Dems in South Carolina at all.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Oh, I believe Hollings can be beaten, too. He should've been beaten back in '98 with Bob Inglis (and with more resources, Tommy Hartnett could've taken him out in '92). I still don't know why Inglis was never able to rally the troops. Hollings is not revered like Strom Thurmond is (who still had a zest for the Senate well into his 90s), and it's showing now that he's no longer in the majority that he's lost interest. Interesting to note that the highest percentage of the vote a Republican has gotten against Hollings was a man named Marshall Parker way back when Hollings first ran in 1966 (Parker received almost 49% of the vote, and SC came just that close to being the first former Confederate state to have 2 Republican Senators since Virginia in 1885. We got the title here in TN in 1970 when Bill Brock took down the last remaining 'Rat Senator, Albert Gore, Sr.).

[Moose4]

Hollings is VERY beatable. They wouldn't be talking about running Gilda Cobb-Hunter if he wasn't. Cobb-Hunter is a fairly obscure state legislator, but she's got the proper, uh, ethnic qualifications. As a black female in a heavily black state, she can play the victim card to the hilt--every time the GOP challenger gets the least bit rough with her, she can play the race card like Al Sharpton, AND the sex card, a la Hillary with Rick Lazio. She'd lock down 90% of the black vote and probably get enough guilty white carpetbagger liberals to have a chance at winning. It's a semi-desperate strategy, but the Rats are getting fairly desperate down here.

Inez Tenenbaum, maybe. She was about the only Democratic officeholder to survive the Mark Sanford-led GOP tidalwave in 2002 and is thought to be doing a decent job as Superintendent of Education.

I don't think a white male Democrat has any chance of winning statewide in SC right now. Lindsay Graham proved that by his win of Strom's seat.

}:-)4

[LdSentinal]

Inez Moore Tenenbaum, State Schools Superintendent. She's won the office a few times and might actually be a credible challenger for the 'Rats.

According to this previous article in 'The State,' Tenenbaum (D) seems more interested in running for governor in 06'.

SC: Democrats likely to lose Fritz's seat

[fieldmarshaldj]

If the 'Rats pull that strategy with Cobb-Hunter, it will only blow up in their faces. Even with some White liberal voters, they don't like having the race card being rammed down their throats so blatantly (they'd just end up sitting out the election). As was said, the 'Rats have a big problem that they no longer have much of an appeal to White voters in places like SC (despite '98, which was a fluke election/backlash against David Beasley). The Black voter turnout was even up last November, and it got them bubkas. The GOP similarly needs to take their message to the Black community and ask them if they want to continue to put all their eggs in one political basket and become more and more irrelevent as the GOP grows in strength. We shouldn't be afraid to do it, since we have nothing to lose and the Black community has everything to gain.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Tenenbaum, assuming Sanford doesn't screw up a la Beasley, might be a pretty tough opponent (although I don't think she's really had a tough opponent herself). If the 'Rats were smart, they'd run her for the Senate.