Posted on 02/19/2003 12:15:08 PM PST by Richard Axtell
Thoughts have previously occurred to me, regarding similarities the Frank Herbert's "Dune" as relates to the Ozama Bin Laden phenomenon and the rise of Isamofascist fundamentalism, but they involve a specific aspect of the Herbert story, and thereby reflect some of the economic dangers to the West that may just now be appearing. Please forgive the strains this kind of speculation and comparison of actual events with a fictional tale put on credibility, and just bear with me for a moment. Also, please don't take my musings as any kind of endorsement or lionization of Bin Laden as some kind of hero, as they are not. But do think about the distortions inherent in myth making and the kind of megalomania that seemingly rules Bin Laden's evil character.
Ok, here goes: The Frank Herbert epic tale of "Dune" begins with the anointing of a new messianic character in Paul Atreides as "Muad'dib". This occurs as Paul's family clan is overwhelmed by treachery after migrating to take over control of the desert planet of Arrakis- the only source of the highly valued, life-prolonging "spice" Melange. Paul survives the onslaught of his treacherous enemies, the Harkonnen clan, and becomes an outcast among the indigenous people of "Dune", the "Fremen". Paul is reborn in the eyes of what become his devoted followers as "Muad'dib". According to a prophecy, a messiah would appear that would lead the virtuous but oppressed Fremen to Galaxy wide victory, in a "holy jihad" that would cleanse the universe of corruption and evil.
The interesting point I find in all of this is a line from a speech given by Muad'dib to his Fremen followers, in which he commands them to destroy all spice production on Arrakis, because "... he who can destroy a thing, controls a thing." Muad'dib's strategy is to bring the galactic empire to its knees by cutting off the supply of the absolutely essential "spice" as it is crucial to the lives of the corrupt, ancient and decrepit ruling class, and the entire culture of the galaxy, and forcing even the Galactic Emperor himself to kneel to Muad'dib's absolute authority.
The obvious comparison of oil to the "spice" in Herbert's tale didn't really hold up, until recent reports of Al Quaida plans of attacking Saudi oil refineries surfaced. Attacking oil production by the self styled "mahdi" Ozama Bin Laden made little sense, as long as his material support relied on oil rich arab states as his economic benefactors. But now, the "evil" Americans have succeeded in smashing his system of training camps and his strongholds in Afghanistan, and is chasing him worldwide, with even increasing success. He may still be alive and at large, but he is no fool, and clearly recognizes that his days are numbered.
So, why not now take that final apocalyptic step, and attack world oil production, with the aim of destroying the world economy? Wouldn't that be the most crushing blow Bin Laden could ever really hope to mete out against his envisioned mortal enemy, America and the West? Who cares about the well heeled arab aristocracy and current corrupt governing class? To hell with them! The true believers will suffer little anyway from the fall of the infidels, but instead will replace them in world dominance... ultimately! "Allah Akbar!"
Think of how very vulnerable the world's petroleum distribution infrastructure is, by its very volatile and inflammable nature. Quick, stealthy attacks by small shoulder launched missile wielding terrorist units on poorly protected oil wells, ocean drilling platforms, tankers, pipelines, refineries, oil tank farms, and even gas stations could drive the price of oil into the stratosphere, in a matter of days! It would be next to impossible to protect all of the vast and strung out storage, production, and transportation, distribution, and retailing infrastructure as it currently exists. The threat alone would have a profound effect on prices, much less a determined "suicidal" attack on world oil production. A world-wide oil/energy crisis would precipitate an world-wide economic depression, that would take enormous resources to reverse, devastating already fragile Western economies... potentially setting off the kind of world war Bin Laden has long lusted after, ... Petro-Armagedon!
Our only protection against such a "war on oil" has been the simple reality that only a fool would cut his own economic throat. But this constraint may now mean nothing to a fatalistic future martyr, with a bigger, grander agenda than just enormous economic wealth. Will Bin Laden "destroy a thing to control a thing"? Can he even attempt such a thing? We shall see.
With respect to the "destruction is control" aspect, I see the poetic link, but not a true parallel. In the world of spice, all who were addicted would literally die without it--even the Fremen. That is different than the current situation with oil. If the Arab oil were cut off, the world would enter a prolonged depression, but would wind up with energy sources such as coal derived oil in 10 or 15 years, and survive at a less glamorous standard of living. The Arabs would be the most affected, and they would not be world players again--for centuries.
Bin Laden's threat, and Saddam's, to torch the oil, is more akin to Hitler's view--if he (or they) can't have it their way, they'll destroy everything around them.
To keep the new industry going an import tax could keep the price at that the $35.00 per barrel level thus making synfuels economically feasible. The market would adjust to the increase in price just like it did in the early 70's during the embargo. This would be the short to mid term solution to our energy needs. The long term would be hydrogen fuel cells and finally controlled fusion itself.
American's will always adapt and prevail. That is what these 6th century morons don't understand.
DE OPPRESSO LIBER
No it couldn't. It would bump the price up a buck or two, max, but oil production and distribution systems are so numerous and spread out over the globe so much that a band of fugitives like Bin Laden's goons wouldn't be able to put any noticeable dent in it.
Furthermore, Muad'dib did not actually destroy spice production - his power came from the ability to threaten such destruction. Actually doing it would have crippled him as much as the universe.
Regards, Ivan
Today's oil price is $37 a barrel, according to Drudge. How much higher can the price per barrel go before it begins to have an marked negative effect on the world economy? Al Qaida is purported to have cells in 60+ countries. Certainly any attack on world oil production would have a short term effect, but would that effect be enough for Bin Laden to try it, given his desperate straits? As I mentioned in my opinion piece, I am not arguing so much that this would actually work, but that Bin Laden might just be disposed to make such a suicidal and certainly destructive attack on the basis for so much of the world economy. The speculated about attacks on Saudi oil refineries would be an indication of such a fatalistic strategy, if they do occur.
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