I spoke with a friend I served with (He was involved in maintenance of B-52s for twenty out of his thirty years in the AF) and he wasn't surprised at all. He mentioned that when the Shuttle was originally built, they guesstimated that 1 out of every 25 missions would have a serious problem, just because of the complexity of the Shuttle and the stresses it endures when it launches and comes down. He thought the odds were a little low, but that NASA pouring over the things in between missions minimized the chances of a problem.
Unfortunately, it doesn't take much at 12500 miles an hour to cause a problem that is unrecoverable. I'm sure the terrorist and conspiracy types are having a field day, but I don't believe there are any missiles made that could hit a target at over 150,000 feet at 12500 miles an hour, especially outside the US.
This is going to sound cold-hearted, and it's not meant to be, but the Space Shuttle is risky business, and accidents are going to happen. People in this country have become soft over the years and don't realize just how dangerous space travel can be. We are going to see a lot of money spent going in circles (especially Congress, they like this high-profile/high-tv ratings stuff and will milk this tragedy for all it's worth) and more than a few will probably say we need to end the space program.
My opinion, since this was probably an engineering/age problem, this should in fact spur us on to replace the shuttle fleet. They were never meant to be in service this long and there are plans for much more efficient, and much more safer mods of space flight. Take some of that 15 billion going to AIDs patients in Africa and reroute to NASA and overhaul our space fleet (okay, now that's cold-hearted but I don't care, it's my tax dollars).
When I take off in any aircraft, I go through that moment when I marvel that man can fly at all, let alone complete a flight safely. Space tremendously multiplies the risks, yet we do become complacent- such is human nature.
Still, despite what I tell myself, I'm having to work this morning to keep the tears in check.
This is going to sound cold-hearted, and it's not meant to be, but the Space Shuttle is risky business, and accidents are going to happen. People in this country have become soft over the years and don't realize just how dangerous space travel can be.
Not in the Palmdale/Lancaster/Edwards AFB, California area which is where the finally assembly of the shuttles and first test flights and landings was. Half the place is named in honour of test pilots of earlier programs and the Challenger.
Add my thoughts and prayers to everyone.