Is Minnesota changing?

[Vigilanteman]

Dayton won basically on two factors (a)name recognition-- he's been running for office all his life on inherited wealth from his Daddy because he can't make it in business, (b)Rod Grams supidassed son who got caught bedding an underage twit in the election year.

Two other noteworthy trends-- 7th District Congressman Conlin Peterson is the northernmost "Blue Dog" democrat and the first of his party to call on Gore to throw in the towel (after he lost the legal recount), 6th Distict Congresscritter who tried to market himself as a Peterson-like Blue Dog and suceeded in 2000, lost handilly in 2002.

[Norwell]

In the Granite State we hope to get rid of draft-dodging-Jeb-Bradley and replace him with somebody who voted for Reagan and not Mondale in 1984.

New Hampshire now sends four "Men" to Washington as representatives of the state. There is not a day of military service among them: isn't that a shame.

[Norwell]

www.klineforcongress.org

As far as I am concerned, Minnesota's biggest contribution to the conservative effort this year. Imagine, an incoming freshman Republican congressman who had balllzzzz enough to serve in a fighting formation of this country.

What a novelty!!! He'll actually speak with some credibility when it comes to military issues, unlike Weldon, Bradley, Shays, etc, etc. Money well spent for those of you who contributed.

[crasher]

I would also add Michigan, Washington, and Maine as probable Bush targets in 2004. He should practically ignore the 11 other states, plus the D.C.

[MinorityRepublican]

Hey, you wrote an excellent article, I would never had known that a Freeper wrote it. (Except for the part about RINOs)

[Brimack34]

We will be an interesting model too watch here in MN. Our Gov. was elected on a no new tax pledge. Per capita we have a larger deficit then California. With all the media telling Pawlenty he has too raise taxes, And still he has said no. Not even on gas or cigs.

[toast]

The conservative education of Minnesota has been a long, slow, tedious, and hard fought battle. There is a certain pride that runs through the state for everything "Minnesotan". There's been a long history with the Hubert Humphreys, Wendell Andersons, and Walter Mondales. They brought notoriety to the state, so the people voted for their party. AND RAISED THEIR CHILDREN TO VOTE FOR THEIR PARTY. They will vote democrat no matter who is put on the ballot. Case in point: Mark Dayton.

The gradual shift to conservative thought has more to do with the aging and death of the Democrats that reigned in the 50s and 60s.

The Wellstone Death Rally repulsed the moderate wishy washys enough to get up and actually vote. The thought that conservatives can retain power here for years to come may be wishful thinking.

[No Dems 2004]

"The Wellstone Death Rally repulsed the moderate wishy washys enough to get up and actually vote. The thought that conservatives can retain power here for years to come may be wishful thinking."

I understand your point, but, as I showed in the article, there have been long-term shifts in the electorate, long before 2002. So I do think that the conservative movement is waking up and receiving sustained support.

"The gradual shift to conservative thought has more to do with the aging and death of the Democrats that reigned in the 50s and 60s."

Could that mean that as the old Dems die off, then the state will become more GOP? That's what I think may be happening. The transformation is still young, but I don't think it's fleeting or short-term.

[GraniteStateConservative]

A place with such a strong urban presence as Michigan makes it a long-shot. Bush could be competitive in ME and WA if the Dems nominate someone who doesn't get environment-voters all excited-- Bob Graham for example.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Jeb Bradley isn't going anywhere. He did 10% better than Sununu did against the same opponent. He'll have enough money to turn any of his primary challengers into Gene Douglas. Even people who were credible challengers like John Stephen and Fran Wendelboe are now Bradley supporters. That race had plenty of candidates, but I saw the debates and they were all out of their league running for Congress.

Bradley is as vulnerable as Charlie Bass. If either lose, it means the whole state has gone Democrat. John Kacavas will run a credible race, but he'll lose.

[x]

Rather than vote like Massachusetts, Vermont or Hawaii, Minnesota will vote more like Iowa or Illinois or maybe even more like a conservative Western state. That seems natural, and it looks like Wisconsin has done about the same. Maybe Minnesota looked more liberal than it was because its Democratic politicians were national figures: Humphrey and Mondale, also Freeman, McCarthy and Wellstone.

Or maybe it's because the rural vote long went Democratic. Essentially conservative states like the Dakotas have elected Democrats to Congress because of agrarian concerns and price supports. Now that's not so much an issue in an increasingly urban Minnesota. Maybe the ethnic tie and solidarity between urban and rural Scandinavians has also been weakened.

[riri]

(BTW - you are the 94,760th FReeper to register BTW)

LOL, I just learned how to do that. You are 6004, I am impressed. I am mad at myself for lurking so long before I registered! I was disappointed to see I was 20,000something.

[No Dems 2004]

You've got some good points. MN has a way to go before it's something like Montana, Wyoming or even Colorado, but it's clear that the GOP runs most of its government now, and has been increasing it's representation in the state for quite a while. Minnesota is definitely drifting away from the Democrats.

"Or maybe it's because the rural vote long went Democratic. Essentially conservative states like the Dakotas have elected Democrats to Congress because of agrarian concerns and price supports."

Exactly. There are very few conservative states that will never vote for Democrats under any circumstance. Utah and Texas are a couple, but even they have competitive Dems sometimes. The most important thing is the voting trend over a longer period, like a decade.

[JohnnyZ]

A place with such a strong urban presence as Michigan makes it a long-shot. Bush could be competitive in ME and WA if the Dems nominate someone who doesn't get environment-voters all excited-- Bob Graham for example

Bush was competitive in 2000 when he didn't have 60+% popularity against a strong environmentalist in Maine and Washington. I fail to see how he will Not be competitive this go-around, as you suggest. And I don't think Michigan will become much more urban by 2004 than it was in 2000, when Bush lost by 4% on the strength of labor GOTV dwarfing ours. That's a long-shot??

Maybe this is all semantics, but I think y'all are being much too tentative. Bush is going for a landslide, which even if he doesn't get it will force the Rat to be on the defensive, spending all their $$ on the Left Coast, the Mid-West, NE and Florida and conceeding the rest of the country.

[x]

Wyoming and Colorado have a strong individualist streak going back to frontier days. Today, in Nevada and Arizona a lot of new people have moved in from states without such traditions and demand social services.

In Minnesota, the trend seems to be in the opposite direction. Their political ethos may be that of a Scandinavian village threatened with starvation: don't make waves, stick together, share everything, don't stand out or call attention to yourself too much. Economic growth and population mobility have modified this in the direction of modern commercial individualism.

In the 1960s Daniel Elazar studied the political cultures of various states in terms of individualism, traditionalism, and moralism. It looks relevant to your argument. Southern states and those with strong Continental European Catholic or Lutheran roots tend towards traditionalism. Some people might prefer collectivism or conformism to describe this type. Yankee or Puritan roots underly moralism. The individualist states are associated with the frontier or with the urban, commercial and pragmatic cultures of New York and Pennsylvania. See here for more.

[mwl1]

The Wellstone re-election number in 1996 was much closer than 51-42. It was more like 51-49... please re-check.

The article would also be bolstered by including numbers pertaining to Coleman's election over Mondale in November 2002.

There are four factors that are contributing to the GOP tide in Minnesota:

1. the population in the northern Iron Range part of the state, strongly leftist and DFL, is declining.

2. Depression-era New Deal and DFL Democrats are dying.

3. The only parts of the state that are experiencing and substantive population growth are the suburbs of Twin Cities, St Cloud, and Rochester.

4. Finally, the state has a strong pro-life Catholic population and these people finally are getting a clue that voting for RATS means no progress on this important issue.

Bush will target MN, IA, and WI in 2004. No free ride for the RATS in any of these states; he lost each by an eyelash in 2000.

[BaBaStooey]

As evidenced in 2000 and the 2002 Governor's race in Michigan, I can't see how the rest of the state can overcome Detroit's influence in statewide races. As long as the Dem can lock up 95% of the Motor City (as Gore did), Michigan is not winnable in 2004 under any circumstances. Usually I'm a bit more optimistic but thats just the way it is in Michigan.

[crasher]

The thing is MI, ME, and WA were about as good to Bush in 2000 as PA was. I don't understand why it will be different in 2004. If Bush wins the popular vote by more than 5 points in 2004, he will probably win all 4 states.

[crasher]

The thing is MI, ME, and WA were about as good to Bush in 2000 as PA was. I don't understand why it will be different in 2004. If Bush wins the popular vote by more than 5 points in 2004, he will probably win all 4 states.

[crasher]

The thing is MI, ME, and WA were about as good to Bush in 2000 as PA was. I don't understand why it will be different in 2004. If Bush wins the popular vote by more than 5 points in 2004, he will probably win all 4 states.