The fringe tends to be over-represented on FR.
As to November or 2004, neither you nor anyone else can predict with any level of comfort what's going to happen. Another terrorist attack, or clear evidence of Iraq-al Qaeda complicity, and your prognosis goes out the window.
If Congress isn't even going to be involved in the decision for an Iraq campaign, how would it affect those races one way or another? Even a surge of popularity for Bush doesn't necessarily mean he'll have long coattails.