FYI: I don't believe very much in polls. Especially if the race is close. The only one I will bank on is the poll taken on election day. The only one that really counts.
How about you?
After mid Nov the only one I'll pay attention to is the final vote total. Prior to the election, I'll maintain an interest in all polls from all sources, viewing each as having only 95% confidence, and knowing that a poll's sponsor will have an impact on the poll results.
For those who say polls mean nothing, they're not being realistic. They're certainly not a guarantee, but they do affect public perception/voter enthusiasm and fundraising.
Historical perspective? Go back and look at some recent Senate incumbents with re-elect numbers like Bob Torricelli. See how they fared. You can start with Rod Grams.