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SIMON CLOSING FAST! Insider poll numbers show tight race
National Journal's HOTLINE ^ | February 22, 2002

Posted on 02/22/2002 10:34:57 AM PST by ElkGroveDan

The Hotline

 

24

CALIFORNIA: Simon Poll Claims Momentum Swing

      A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll, conducted 2/17-18 for businessman Bill Simon (R), surveyed 600 likely GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4%; subsample: 349 highly likely voters; +/- 5% (release, 2/22). Tested: Simon, ex-L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan (R) and Sec/State Bill Jones (R).
GOP Primary Matchup
          LVs HLVs 2/10-11 1/23-24 11/01
Riordan   33% 31%    32%     45%    43%
Simon     28  31     24      18      5
Jones     14  14     10      13     16
DK/Other  22  24     34      25     36
 
              2/17-18      2/10-11      1/23-24      11/01
             Fav/Unfav    Fav/Unfav    Fav/Unfav   Fav/Unfav
Riordan      45%/25%      44%/21%      44%/13%     44%/ 8%
Simon        35 / 7       29 / 6       17 / 3       7 / 2
Jones        19 / 5       19 / 5       18 / 4      16 / 2
Note: "Likely voters" were those GOPers and indies who not only indicated they planned to vote in the 3/5 GOP primary, but also said they voted in either the '98 CA GOP primary or the '00 CA GOP primary. The "highly likely voters" are those folks who voted in BOTH the '98 and '00 GOP primaries. The breakdown of GOPers to indies was 85%-15%. The LV sample assumes a 53% turnout; the HLV sample assumes a 39% turnout.

      The poll also indicates that among those folks who have heard of both Simon and Riordan (63% of the 600 LV sample), Simon leads Riordan 38-31%, with Jones receiving 14% (release, 2/22).
San Francisco Chronicle's Marinucci and Wildermuth report on another poll, conducted by the pollsters for the Prop. 45 crowd (term limits measure) had the race, as of 2/13, Riordan 31%, Simon 27% and Jones 21%. And Paul Maslin, Gov. Gray Davis' (D) pollster, "said his most recent survey showed the race to be closing dramatically." He said that Simon is "very close" to Riordan among his sampling of likely GOP primary voters. Maslin: "Does Simon have momentum? Absolutely" (2/22).



Simon Questions Riordan's GOP Loyalty In New Ad
      Simon launched new TV ads "questioning" Riordan's "loyalty" to the GOP. The ad quotes Riordan calling ex-Pres. Clinton "the greatest leader in the free world" and saying he doesn't have a "love affair" with the GOP. Simon manager Sal Russo: "This ad shows that, while Bill Simon is busy running against Gray Davis, Dick Riordan is busy running against the Republican Party" (Marelius, San Diego Union Tribune, 2/22). Simon in the ad: "I'm a conservative Republican. My political heroes are Ronald Reagan, President Bush and Rudy Giuliani - certainly not Bill Clinton. I have a plan to balance the budget without raising taxes. And unlike Dick Riordan, I'm not ashamed to be Republican." Riordan spokesperson Margita Thompson said there is "more than a little hypocrisy in the ad, but mostly there's silence ... about Simon's spotty voting record in primary elections since he moved to California in 1990" (Simerman, Contra Costa Times, 2/22).


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: michaeldobbs
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This is AMAZING. People have not given California conservatives enough credit in recent years. Clearly we've just been waiting for the right candidate. GO BILL SIMON!!!!
1 posted on 02/22/2002 10:34:57 AM PST by ElkGroveDan
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To: ElkGroveDan
And Simon can probably pull Jones' voters 3 to 1 compared to Jones.
2 posted on 02/22/2002 10:42:33 AM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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To: .38sw; 1 FELLOW FREEPER; absalom01; aimhigh; Alas; ALOHA RONNIE; ambrose; americalost; Angelique...
WOW....PINGAROO!
3 posted on 02/22/2002 10:46:00 AM PST by ElkGroveDan
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To: ElkGroveDan
What's amazing is not that conservatives are supporting Bill simon -- he has obviously proven himself to be conservatively sound -- but that the press and liberal pundits are beside themselves. They think that you have to be liberal to win, and therefore Dick Riordan was there liberal Republican wet dream. He's everything a Democrat could want and more ... and he's a Republican! Wow! Wonders!

What the press REALLY wants is an end to the Republican party. Riordan was the fastest way to its demise. Now, they have Simon, not only a Republican, but a REAL Republican, and a (GASP!) conservative! Oh, no, what are we going to do! Don't those Republicans know that they are hurting only themselves? If they would just let us pick their nominee for them, they would be much better off.

Gag me.

Simon will appeal to a broad universe of voters because he is not a career politician, he is very bright, and he has real solutions to problems created or excerbated by the Democrats.

And, it will very difficult for Davis to wrap "right-wing extremist" around his neck because Simon is a charitable leader, a guy who has given his time and money to underprivledged kids.

Go Simon!

4 posted on 02/22/2002 10:49:54 AM PST by Gophack
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To: ElkGroveDan
Very good news! Hubby and I will be at the polls March 5 to cast our votes for Bill Simon.
5 posted on 02/22/2002 10:51:35 AM PST by .38sw
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To: Gophack
I just hope Jones throws his support behind Simon at the last minute. Anything but Riordan, dammit!
6 posted on 02/22/2002 10:52:27 AM PST by The Old Hoosier
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To: The Old Hoosier
I just hope Jones throws his support behind Simon at the last minute. Anything but Riordan, dammit!

I just don't see Jones dropping out. We have 11 days, and he's stubborn. He can't see the forest for the trees. However, looking at these numbers, Jones won't have to drop out. He'll just lose.

Go Simon!

7 posted on 02/22/2002 10:56:28 AM PST by Gophack
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Yes, I wish that Jones would withdraw. For the good of his stated beliefs...
8 posted on 02/22/2002 11:03:26 AM PST by eureka!
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To: Gophack
I just don't see Jones dropping out. We have 11 days, and he's stubborn. He can't see the forest for the trees. However, looking at these numbers, Jones won't have to drop out. He'll just lose.

Don't worry, Jones won't split the conservative vote, he doesn't have anything going for him other than name recognition.

And even that won't save him when he falls flat on his face on March 5th.

9 posted on 02/22/2002 11:08:31 AM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: eureka!
Is this winner take all, or a runoff format?
10 posted on 02/22/2002 11:08:54 AM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Winner is the GOP candidate against Grayout Davis...
11 posted on 02/22/2002 11:16:35 AM PST by eureka!
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Winner take all ... the winner runs against Davis in November.
12 posted on 02/22/2002 11:23:35 AM PST by Gophack
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist
Don't worry, Jones won't split the conservative vote, he doesn't have anything going for him other than name recognition.

He doesn't even have high name recognition outside of the Central Valley.

13 posted on 02/22/2002 11:24:09 AM PST by Gophack
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To: Gophack
Simon will appeal to a broad universe of voters because he is not a career politician, he is very bright, and he has real solutions to problems created or excerbated by the Democrats.

You're right. The only problem is that Bill Jones will most likely split the conservative vote, giving the GOP nod to DICK Riordan.

Bill Jones -- PLEASE DROP OUT OF THE RACE NOW AND LET THE CONSERVATIVE'S CHOICE RUN AGAINST THE LEFTIST RIORDAN!

14 posted on 02/22/2002 11:28:51 AM PST by SunStar
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To: Gophack
However, looking at these numbers, Jones won't have to drop out. He'll just lose.

And the votes he does receive should go to Simon, but won't. Say hello to GOP candidate DICK Riordan, the leftist mayor from L.A. who loves illegals and Democrats, is anti-death penalty, and pro-abortion. Thanks alot Bill Jones. You should drop out now and run against Babs Boxer in two years instead. Hoping and waiting...

15 posted on 02/22/2002 11:30:57 AM PST by SunStar
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Is this winner take all, or a runoff format?

A plurality is all that's needed. No runoffs in California.

16 posted on 02/22/2002 11:31:30 AM PST by SunStar
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To: Gophack
I don't understand Bill Jones.

He's stuck between a rock and a hard place. All the CA conservatives are supporting Simon. All the moderate-RINOs are supporting Riordan. Who's going to vote for Jones? Nobody! The guy is a total moron. The writing is right there on the wall - YOU'RE NOT GONNA WIN JONES, OK?

17 posted on 02/22/2002 11:32:03 AM PST by ServesURight
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To: Gophack
Wow, who are the Einsteins that decided winner-take-all was better than a runoff? Extremists afraid that it would be their only chance? Looks like it may backfire.
18 posted on 02/22/2002 11:32:50 AM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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To: SunStar
You should drop out now and run against Babs Boxer in two years instead.

Like I said, he just doesn't get it. With a Simon victory the CA GOP would be re-energized and he'll definately get the nod to take out Boxer. He's practically guaranteed unconditional support from Republicans everywhere in CA if he drops out and runs for Senate in 2004. Hell, he'll probably win in a landslide.

Oh well.....

19 posted on 02/22/2002 11:34:51 AM PST by ServesURight
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Great, conservatives get all worked up and obstinate, divided over some holy grail 'principal' de jour, while the liberals(including RINOs) continue their hold on power.
20 posted on 02/22/2002 11:35:13 AM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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