Just checked the 400 HR club: Dawson had 438, he'll get voted in ; Joe Carter had 396, that'll probably keep him out, like Dale Murphy at 398.
Looking to the future, McGriff has 417, he'll probably make it. Palmeiro has 400, he'll end with 500+ (!). But the real tough call will be Canseco, who's at 446. I don't know about him...
Actually Canseco at 469. With the way HR's are hit today I don't think 500 hr's should get a player automatically in the HOF. That's definitely the case with Canseco.