[cogitator]

But I have no doubt that the Democrats will win both governorships. I will be the most surprised man in TX if I am delightfully proved to be wrong tonight. I expect the networks to call both races within 15 minutes of the closing of the polls.

I really, really doubt a quick call in Virginia. As has been discussed before, Virginia GOP candidates consistently outperform their poll numbers. I'm hoping that there's a decision before the 11:00 News, but I won't be surprised if there isn't a decision by then. Weather is clear, so my prediction of an Earley victory by less than 1% stands. My "margin of error" (personally judged, of course) is probably 3%. So I'll also give my prediction uncertainty range:

Max bad: Warner 52%, Earley 48% Max good: Earley 54%, Warner 46%.

Speaking of the weather, the lack of rain here in the mid-Atlantic is putting us on track for a drought watch for December. So not only will the new Virginia governor have to be concerned about shrinking revenues, he'll have to be concerned about shrinking rivers.

[mrs9x]

I live in Charlottesville, and I think the problem for Warner is that he might have wider support than Earley (as indicated in the polls), but that support is much "softer" than the support for Earley. Most people I know who are voting for Earley know a lot about politics, hate dems, and would walk through a snake pit to vote for Earley. Warner's support, though, is more in the mushy middle. They only nominally follow politics, are swayed by sound bytes, but do not really care that much about which way the election goes. If these people stay home, look for an Earley win.